Energy Prices (Strictly NO referrals!)

[Haggisman]

Take two foreign holidays a year instead of 3? Not spend £lol at Christmas?

Of course they have a lot to lose, the last thing they will want to be is out on the streets instead of in their cushy 4 bed detached in the suburbs. For the middle classes credit rating is everything but fortunately they tend to have a lot of disposable income (well they did!) and it’s unlikely they will be making heat or eat decisions.

I'd love to know what sort of household income you guys consider as being "middle class"? Based on these posts I'm guessing £100k+?

They'll still have everything to lose, just much lower spending power. I see it at work, several people in my department know it's coming, haven't done anything to combat the rises and just shrug and accept that it'll cost what it costs. Never underestimate the power of apathy and outright laziness

I've no idea what'll happen, there'll certainly be a lot of complaining after the October cap change the same as there was this April. There was a lot of noise after the April rise but that settled down with in a few weeks*. There might be a big kick off, but I won't be surprised if there isn't.

*I'm talking about the general public, not people in threads like these. One of the girls in the office genuinely asked me "what price rises?" when I mentioned it the other week, she had no idea, her husband pays the bills.

There absolutely will be people who will lose "everything" important to them when mortgage payments start to fall behind and they start to spiral into increasing debt trying to stay afloat. It certainly won't be on a mass scale, but to claim it's not going to happen is every bit as much "putting your head in the sand" as those people who aren't preparing for it.

The few hundred £/month disposable income a large chunk of those middle class "nice house with a big mortgage, car on finance, kids in the local schools, white collar job" have is very rapidly dwindling, and I doubt many are getting pay rises to match, so if these rises keep coming, households previously managing just about fine with a few luxuries are soon going to find themselves struggling for essentials, even after cutting back.

 

[413x]

At the moment it still hasn't been seen the true impact as people are still on their fixed rates for mortgage and energy. In around 18 months a lot will soon realise. I have noticed a lot of head in the sand people though.

My friend who has a mortgage had absolutely no idea about the mortgage rates going up. Probably one who reacts to deal ending rather than reactive.

So so many people have no idea what's coming.

Even people who know can't conceptualise the figures. This average figure for elec/gas is such a poor way to convey cost to people

 

[Mercenary Keyboard Warrior]

The "interesting" thing is right now the ways its going these energy bills could be as dramatic to the economy as COVID

I mean the thing they wanted to avoid with COVID was people losing their jobs and the knock on effect on the economy
That same thing is going to happen with a lot of the same areas being the ones impacted
The knock on effect being the same, a spiral of pain and job losses

We managed to find so much to get through COVID and yet the current response is pretty much meh.

 

[413x]

I'd love to know what sort of household income you guys consider as being "middle class"? Based on these posts I'm guessing £100k+?



There absolutely will be people who will lose "everything" important to them when mortgage payments start to fall behind and they start to spiral into increasing debt trying to stay afloat. It certainly won't be on a mass scale, but to claim it's not going to happen is every bit as much "putting your head in the sand" as those people who aren't preparing for it.

The few hundred £/month disposable income a large chunk of those middle class "nice house with a big mortgage, car on finance, kids in the local schools, white collar job" have is very rapidly dwindling, and I doubt many are getting pay rises to match, so if these rises keep coming, households previously managing just about fine with a few luxuries are soon going to find themselves struggling for essentials, even after cutting back.

I think jobs is the biggy.
Some certainly will lose it all. Those on edge of mortgage affordability, high ltv, single income
But start throwing in job losses. Actual numbers of jobs and doesn't matter if you earn 30 or 100k. You'll be in trouble.

We couldn't manage if I lost my job and couldn't find something comparable

 

[MadMossy]

Current cost per therm is £375, which equates to roughly £12.80 per KWh, as my daily use is ~6KWh a day that's around £77 during summer, as the price caps are based on the prior 6 months costs, so based on that alone if the price continues to rise as it is, come October, I think £3200 odd is being generous.

 

[Foghorn Leghorn]

I'd love to know what sort of household income you guys consider as being "middle class"? Based on these posts I'm guessing £100k+?



There absolutely will be people who will lose "everything" important to them when mortgage payments start to fall behind and they start to spiral into increasing debt trying to stay afloat. It certainly won't be on a mass scale, but to claim it's not going to happen is every bit as much "putting your head in the sand" as those people who aren't preparing for it.

The few hundred £/month disposable income a large chunk of those middle class "nice house with a big mortgage, car on finance, kids in the local schools, white collar job" have is very rapidly dwindling, and I doubt many are getting pay rises to match, so if these rises keep coming, households previously managing just about fine with a few luxuries are soon going to find themselves struggling for essentials, even after cutting back.

Do you see that bit where I said "I don't know what's going to happen?" well, that.

Of course there'll be some who lose, there always is and no one has said any different, the majority wont they'll adjust their spending and get on with life.

Apologies for the middle class, I meant to type middle earners.

 

[Mercenary Keyboard Warrior]

Current cost per therm is £375, which equates to roughly £12.80 per KWh, as my daily use is ~6KWh a day that's around £77 during summer, as the price caps are based on the prior 6 months costs, so based on that alone if the price continues to rise as it is, come October, I think £3200 odd is being generous.

