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AMD Zen 2 (Ryzen 3000) - *** NO COMPETITOR HINTING ***

OK, let me try this another way because I sometimes struggle translating my brain through my fingers and we've gotten sidetracked from the point I was evidently failing to make.

The entire reason I've gone on this tier vs core count thing is because of the notion suggested elsewhere on this thread that if AMD have an 8c/16t Ryzen 3000 that matches or beats the 9900K then AMD should and will charge 9900K money for it. I've argued that doing so would be counter productive to AMD's sales because that would see AMD significantly increase their CPU prices beyond the point which would make sense to the general consumer, especially in an era where perception and mindshare is still skewed heavily against AMD.

Price/performance ratio in and of itself is a nebulous thing without any context. What I could consider poor price/performance ratio could be great for somebody else. And by extension then, if price/performance ratio is driving your purchasing decision, surely then you need to consider the price/performance ratio of other products and of competitors to make an informed choice.

Then this "undercut Intel by 20%" thing came along and it's confused the issue.


What I am trying to get at is this...

Let us ignore Intel even exist for a moment. AMD's Ryzen product stack consists of 3 performance tiers: entry level 3, mid-range 5 and top-end 7. Each one of those tiers has a price range applicable to the market segment they are targeted at. My argument is that the performance of the Ryzen 3000 series relative to Intel is largely inconsequential to the price brackets AMD will put to market. It doesn't matter if the 3300 SKUs get released with 6 cores and start trading blows with a 9600K, AMD could not justify in the eyes of the general consumer why their entry level range has suddenly doubled in price by price-matching their competitor's closest-performing part.

Now yes, AMD will have to be competitive with Intel in both performance and price, but AMD simply couldn't set a price band based on price/performance ratio to their competitor, otherwise the prices go through the roof and nobody would buy anything.

The only reason Cinebench is even mentioned is because that's the only tangible thing we've seen which gives any indication of Zen 2's performance. And in that carefully-controlled demonstration, AMD have a product that can match Intel's current top part.


So instead of asking the question again, let me try and do numbers. Hopefully that might clarify what I'm trying to get at. For purely argument's sake, let's say we have performance parity between a Zen 2 core and a Coffee Lake core, and AMD increase core counts in each product tier for Ryzen 3000.

AMD could take a 6c/12t Ryzen 3 and price it favourably against a Coffee Lake i3 because they are analogous to each other as entry level CPUs. That would see a Ryzen 3 price not much higher than its previous generation because that is the general expectation of how much an entry-level CPU costs. The absolute performance of that Ryzen 3 in isolation, and the relative performance compared to the i3 is then irrelevant. There also wouldn't be a need to undercut Intel by a whole lot, if any, because AMD will have the superior product performance at a good price.

or

AMD could take a 6c/12t Ryzen 3 and price it favourable against a Coffee Lake i7 because they are analogous to each as similarly-performing CPUs. That would see a Ryzen 3 price almost double its previous generation, even with a 20% undercut on Intel prices. And if AMD's lowest performance tier suddenly costs twice it did, how crazy expensive are the 5s, 7s and possibly 9s cost?


To me, the latter is utterly ludicrous and simply not realistic. Intel were lambasted for the price of the 9900K, do you really think AMD would commit the same PR suicide with a new, potentially market-disrupting, product?

What you are saying is perfectly clear and IMO correct.

I'll add to it, Assuming AMD have the per-core performance for the right money i still have a set budget at around £200, if AMD put the price up significantly and offer an R3 12 thread part for £200+ with +15% per core performance i might not upgrade my 1600 because i'm not really gaining a lot, a 16 thread part for £220 yes, maybe as high as £240.
I do the same with GPU's, i'm not interested in Turing because my £300 to £350 budget in the form of an RTX 2600 only gets me +15%, what is the point in that? so i'll be hanging on the my GTX 1070 for a while longer.
 
AMD do need to brace themselves for Intel 10nm. I'm quite sure it will be good but likely expensive given all the delays and associated costs. Make hay while the sun shines, every sale now is one less for Intel given how infrequently most buyers upgrade.

Not sure what the future is in this context - 7nm is expensive currently which will hold back how much AMD can keep prices low anyhow. Intel seems to be refocusing a lot of its 10nm capabilities towards SoC/FPGA products and I'm not sure if it will appear in a main CPU line or whether that will be pushed to 7nm with 10nm mostly used for mobile/laptop products - they seem to be repurposing a lot of resources intended for 10nm towards 7nm now and making sure they can easily switch node on their 10nm intended designs to 7nm i.e. Sunny Cove.
 
7nm is expensive currently which will hold back how much AMD can keep prices low anyhow

But it's not though, at least not in the grand scheme of things. 7nm wafer costs are loads more expensive of course, but if you get significantly higher yield from that wafer then the overall price comes down. That's the beauty of the Zen 2 chiplet. Of course, this cost efficiency won't translate to monolithic designs, however small they be (i.e. Navi).
 
But it's not though, at least not in the grand scheme of things. 7nm wafer costs are loads more expensive of course, but if you get significantly higher yield from that wafer then the overall price comes down. That's the beauty of the Zen 2 chiplet. Of course, this cost efficiency won't translate to monolithic designs, however small they be (i.e. Navi).

Sure but the upfront cost is also significantly higher - currently more than 3x compared to 14/16nm. Also comparing nodes if the same approach i.e. chiplets is used then the advantage from yields only comes if you benefit from the area reduction, if you take advantage to increase performance or to some degree power efficiency you lose some of the potential increase in yield from area reduction.
 
