Energy Prices (Strictly NO referrals!)

[Mercenary Keyboard Warrior]

Oh 100% it will be and I would have happily moved to the EV if it was viable. It is just for the majority very far from viable at the moment. And yes indeed it technically isn't 100% carbon free to purcahse second hand, however if nobody did and everyone just moved to EV which is kinda how this stated then the ICE cars would indeed be going to decay and scrapped. So there is still a market where those whom can't afford the total package of home charging and EV + possibly suplimentary carbon offsetting would still be less carbon positive purchasing a cheaper ICE vehicle second hand.

However buying new ICE I feel for the most part (other than the relatively large outlay for said EV) is short sighted. So there is really two markets, second hand = ICE generally and new = EV. The problem being even at the cheap end a new ICE can be had for £14k compared to £27k for EV. So just to move into the market at the lowest end you are £13k over where they need to be. This also seems on average similar for anything low to mid range EV vs ICE. It is also a vehicle that offers 150-200miles range depending on weather conditions.

If you are buying second hand ICE then generally what depreciation though? They already have and the rate has slowed significantly even compared to the general lower rate of depreciation of EV? And what about maintenance? They are similar in terms of brakes, tires and such, in fact there is an argument that the higher wear of tires and pads could be possible with EV due to the extra weight so an increased cost, however filters and fluids generally reduce in comparison and thus why a similar cost in maintenance is there.

I am not sure why you think longer lifespan either. My previous car was a 2007 vehicle that lasted till 2022 so 15yrs. In that time I would expect an EV to have the battery replaced also at many thousands currently. There is so much to compare it would take pages but my point was more that it is not as black and white in terms of EV is just instantly better like so many suggest.

There is still plenty of depreciation in ICE second hand unless your buying very low down on the scale. Most ICE will be 45% at 3 years.
Most ICE are scrapped when the cost of a repair is more than the value of the vehicle, thats around 10 years.

Maintenance on a Tesla (for example, legacy are a bit variable) is pretty non existent until those routine parts wear out. Maintenance on an ICE is far more frequent, yes you can lower the cost, but its always a risk.
Its 100% not a similar cost.

Oh god not the new battery pack thing again. For starters, most of them are now nigh on unreplaceable, there are Teslas out there on darn high mileage with battery deg in the sort of 20% range.

 

[413x]

All cars are super expensive now too. The 207 auto I have was 3k during early covid. To buy it as it was then ,now, it would be 5k!

That just pushes everyone's EV uptake even further away.

I'm not sure what price point would make me bite. But I do know it's a long way off. And at the moment further away than a year ago due to the insane 2nd hand market

 

[Mercenary Keyboard Warrior]

Its more than a couple of journeys a year. Its more like once a month. Into the hills for mountain biking or to beach in west Wales. Or Central Wales.

Its enough to be annoying, but not enough to justify.

If you put it into perspective the current car cost 3k. Because its used to adhoc the cost per trip its low. If it was 10k? Its just not worth it. And this is probably the cheapest 2nd hand type of EV? But old EV. (talking old leafs). I could be wrong but not checked in a while.


I very much would love an EV. But unfortunately the economics just don't stack up. If I needed to commute daily. I'd have one now.

The stick has to get a lot lot bigger for me to switch. 2nd hand ICE are just too cheap when outlay is (for me) the biggest factor. Just don't have 10k+ to drop on a car thats going to annoy me.

Yeah its clearly too early in the cycle yet for you.

 

[Curlyriff]

If you are not buying a new car, you can’t really compare it to a new EV, buy a used one. You can get used 2019 long range Model 3s for a very sensible price these days.

Granted, if you don’t have home or workplace charging, it’s a bit of a non starter doing 50k km/year at the moment.

However those doing 50k km a year are exactly the sorts of people we need to get into EVs as fast as possible not those who drive 10 miles a week. Burning all that fuel is the obvious major source of carbon and other emissions that harm everyone’s health.

PS, there is no way a diesel is 129g/km in the real world.

Indeed and I would love to go EV if it was viable cost and charging wise. It isn't though. Also I actually get 135g/km looking at it. Last month I averaged 55mpg so 7440/55 = 135.27g/km. Car dependant of course and people doing short trips in a desiel likely only getting 45mpg or even less would mean 165g/km real world. So in someways getting those of desiel on shorter trips where town driving is worse for them is better than those whom motorway drive at a better mpg.

