Donald Trump

[Freakbro]

The point I made in my post explained all this, but to requote myself - The "silent Majority" are generally centralists...[snip]

We have had the exact same situation here - the "silent majority" voted Tory when no-one predicted they would, and when they did they caused a landslide.

Well, that's not true for a start, it was the Labour base voting Tory (due to Brexit) when they never had before that caused the "landslide" result, not the middle swing voters, who by definition vote one way or the other anyway.

To be an equivalent to the US it would be the Democrat base all of a sudden coming out and supporting Trump and that's not likely to happen is it.

 

[ianh]

Well, that's not true for a start, it was the Labour base voting Tory (due to Brexit) when they never had before that caused the "landslide" result, not the middle swing voters, who by definition vote one way or the other anyway.

That's not who the "silent majority" are, I thought that was obvious. The silent majority aren't that tiny section of "swing voters", its anyone whose party is just "expecting" them to vote one way without question making them the ignored, the bypassed, the sidelined who all tend to be fairly centrist etc and that is EXACTLY who caused a landslide here when they voted, and that is EXACTLY who the Democrats are ignoring in their rush to appeal to the already Democrat voting middle class because "well Black people and Latino's will always vote Democrat" - "Well the poor will always vote Democrat", "Well women will always vote democrat" etc - they were wrong in 2016 and instead of learning from that and UK 2019, they're just repeating the same mistakes but louder this time.

To be an equivalent to the US it would be the Democrat base all of a sudden coming out and supporting Trump and that's not likely to happen is it.

Just like Labour heartlands would NEVER vote Tory, would they...................WOULD THEY

 

[Freakbro]

Just like Labour heartlands would NEVER vote Tory, would they...................WOULD THEY

Of course they would, because the issue being voted on was Brexit which distorted the usual dogmatic attitudes. I dont see a Brexit equivalent in the US to cause the same distortion.

Hell, most of the dye in the wool Tories I know didn't vote Conservative this time because of Boris and Brexit

 

[Jono8]

When Trump wins In a landslide soooo many echo Chambers will be bust. Its just like our own election night all over again, those on the "left" just point blank refuse to see that the "silent majority" who tend to be fairly centralist just don't want them and, just like in 2016, when reality slaps them in the face with yet another Trump win in 2020 they'll still be absolutely blind-sided by it, just like our Labour is right now, because they only ever listen to people who agree with them and shout nasty "-ist" names at those they disagree with without ever actually listening.

It's amazing that rational people genuinely can't see the woods for the trees with all of these events (Brexit, UK 2019, Trump 2020 etc).

Why did the democrats win the popular vote 53 to 45 (so 8 point win) in 2018?

Why did Trum lose the popular vote by a few million first time round?

Why has he averaged low 40s approval for basically his whole presidency?

He may eek out an electoral college win again like last time, but I cant for the life of me work out how you think it will be a "landslide". Unless you have the same bizarre definition of a landslide as the republicans in the house (his win was 46th highest win out of 58 elections)..That is in the lowest 21% of results.

Absolutely NOTHING suggests that he will win a "landslide", and he wont.

 

[Rroff]

Of course they would, because the issue being voted on was Brexit which distorted the usual dogmatic attitudes. I dont see a Brexit equivalent in the US to cause the same distortion.

Hell, most of the dye in the wool Tories I know didn't vote Conservative this time because of Boris and Brexit

Yet every time they interviewed someone from those constituencies and the survey done by one of the Labour people Brexit while a factor was usually around 3rd down the line with concerns about JC and Momentum usually at the top.

I don't think Brexit warped things as much as some want it to be - there was quite an effective campaign of poisoning the well when it came to JC in those areas on top of Conservatives saying all the "right" things though I don't believe they will deliver for those people.

 

[ianh]

Hell, most of the dye in the wool Tories I know didn't vote Conservative this time because of Boris and Brexit

Which is why the Tories didn't get a landslide victory with the biggest in loss for Labour in nearly 100 years - Oh thats right, thats EXACTLY what happened - you do know that don't you, I mean genuinely, you do know what happened, you can see just how big the Tory victory was can't you, you do know how massive the Labour loss was don't you - I have to ask because your quote makes it look like maybe you think the Tories did badly, because of your "non-Tory voting" Tory friends?

Sorry if that sounds condescending in any way, I genuinely am, but that quote just doesn't match reality.

Absolutely NOTHING suggests that will be the case.