7nm is expensive currently which will hold back how much AMD can keep prices low anyhow.

Isn't that the beauty of the 7nm chiplet design though, as single chiplet takes up very little area on the wafer, and therefore the price of each die is lower. Coupled with a much cheaper 12/14nm I/O die and you have the ability to keep the costs low, and yield high.
 
AMD do need to brace themselves for Intel 10nm. I'm quite sure it will be good but likely expensive given all the delays and associated costs.

10nm won't be anything significant or useful or helpful, for that matter. Just the n-time dies shrink of the original Sandy Bridge CPU that was launched in 2010/2011.
 
Isn't that the beauty of the 7nm chiplet design though, as single chiplet takes up very little area on the wafer, and therefore the price of each die is lower. Coupled with a much cheaper 12/14nm I/O die and you have the ability to keep the costs low, and yield high.

Yes, to illustrate this.

300mm Wafer cost $4000

Die size 10mm x 10mm (8 core) yield = 577 = $6.93 per die
Die size 20mm x 20mm (16 core) yield = 137 = $29.19 per die

So halving the size of the die (chiplets) gets you more than 4x the yields, so using 2x 8 core 10mm^2 dies costs you less than half of using one 16 core 20mm^2 die.

One could say AMD's CPU's are half the cost of Intel because they can.

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https://caly-technologies.com/die-yield-calculator/
 
Your 8 core dies are a 1/4 of the size of your 16 core dies there by the way. I guess there's an argument that the 16 core die would also have the I/O incorporated into but I'm not sure it would double the size of the core.
 
Your 8 core dies are a 1/4 of the size of your 16 core dies there by the way. I guess there's an argument that the 16 core die would also have the I/O incorporated into but I'm not sure it would double the size of the core.

You're right, its the power of 4. Cubed.
 
Try it with a 300mm2 core, ie, 2x 100mm2 8 cores, plus another 100mm2 for the IO die. gives a core about 17mm x 17mm, so not really that far away from what you've got there.


The IO die on Zen 2 is separate from the CPU cores and Cache, what AMD are doing is creating identical CPU Core + Cache chiplets and making the IO separately on the cheaper 14nm, the idea is that with smaller dies you have less chance of hitting defects on the wafer and in that way gain more yields than using larger dies.

15mm x 15mm = 256 dies
15mm x 30mm = 116 dies (x2 = 132 dies)

So by splitting the CPU down into 2 dies you effectively get an extra 12 16 core CPU's out of the wafer (2x 24 dies)

The larger the die the less you yield out of the same wafer, more chance of hitting defects.

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Sure but the upfront cost is also significantly higher - currently more than 3x compared to 14/16nm. Also comparing nodes if the same approach i.e. chiplets is used then the advantage from yields only comes if you benefit from the area reduction, if you take advantage to increase performance or to some degree power efficiency you lose some of the potential increase in yield from area reduction.
When same chiplet is used throughout whole product range that lowers upfront cost per single product.
Heck, upfront cost is likely lower than that of Intel for their lot higher number of different dies.

And if also next-gen consoles use same chiplet, like rumoured, that's further increase to volume sharing that upfront cost.
 
When same chiplet is used throughout whole product range that lowers upfront cost per single product.
Heck, upfront cost is likely lower than that of Intel for their lot higher number of different dies.

And if also next-gen consoles use same chiplet, like rumoured, that's further increase to volume sharing that upfront cost.

That too, instead of multiple die sizes they use the same 8 core chiplet right from the salvaged 6 core Ryzen R3 right up to the 64 core EPYC server CPU's, its a case of how many of the same 8 core dies to use, rumors are all the new consoles will be using Zen 2 and with that probably the same dies with iGPU's glued to the PCB via infinity fabric.

One singular product for the entire range of everything AMD make, this include using and mixing together CPU chiplets that have a defective core or two, its how you get the CPU's that are not 8 or multiple of 8 core CPU's, all this also reduces cost as they don't need to run and design multiple wafer printers.
 
Seems that the Zen and Zen+ prices are starting to fall quickly now, I wonder if AMD are reducing the prices to get rid of stock? Examples are, R5 1600/X - £109/119, R5 2600 - £138, R7 1700 - £139, R7 2700 - £185. There seems to be several places dropping prices not just single instances.

This then brings the question back to Zen2 based CPU's, an R5 2600 when clocked at 4.2GHz is a pretty decent CPU, 6 cores and 12 threads and a low price, the Intel 9400F (6c 4.1GHz with MCE) at £150 is the direct competitor so it would seem that the middle ground is going to be a big deal, easily shown by the volume of R5 2600's that are current sold. There is a strong argument for pricing whatever single chiplet Zen2 designs come out at a semi-aggressive price, in order to keep the volume and momentum in AMD's favour, I have a feeling that we'll be seeing £179-199 non-X parts with 8c/16t and a clock speed slow enough to make them appealing to the value segment, with hopefully some headroom in them for those of us who enjoy overclocking and releasing that extra VFM.
 
Over here was seeing 79 dollars for a 1600 !!! That is insanely good value.

Will be getting a new CPU regardless of whether I have pulled the trigger on a new GPU yet or not. These are gonna make everything faster for rendering for me, and just general perf. I can hand the old one off to my wife or daughter.
 
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