Also where it is densely populated in town and you want CO2 emissions to reduce most for health reasons makes sense, again compared to motorway driving.

 

[413x]

Yeah its clearly too early in the cycle yet for you.

Hopefully (for us all) prices will settle down over time. I'd say its now so far off i now can no longer even say "it will be in x years" thought it would be in 5 years. I'm not even sure of that.

What I don't want to do is wait until I'm trapped when fuelling stations are closing down and EV stations are more common.

Basically where by the stick people are forced into it, driving prices up.


Its going to be a long time. Who knows. Maybe government will do another program at some point. But yeah. For me, it's so far away anything could happen in between.


Battery longevity isthere, range is there (ish) in the newer models, infrastructure is coming fast. Just that elusive price for second hand is far far away.
Only way that comes is probably cheap Chinese imports. So many people have bangers. The forum demographic probably doesn't. But all these banger drivers probably want another banger. That's a long time for EVs. Maybe they'll be called sparkers?

 

[Mercenary Keyboard Warrior]

Indeed and I would love to go EV if it was viable cost and charging wise. It isn't though. Also I actually get 135g/km looking at it. Last month I averaged 55mpg so 7440/55 = 135.27g/km. Car dependant of course and people doing short trips in a desiel likely only getting 45mpg or even less would mean 165g/km real world. So in someways getting those of desiel on shorter trips where town driving is worse for them is better than those whom motorway drive at a better mpg.

Also where it is densely populated in town and you want CO2 emissions to reduce most for health reasons makes sense, again compared to motorway driving.

This exactly.
Its why your also seeing more and more LEV zones etc being proposed.
For people city driving etc then EV is a big advantage for all of us.

Diesel is also perfect for people doing lots of mileage. The problem is that once the high mileage people get rid they often end up being run in a poor state in those inner city/town areas as people trying to do bangernomics look at the 55mpg.

 

[bigmike20vt]

Indeed but looking at it like this the cheapest new ICE cars are around £14k, the cheapest new EV cars with very limited range (around 150-200miles) is £27k. Huge difference. For me 120 miles only just about gets my trip from home to work and back as example so I would not risk that.

Second hand the EV drops to £15k but the ICE drops to £8k so it all depends where that budget is. Then with EV if you are going second hand currently the battery replacement and depending on mileage can be huge consideration. It will get there but the consumer purchase ability is very much limited.

it is annoying. in china there are some amazing deals on new EVs.. most dont make it over here, or if they do they fetch a premium.

MG are the only ones really offering "affordable" EVs but even they cost more here than elsewhere.

they shouldnt really...... the manufacture costs apparently there is not much in it......... it is just the car companies dont make as much on them in after sales stuff. the other issue is

VW for instance like to claim they are almost comparable with thier vehicles.. the problem is they coompare their ID3 with their very high up the range golfs.

i love gadgets on my cars but really there needs to be an EV without all the toys on it.......... an EV does not have to have any extras beyond safety stuff, all the toys are added on to try to hide the fact we are being ripped off.

china have the right idea WRT electric cars.

https://www.carscoops.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Average-Price-Of-EVs-4.jpg

 

[Curlyriff]

EVs rarely need new brake pads or disks, the biggest issue my mate has with his are them rusting up due to no use..... EVs tend to brake using regen ........ the tyre wear is a theoretical good point but not sure in reality it is noticable

there are far fewer moving parts and hoses etc to wear out or rot in an EV...... sure ICE cars can last 20 years+ but i dare say if you were to get lets say a gen 1 zoe from 2012 with 100k on the clock and a 2012 clio petrol with 100k on the clock and to compare life time servicing and maintanence costs, i would wager the zoe would win easily.

Of couse it depends on mileage, if you are doing lower mileage the difference for that is less. If higher yearly mileage that increase could be significant.

And to a point but over the 15yrs my previous car was used I replaced tires, pads, brake fluid, air-con regas, filters, a clutch (the only notable cost wise) and general oils but otherwise it didn't need anything. I put 250k miles total on that vehicle before retiring it to WBAC. I can imagine the Zoe would be similar but I 100% would have had a battery replacement in that period negating the cost of the oils and filters that are ICE specific. The other things would all have been done otherwise.

