Is this factually correct or just conjecture?
It's rational thought rooted in the masses of evidence of the same process happening now.
It seems to me that there is intelligence involved in this process.
Why? There's neither need of nor evidence for any intelligence being involved.
What decides what is a good mutation or a bad mutation?
Nothing. There is no decision made. A decision requires intelligence and there isn't any. Evolution is just a process that happens. It has no mind, does not think, does not care and does not decide.
The process has been explained millions of times by millions of people and continuously ignored by creationists:
Premise: There are naturally occuring variations between individuals as a result of mutations. Note that "mutation" has a different meaning in biology than in day to day English - it's just a change, a difference, and doesn't have the connotation of something major and negative (although it can be either or both).
Premise: Some of those variations can be inherited.
Premise: Some of those variations will give an individual an advantage that might result in them having more offspring that survive to adulthood and have offspring of their own.
Conclusion: Over enough generations, variations that confer an advantage in breeding will often become more common within a population by simply outbreeding the others.
How can you see a pattern if it doesn't exist?
For humans, very easily indeed. Our minds are very strongly orientated towards patterns and will interpret almost anything into a meaningful pattern. Even, most famously, meaningless splodges of ink on paper.
Does natural selection have the power to make choices?
No, because it doesn't have any mind. It's not an entity. It's a process.
You are presuming that a person is doing it all, which is why you're using words like "decision" and "choice". That's not what evolution is. It's as mindless as, for example, water flowing downhill. It's just a process. The water doesn't choose to go downhill or uphill, nor does it remain stationary until someone choose what direction it should flow in.