Thats your opinion, I gave mine in great detail with all the reasons why I believe things will go the way I predict but in the end only the result of 2020 will show who was right or wrong, but at least I'm willing to see both sides, even if seeing both leads me to believe I can see the result. If the echo chamber stays strong then a lot of people are in for yet another "shock result that no-one saw coming" "

 

[VincentHanna]

Their landslide was huge mainly due to the brexit leave vote being highly concentrated toward the tories, whilst the brexit remain vote was split between Labour, Lib Dems and SNP.

Blyth Valley – leave
Workington – leave
Barrow & Furness – leave
Blackpool South – leave
Leigh – leave
Bolton N.E. – leave
Bury South – leave
Hyndburn – leave
Burnley – leave
Keighley – leave
N.W.Durham – leave
Bishop Auckland – leave
Darlington – leave
Sedgefield – leave
Stockton South – leave
Redcar – leave
Penistone – leave
Dewsbury – leave
Wakefield – leave
Scunthorpe – leave
Great Grimsby – leave
Lincoln – leave
Don Valley – leave
Rother Valley – leave
Bassetlaw – leave
Bolsover – leave
Ashfield – leave
Gedling – leave
Peterborough – leave
Ispwich leave
Derby North – leave
Stoke on Trent – leave
Newcastle – under – Lyme – leave
Crewe and Nantwich – leave
Wrexham – leave
Clywd South – leave
Vale of Clywd – leave
Delyn – leave
Yns Mons – leave
Wolverhampton N.E. – leave
Wolverhampton S,W. – leave
Dudley North – leave
Birmingham, Northfield – leave
Stroud – remain
Bridgend – remain
Kensington – remain
Colne Valley – remain

Of the 4 ‘remain’ seats, all but 1 were seats where Labour shocked Tory incumbents in 2017 by overturning big majorities to win by a fraction. Emma Dent Coad in Kensington and Chelsea lost by just 150 votes – and only because an ex-Tory LibDem sucked away anti-Tory votes.

Plus the way the FPTP system works.

 

[Lopéz]

When Trump wins In a landslide soooo many echo Chambers will be bust. Its just like our own election night all over again, those on the "left" just point blank refuse to see that the "silent majority" who tend to be fairly centralist just don't want them and, just like in 2016, when reality slaps them in the face with yet another Trump win in 2020 they'll still be absolutely blind-sided by it, just like our Labour is right now, because they only ever listen to people who agree with them and shout nasty "-ist" names at those they disagree with without ever actually listening.

It's amazing that rational people genuinely can't see the woods for the trees with all of these events (Brexit, UK 2019, Trump 2020 etc).

I'll be very surprised if Trump is not reelected.

I was disappointed when we voted to leave the EU, but I wasn't surprised.

The UK election was the same - "everyone I know plus all their pets voted Labour" etc etc etc - don't confuse a noisy few with a true majority.

Trump will win the next election and remain in power, I might even put money on it (and I'm no gambler)

 

[Roar87]

Corbyn was the reason Labour lost so badly, he's utterly unelectable for most people. Disregard all of the IRA, Marxist, and antisemitism stuff, the man is a weakling. He couldn't even tell us what his position on Brexit was in the leadership debates, people talk about Boris lying, Corbyn just refused to answer. I wouldn't vote for him if you paid me and I bet a lot of people felt the same.

 

[Caracus2k]

Ultimately if the dems can't get Trump out via this latest attempt they know they are in trouble.... with a 2020 election result that would be far from certain.

The internal antics and policy platforms we have seen from the majority of the Dems candidates might have gone done OK with the party faithful but are likely to go down rather less enthusiastically with the general populace when even the more 'moderate' candidates are promising to hurt economic growth and jobs to pursue some variation of the GND.

Hilliary was a garbage candiate, who thought she was a shoe in after Obama, but the current crop make even her look look like a reasonable prospect .

Personally I hope they Dems get another bloody nose next year, electorally speaking and then can have another four or so years trying to figure out why, in the face of one of the most revilled POTUS's ever, they still suck so much.

 

[Jono8]

Which is why the Tories didn't get a landslide victory with the biggest in loss for Labour in nearly 100 years - Oh thats right, thats EXACTLY what happened - you do know that don't you, I mean genuinely, you do know what happened, you can see just how big the Tory victory was can't you, you do know how massive the Labour loss was don't you - I have to ask because your quote makes it look like maybe you think the Tories did badly, because of your "non-Tory voting" Tory friends?

Sorry if that sounds condescending in any way, I genuinely am, but that quote just doesn't match reality.



Thats your opinion, I gave mine in great detail with all the reasons why I believe things will go the way I predict but in the end only the result of 2020 will show who was right or wrong, but at least I'm willing to see both sides, even if seeing both leads me to believe I can see the result. If the echo chamber stays strong then a lot of people are in for yet another "shock result that no-one saw coming" "

But your opinion is based on nothing but feelings.