 

[Hawk Tuah]

i wsould likely just have a gallon or so in it and that way the odd time i do hit the petrol engine i would burn it.

Not sure that'd work for an older hybrid. They're more akin to an ICE with a kers than a proper PHEV that you can switch to exclusively use electricity.

 

[Mercenary Keyboard Warrior]

Hopefully (for us all) prices will settle down over time. I'd say its now so far off i now can no longer even say "it will be in x years" thought it would be in 5 years. I'm not even sure of that.

What I don't want to do is wait until I'm trapped when fuelling stations are closing down and EV stations are more common.

Basically where by the stick people are forced into it, driving prices up.


Its going to be a long time. Who knows. Maybe government will do another program at some point. But yeah. For me, it's so far away anything could happen in between.


Battery longevity isthere, range is there (ish) in the newer models, infrastructure is coming fast. Just that elusive price for second hand is far far away.
Only way that comes is probably cheap Chinese imports. So many people have bangers. The forum demographic probably doesn't. But all these banger drivers probably want another banger. That's a long time for EVs. Maybe they'll be called sparkers?

They will come down. Supply and demand will force it.
Right now used Ev prices are double propped up with demand just for what they are, but also the chip issue.

The other thing that may influence EV coming down faster is if tech and offerings improve. If you can buy a new Tesla M3 for example in 5 years thats got 25% more range for the equivalent price of a current Tesla M3 then the older one will have to see a price/age/range correction

 

[bigmike20vt]

Not sure that'd work for an older hybrid. They're more akin to an ICE with a kers than a proper PHEV that you can switch to exclusively use electricity.

i would only ever consider a plug in hybrid capable of full EV driving.... even if only 20 miles it would cover me to work.

i could always buy an i8

(I wish! but a man can dream)

 

[Uther]

it is annoying. in china there are some amazing deals on new EVs.. most dont make it over here, or if they do they fetch a premium.

MG are the only ones really offering "affordable" EVs but even they cost more here than elsewhere.

they shouldnt really...... the manufacture costs apparently there is not much in it......... it is just the car companies dont make as much on them in after sales stuff. the other issue is

VW for instance like to claim they are almost comparable with thier vehicles.. the problem is they coompare their ID3 with their very high up the range golfs.

i love gadgets on my cars but really there needs to be an EV without all the toys on it.......... an EV does not have to have any extras beyond safety stuff, all the toys are added on to try to hide the fact we are being ripped off.

china have the right idea WRT electric cars.

https://www.carscoops.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Average-Price-Of-EVs-4.jpg

The Chinese EV's will be the game changer in the market I reckon. They are undercutting the main players by thousands of pounds. I like the MG4 for example a lot, but am not ready to jump yet.

 

[Mercenary Keyboard Warrior]

Of couse it depends on mileage, if you are doing lower mileage the difference for that is less. If higher yearly mileage that increase could be significant.

And to a point but over the 15yrs my previous car was used I replaced tires, pads, brake fluid, air-con regas, filters, a clutch (the only notable cost wise) and general oils but otherwise it didn't need anything. I put 250k miles total on that vehicle before retiring it to WBAC. I can imagine the Zoe would be similar but I 100% would have had a battery replacement in that period negating the cost of the oils and filters that are ICE specific. The other things would all have been done otherwise.

250k on an ICE is quite exceptional. And with only a clutch quite darn lucky.
Last time I looked the average scrappage mileage is under 100k.

When I used to have a transport guy reporting to me and a fleet of hundreds of cars, most had a significant repair in their 4 year lease. Now sure some of that is that people will often treat a car thats not their own as well, but even so...

 

[413x]

They will come down. Supply and demand will force it.
Right now used Ev prices are double propped up with demand just for what they are, but also the chip issue.

The other thing that may influence EV coming down faster is if tech and offerings improve. If you can buy a new Tesla M3 for example in 5 years thats got 25% more range for the equivalent price of a current Tesla M3 then the older one will have to see a price/age/range correction

This is true.

Tesla being the go to and doing this big price drop is going to force everything down. Even though I actually do not like the look for teslas obviously they are a good car.

It'll force second hand down, competitors down. Everything. Right now supply is propping everything up. But in 2 years? Who knows.

 

[Mercenary Keyboard Warrior]

This is true.

