'Contact lost' with Malaysia Airlines plane

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Stolly said:
People seem to think every inch of airspace is being scanned constantly by radar. This is not the case. It would be prohibitively expensive and in any case not technically possible given that most radar systems are line of sight.
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Correct. I was speaking to a chap in work today who has done some work out in that part of the world, and according to him a lot of the area control centres operate on secondary surveillance radar only - no primary radar.
If that is the case, if the aircraft suffered an electrical problem which disabled the transponder, or of the transponder was turned off (legitimately or not), the aircraft would disappear from radar screens without a trace. Without primary radar coverage and a functioning transponder, there is no way to trace the aircraft using only SSR.
 
Iraklis F.C. said:
he should be flying along the coast then, where they could see the lights. Where is the plane then, surely if it flew along the coast it should have been spotted by now
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So I'm back on PPrune this evening catching up with todays thoughts and ruminations..
I had to smile at this...
:eek::eek:
Now I'm as perplexed as everybody else as to how, where and why, I'm open to any rational idea at this stage. Admittedly favouring hijack with the passport issue earlier perhaps it's just back to something more mundane like a badly crippled aircraft in some way with a major electrical problem (still wouldn't rule out a bomb which crippled avionics but not their ability to fly). For a long time now people have been saying why on earth are they on the west side of the pennisula (when the first news of search efforts in the Straits of Malacca hit)... I have no reason to disbelieve if these guys thought they could get the aircraft back safely they would try their damned hardest to do so. Yes if there was a raging fire onboard they might have tried WMKN (TGG) but from FL350 there's a heck of a lot of height to lose in a short distance. Same for WMKC (KBR) and anyone who's been there it's not much of an airport in a populated area. WMKP is more logical for a rapid descent to land in a straight line - if their controls were compromised who wants to man-handle a 777 more than necessary except a turn to finals and we've have no idea if they could get the gear out for example so even PEN might only be a second choice. Bear in mind all these airports are closed for the night (PEN maybe not, but very low key) at this time so crashing on the field is a last resort action especially since there appears to be a lack of communication they've no way of announcing their imminent arrival. I wouldn't be surprised if the crew felt KUL was their best, safest option and on top of that (and for the life of me can't fathom why nobody posting here didn't say it earlier) there is a Lost Comms approach procedure for KUL which this crew would have known. If they were down to basic night VFR flying then how best to get to KUL and comply with the procedure... find the west coast, turn south and fly until you pass KL. They could line up for a straight in similar to a KIKAL2 for RWY14L or give ATC a chance to guess what they are doing (if they hadn't already) and head down towards the lights of Malacca to come back for RWY32R approximating a LAPIR2 arrival. Makes logical sense if they were comms crippled so why people think it's stupid for the authorities to be searching the West Coast is a bit rich. If the guys were trying to get back to KUL then it's sad they might have been within reach of KUL and dropped it in the drink for whatever reason.
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I'm not the only one with the same view then :D \o/
 
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Scuzi said:
Correct. I was speaking to a chap in work today who has done some work out in that part of the world, and according to him a lot of the area control centres operate on secondary surveillance radar only - no primary radar.
If that is the case, if the aircraft suffered an electrical problem which disabled the transponder, or of the transponder was turned off (legitimately or not), the aircraft would disappear from radar screens without a trace. Without primary radar coverage and a functioning transponder, there is no way to trace the aircraft using only SSR.
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The real questions are about the military primary radar capability. Could a comms-silent jet cross Malaysia without detection and unchallenged ? Particularly when an airliner is missing. Malaysians would surely feel the military are neglecting their duties if that were the case.
 
Tuppy_Glossop said:
The real questions are about the military primary radar capability. Could a comms-silent jet cross Malaysia without detection and unchallenged ? Particularly when an airliner is missing. Malaysians would surely feel the military are neglecting their duties if that were the case.
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It wasn't missing while it was possibly crossing Malaysia, it was still expected at the destination.

We did see how an exponentially more capable military had no real idea where four civilian aircraft were on September the 11th 2001, is it really too much of a stretch to think the Malaysian military has similar problems ?
 
Scuzi said:
Correct. I was speaking to a chap in work today who has done some work out in that part of the world, and according to him a lot of the area control centres operate on secondary surveillance radar only - no primary radar.
If that is the case, if the aircraft suffered an electrical problem which disabled the transponder, or of the transponder was turned off (legitimately or not), the aircraft would disappear from radar screens without a trace. Without primary radar coverage and a functioning transponder, there is no way to trace the aircraft using only SSR.
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WTF do you know about radars and planes?
 
Stolly said:
It wasn't missing while it was possibly crossing Malaysia, it was still expected at the destination.

We did see how an exponentially more capable military had no real idea where four civilian aircraft were on September the 11th 2001, is it really too much of a stretch to think the Malaysian military has similar problems ?
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US air space is significantly busier is it not?
 
I suggest the 777 in question is at the bottom of the ocean (no idea where) and everyone on board is dead.

Can anyone add to this?
 
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