Energy Prices (Strictly NO referrals!)

Mercenary Keyboard Warrior said:
Its because they are forward purchasing and Cornwall see the contracts

I wasn't really looking at Q2 and Q3 but really more Q4 where the costs for a mainly electric household will be similar to now, but with no support
A gas heating using household will see an improvement on real rates from this year, but only a minor increase if you consider/assume the £400 wont be there
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ah yeah...... you are right
 
New saving session is ready for tomorrow on octopus.. 5:30-6:30pm

Every kw of electric saved = £2.25 in credit. You do have to opt in etc.

There’s a way to “play” the system a little.. as copied from pistonheads, example below :

A lot of people think the formula is based only on your average use for that time of day, it's not. There's an in-day adjustment.

If the power saving hour is 5-6pm it works out like this:

Minimum energy consumption 12-1pm
Maximum energy consumption 1-4pm
Irrelevant energy consumption 4-5pm
Minimum energy consumption 5-6pm
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So for tomorrow I’d bump the above by 30mins and “play” the system to maximise reward. Apparently most people get paid more than they spend through the day. I’ve not done it before but let’s see how it goes.
 


The forward purchasing doesn't explain the reduced q3/4 prices, equally the q2 prices - let's have some critical thinking
must be material aspects, like the french fixing their reactors, new De/Es lng terminals, Rough storage, projections on ukraine war, russia reducing capacity to 3rd parties, new renewable farms, that come into play.
 
jpaul said:
The forward purchasing doesn't explain the reduced q3/4 prices, equally the q2 prices - let's have some critical thinking
must be material aspects, like the french fixing their reactors, new De/Es lng terminals, Rough storage, projections on ukraine war, russia reducing capacity to 3rd parties, new renewable farms, that come into play.
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It comes after the benchmark European price for natural gas hit an 18-month low, after a mild winter reduced demand for heating and kept Continental gas storage levels high.

Tom Edwards, a senior modeller at Cornwall Insight, said that “barring another major crisis”, it looked as though prices would settle at a new level that was higher than before the Ukraine crisis but far below the worst peaks of the past year.

He said: “All things being equal, it looks like we're probably not going to return to the spikes that we saw last winter.

“That was the market trying to reshape global supply chains and to a large extent those global supply chains have now been reshaped.”

Kathryn Porter, an energy consultant and founder of Watt Logic, added: “We have now moved past the worst phase.”

www.telegraph.co.uk

£800 plunge in energy bills to hand Hunt £11bn Budget boost

Drop comes as gas prices fall to their lowest level in 18 months
www.telegraph.co.uk www.telegraph.co.uk
 
We have been having a voluntary price cap at home on £7 per diem. Based on a £219 monthly DD.

Today with no heating on at all we have used £2.54. This will be our target usage from now unless we have a cold snap again. Approximately £80 per month two persons in three bed semi house.

Looking foward to price competition and switching again promised by Guardian.
 
grudas said:
New saving session is ready for tomorrow on octopus.. 5:30-6:30pm

Every kw of electric saved = £2.25 in credit. You do have to opt in etc.

There’s a way to “play” the system a little.. as copied from pistonheads, example below :



So for tomorrow I’d bump the above by 30mins and “play” the system to maximise reward. Apparently most people get paid more than they spend through the day. I’ve not done it before but let’s see how it goes.
Click to expand...
I won't lie.... I am tempted to game the system but I just can't bring myself to do it. whilst I may not be a massive do gooder deliberately gaming it for personal profit just feels wrong to me in the current crisis

energy is at its cleanest past 8pm so deliberately using loads of power from say 3:30-5:30 when it is still potentially pretty dirty just seems so wrong just to make a few quid 5:30 to 6:30.
that said I am fortunate that I am not struggling to pay my bills. it's different for those close to the edge but those who are comfortable really shouldn't do it imo.
that said..... the blame does really lie with a very flawed and obviously exploitable system.

I don't understand why the 5:30-6:30 one does not for instance look at the hrs AFTER 6:30 to work out the pay, where energy is cleaner (and cleaner = cheaper)
maybe I am just sour because I make nothing on these things because I use zero power during the day and you can't reduce nothing ;)
 
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If people play the system enough they will just stop doing it. That won't stop most people though because why on earth would you worry about anyone else when you can save £5. As Mike says, I don't need the money so I won't be trying to game the system at all. Just feels wrong.
 
Yep I am with 200sols on this

It was a dumb implementation, using an existing mechanism for generators that basically couldn't game to any notable degree, and instead of creating a new one more suited to domestic they just stuck to the same.
However you have to consider its not easy to create a system that cannot be gamed for domestic use.

I look at it this way. I won't use energy I wouldn't have used. I will only do things I would have done, such as dishwasher, charging my batteries etc. But I will move them into that window if I can.

If enough people game it there is a pretty good chance they will come up with a better system next time. They need to since it misses one the biggest benefits they could take, people with home batteries who could supply during these peak periods.

The other angle is that when you consider the point that carving off the peak is the absolutely worst generation, the dirtiest and most expensive then your still doing your bit.

My line is drawn at using energy for no point, such as a fan heater pointing out an open window. Thats dumb and morally wrong.
Morally moving usage is precisely what they ask you to do.
Whilst we insist on charging most people the same for an expensive grid generated unit at 6pm as a cheap to generate one at 3am then they are going to struggle to develop a system that is not gameable.
We need to get time of use based charging far more on the radars of people and actually start the transition.
Would be limited need for these sessions then as the most value conscious consumers would switch most of their usage every day.
 
I’ve shifted stuff. But inside I feel dirty as it’s stuff I would normally do at 21:30 when my go faster 7.5p starts.

I’m out in day so just set dishwasher and washing machine to 13:30 start. Last one I made £2.45. But prob cost £1 in electric
 
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HungryHippos said:
What they should do is pay you for drawing less from the grid over the span of the whole 24 hours, so actively encouraging less use for the day as a whole.

Something like that.
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That seems a bit too wide of a window to me.
But I could get behind say -5 to +5 hours. Eg 5:30-6:30pm session would have all energy usage from 12:30-11:30pm included in the calc.

The other option of course is to cap or limit the impact of the in day adjustment.
Eg cap it to 50% of that individuals grid usage from last 10 days instead of taking it in its entirity (spelling :( )

Of course we could also start to penalise those using most in the highest demand window as well.
Que the "but I absolutely must run the washing machine, dishwasher, 3x tvs, tumble drier, cook the dinner at 6pm, on the dot, I work dontchaknow " crew ;)
 
in day adjustment was conceived to accomodate increased needs due to bad weather on that day, which means customers demand would increase on average,
so an ambient(the Met) temperature input on the formula seems most appropriate

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article that explain ongoing gas supply liability for winter 23, https://www.newstatesman.com/business/2023/02/uk-fix-gas-storage-problem :
government dropped out of £150m deal to improve Rough above 20% its capacity (1%of uk needs) it would not be done for winter 23 anyway ..
so we just have Quatar investement to boost lng terminal capacity by 25%

not a strong position,
cornwall cap just looks at the supply, but if the demand were hiked due to tough winter and you exhaust the storage , you have to reduce demand
 
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