I thought this cannot be right, googled it and a therm is roughly 29.3kwh.
So the current market price is as you say roughly £12.8 per kwh. Yikes!

EDIT, just found that the prices they are quoting are in pence not pounds!
So its 100th of that, so retail for gas is 12.8PENCE right now before you add any other costs

"

UK natural gas futures were trading around the 350-pence-a-them mark"​

 

[413x]

When the BBC end an article

"hope for a mild winter"

you know things are grim

 

[ltron]

This should be treated with caution, but some are now forecasting average UK energy bills to go up another 97% from the current level by January (to an average of £3850) if Russia greatly reduce the supply of gas to Europe. 65% above the current level in October was already crazy but this would really take the biscuit if it were to happen and the government would surely fall I would think: https://www.theguardian.com/money/2...ussia-cuts-gas-supply-further-europe-pipeline

 

[413x]

This should be treated with caution, but some are now forecasting average UK energy bills to go up another 97% from the current level by January (to an average of £3850) if Russia greatly reduce the supply of gas to Europe. 65% above the current level in October was already crazy but this would really take the biscuit if it were to happen and the government would surely fall I would think: https://www.theguardian.com/money/2...ussia-cuts-gas-supply-further-europe-pipeline

That's impossible to reconcile that price.

I mean, what can be done?
It will decimate, absolutely decimate us.

 

[Foghorn Leghorn]

Even people who know can't conceptualise the figures. This average figure for elec/gas is such a poor way to convey cost to people

Yup.

I've a spreadsheet I update each week for my gas and electricity readings (sad I know). Average gas consumption for January over the last four years is 2400 kWh, last year I paid £104 @ 4ppKwh, with the estimated October figures that same gas use will cost approximately £350 @ 14ppkWh. Going into 2022 my gas use for a year was around £550.....

 

[MadMossy]

I thought this cannot be right, googled it and a therm is roughly 29.3kwh.
So the current market price is as you say roughly £12.8 per kwh. Yikes!

And the thing is if the price goes to about £500 which is what the market rate hit when Russia invaded the Ukraine, that becomes around £18/KWh, it would push my bill up to over £100 during summer alone, and probably close to £200 during the winter if I had the heating on (which I bloody well won't). Single person in a 1 bed flat, with minimal energy use, as I said about 6kwh a day is my average which generally consists of just the fridge freezer a shower and PC being used, maybe about 20-30 minutes of oven/microwave/grill being used per day. Neither of which I could really not use, well maybe the PC but without any form of entertainment I'd go mental, specially over winter where daylight is limited and so is my cycling!

 

[ltron]

That's impossible to reconcile that price.

I mean, what can be done?
It will decimate, absolutely decimate us.

I know, somehow the French are able to freeze bills until at least 2023 (and they only had an increase of 4% in electricity and 12% in gas bills in April) whereas our government can't stop these massive increases which compound in brutal fashion.

 

[Haggisman]

Apologies for the middle class, I meant to type middle earners.

I'm not sure that makes a difference - an increase of ~£400+/month over the last 12 months on purely essential bills (e.g. energy/housing/food) isn't exactly trivial to anyone who could be classed as either middle class or middle earner, unless - as I said - you're starting the "middle earner" bracket at £100k

 

[Mercenary Keyboard Warrior]

I know, somehow the French are able to freeze bills until at least 2023 (and they only had an increase of 4% in electricity and 12% in gas bills in April) whereas our government can't stop these massive increases which compound in brutal fashion.

Partial state ownership vs let the free market decide

 

[413x]

I know, somehow the French are able to freeze bills until at least 2023 (and they only had an increase of 4% in electricity and 12% in gas bills in April) whereas our government can't stop these massive increases which compound in brutal fashion.

They will be paying for it somehow.
Unless France has direct nationalisation of full integrated gas extraction, it will be paying for it.

 

[200sols]

They've just paid 10billion euros to nationalise EDF.

 

[413x]

They've just paid 10billion euros to nationalise EDF.

EDF own nuclear power stations right? No idea on gas?

 

[Foghorn Leghorn]

I'm not sure that makes a difference - an increase of ~£400+/month over the last 12 months on purely essential bills (e.g. energy/housing/food) isn't exactly trivial to anyone who could be classed as either middle class or middle earner, unless - as I said - you're starting the "middle earner" bracket at £100k

No it's not an insignificant rise and I suspect the true rise for most after October will be closer to £600pm.
Id suggest a middle earner would be in the region of £50k, on that kind of wage you're certainly going to feel it and you're going to have to cut back considerably to cover it but at that kind of wage if you can't cut back your discretionary spending (sky, netflix, gym, takeaways, nights out etc) and possibly trim back savings/pensions contributions to cover it then you were quite possibly living beyond your means.

 

[SDK^]

Take two foreign holidays a year instead of 3? Not spend £lol at Christmas?

Of course they have a lot to lose, the last thing they will want to be is out on the streets instead of in their cushy 4 bed detached in the suburbs. For the middle classes credit rating is everything but fortunately they tend to have a lot of disposable income (well they did!) and it’s unlikely they will be making heat or eat decisions.

This is probably us
We just got solar to avoid being hit with £LOL energy charges