Mine is based on actual evidence and numbers.

Trump does not command, and has never commanded the support of the majority in the USA.

In fact, in comparison to our politics, he is roughly as popular as remaining in the EU is, when the popular vote for both is taken into consideration.

 

[Jono8]

Corbyn was the reason Labour lost so badly, he's utterly unelectable for most people. Disregard all of the IRA, Marxist, and antisemitism stuff, the man is a weakling. He couldn't even tell us what his position on Brexit was in the leadership debates, people talk about Boris lying, Corbyn just refused to answer. I wouldn't vote for him if you paid me and I bet a lot of people felt the same.

This. Labour would have stood a great chance in this tears election if they actually had a half decent leader.

 

[Jono8]

I'll be very surprised if Trump is not reelected.

I was disappointed when we voted to leave the EU, but I wasn't surprised.

The UK election was the same - "everyone I know plus all their pets voted Labour" etc etc etc - don't confuse a noisy few with a true majority.

Trump will win the next election and remain in power, I might even put money on it (and I'm no gambler)

But popular vote wise, Clinton was roughly as popular as leaving was, and Trump was roughly as popular as remain was.

The two things are not good comparisons, if you are hoping to draw a correlation between Trump and Brexit by talking about a "true majority"

A week ago, a "true majority " voted for parties offering a 2nd referendum....

 

[chroniclard]

Corbyn being useless.
Tory lies and propaganda campaign with absolutely proven huge media bias.
Labour manifesto being too lefty.
Brexit frothers.

All adds up.

 

[ianh]

But your opinion is based on nothing but feelings.

Mine is based on actual evidence and numbers.

Trump does not command, and has never commanded the support of the majority in the USA.

In fact, in comparison to our politics, he is roughly as popular as remaining in the EU is, when the popular vote for both is taken into consideration.

Sorry, that's President Trump to you, you know the President of the US who won the election in 2016, you do know that right

 

[Jono8]

Sorry, that's President Trump to you, you know the President of the US who won the election in 2016, you do know that right

Lol who speaks like that? He isn't a king.dont embarrass yourself.

He isn't a President to me anyway as I dont live there. I will call him whatever the hell I want.

I also never said he didnt win the 2016 election. He didnt win the majority support of the american people though, and his approval rating has averaged 40ish percent for his entire tenure. He is not a popular president..never has been and never will. He is likely to end up being a one term impeached president , who lost the popular vote and could end up having some of the worst average approval numbers ever. Quite sad really.

 

[Jez]

Lol who speaks like that? He isn't a king.dont embarrass yourself.

He isn't a President to me anyway as I dont live there. I will call him whatever the hell I want.

I also never said he didnt win the 2016 election. He didnt win the majority support of the american people though, and his approval rating has averaged 40ish percent for his entire tenure. He is not a popular president..never has been and never will. He is likely to end up being a one term impeached president , who lost the popular vote and could end up having some of the worst average approval numbers ever. Quite sad really.

Lets quote this now, as i am with Lopez and ianh. While i am not confident enough to gamble on it, my surprise would be on the side of him not being re-elected, for all of the above reasons covered by Ianh.

 

[Lopéz]

A week ago, a "true majority " voted for parties offering a 2nd referendum....

Except they didn't, because that's not how our political system works, and everyone knows this.

That's like saying "Ahhhh, but if there was no offside rule, West Browich Albion would have theoretically won the Premier League 9 times in a row."
But there IS an offside rule, and so participants of the sport DO play to it, it affects their decisions, the way they strategise, it affects everything.

The " true majority " didn't vote for anything of the sort, unless they were voting in a fictional voting system under some form of mass delusion.

And I'm saying this as a pretty staunch remainer!

 

[Jono8]

Lets quote this now, as i am with Lopez and ianh. While i am not confident enough to gamble on it, my surprise would be on the side of him not being re-elected, for all of the above reasons covered by Ianh.

I wouldn't want to bet on it either as he clearly has die hard base of about 40% that will be with him whatever happens.

What i am certain of, is that it wont be a "landslide". Its likely he will lose the popular vote again as well. Do you think he has GAINED much support over his term?

 

[chroniclard]

I wouldn't want to bet on it either as he clearly has die hard base of about 40% that will be with him whatever happens.

What i am certain of, is that it wont be a "landslide". Its likely he will lose the popular vote again as well. Do you think he has GAINED much support over his term?

Almost certainly lost a significant amount of support. The only people left supporting him are the hardcore base who wont vote for any other party regardless.

Predict record voter turn out and landslide loss for Trump.