Tesla being the go to and doing this big price drop is going to force everything down. Even though I actually do not like the look for teslas obviously they are a good car.

It'll force second hand down, competitors down. Everything. Right now supply is propping everything up. But in 2 years? Who knows.

My gut feel is your going to see a 10-15% premium on Ev compared to ICE at around 3 years once the chip based blip has played out.
So where as a typical 3 year old ICE will be 45-50% of list (historically) an Ev will be more like 55-65%.
Around 10 years most ICE are down to 5-10%, I suspect Ev will be more like 15-25% and will hold there as the value of the recoverable metals will mean at that sort of price people would buy them for salvage.
There is still a lot to play out on the salvage side though

 

[KillBoY_UK]

250k on an ICE is quite exceptional. And with only a clutch quite darn lucky.
Last time I looked the average scrappage mileage is under 100k.

When I used to have a transport guy reporting to me and a fleet of hundreds of cars, most had a significant repair in their 4 year lease. Now sure some of that is that people will often treat a car thats not their own as well, but even so...

I wouldn't say it is exceptional personally half the problem is many people don't maintain their car eps in later life then they break and don't want to pay much more for repairs.

Sure 250k it more likely with a Honda/toyta but i would say vast majority of normal cars if maintain well can go into the high 100k

 

[HungryHippos]

I wouldn't say it is exceptional personally half the problem is many people don't maintain their car eps in later life then they break and don't want to pay much more for repairs.

Sure 250k it more likely with a Honda/toyta but i would say vast majority of normal cars if maintain well can go into the high 100k

I'll be honest I know nothing about my car except how to drive it, and have no inclination to learn more.

I get it MOT and serviced, correct some things that way, but really I think most people just don't have the knowledge or desire to spend a lot of time maintaining their cars.

 

[bigmike20vt]

I wouldn't say it is exceptional personally half the problem is many people don't maintain their car eps in later life then they break and don't want to pay much more for repairs.

Sure 250k it more likely with a Honda/toyta but i would say vast majority of normal cars if maintain well can go into the high 100k

it comes down to value at end of the day.

if a specific car has sentimental value to you or its out of production and you cant get them any more..... or what ever then absolutely.

but at some point with all cars (EVs too) you will get to that point where it needs a new part (ICE - gearbox, clutch, turbo, cylinder head, DPF, or for EV , most likely battery) which will cost 3 figures.... and the car is maybe not worth much more than that.

and you just dont want to throw good money after bad.... i have had 1 money pit myself and despite the car looking tidy, the constant worry of what may go wrong next took all the fun out of driving it.

sometimes its easier to cut your losses and buy something a few years newer.

the thing is.... for most EVs that point i think is far further down the road than with most ICE cars. the data is already piling up to prove clarkeson type comments about battery dead after 3 years was utter FUD.... but we will need to wait another 5 years or so to get more complete life of vehicle data because most EVs from 2012 are still on the road.

also, people like to judge leafs for their battery degredation, the thing is, just about EVERY EV on the market has less battery degredation than the V1 leaf.

 

[Mercenary Keyboard Warrior]

I wouldn't say it is exceptional personally half the problem is many people don't maintain their car eps in later life then they break and don't want to pay much more for repairs.

Sure 250k it more likely with a Honda/toyta but i would say vast majority of normal cars if maintain well can go into the high 100k

Its exceptional in the real world.
Because many cars dont have the usage pattern that means they are economic to get to high 100s or into the 200s. You pretty much need to still be doing 20K+ per annum later in their life.
Where as for most the unreliability is too much of a risk at that higher mileage so they end up doing less mileage and hence they don't ever get into the high mileage area before a significant uneconomical repair comes along.

 

[ci_newman]

I wouldn't say it is exceptional personally half the problem is many people don't maintain their car eps in later life then they break and don't want to pay much more for repairs.

Sure 250k it more likely with a Honda/toyta but i would say vast majority of normal cars if maintain well can go into the high 100k

For me, when I've gotten rid of cars it wasn't because of their mileage but because the rest of the car is falling apart around the engine.

The last car I got rid of was a 15 year old Leon. The engine ran sweetly despite having 140k miles on it, but the rest of the car was rusting away around it. If you exclude the engine / motor, the rest of the car still needs to survive the test of time too.