Energy Prices (Strictly NO referrals!)

[jpaul]

Can you imagine the monotonous rich diet on a cruise ship and lack of exercise - purgatory
Spain Spanish health service excepted, or you need an extended family.

Laptop (forgot to turn this off)

Some web sites with active content eg. ebay/amazon have heavy power consumption, first sign is usually obtrusive active cooling noise,
even with add-ons putting background tabs to sleep sometimes you leave the active tab on the wrong site.

 

[McPhee]

Here's a barmy reality; come October, it's likely to be cheaper to run an efficient petrol hybrid than an EV.

Take the Hyundai Ioniq Hybrid as an example. Honest John's Real MPG average is 68 miles per gallon. At £1.80 per litre, that's 12p per mile.

Now consider its EV iteration. Maybe 4 miles per kWh in winter after accounting for losses. So the break-even point is 48p per kWh!

If we're looking at 55p per kWh or more, petrol prices could be pushing £2/litre and running costs would be broadly similar.

 

[delta0]

I can't see a retirement visa on the list, which one do they apply for?

You are looking at the work ones that’s why. It’s the non lucrative visa. Anyway this is well off topic.

 

[touch]

Take the Hyundai Ioniq Hybrid as an example. Honest John's Real MPG average is 68 miles per gallon. At £1.80 per litre, that's 12p per mile.

How do you work out the mpg of a plug in hybrid? Is it purely the fuel used or some sort of calculation to take into account the electricity usage too?

 

[Simon]

Here's a barmy reality; come October, it's likely to be cheaper to run an efficient petrol hybrid than an EV.

Take the Hyundai Ioniq Hybrid as an example. Honest John's Real MPG average is 68 miles per gallon. At £1.80 per litre, that's 12p per mile.

Now consider its EV iteration. Maybe 4 miles per kWh in winter after accounting for losses. So the break-even point is 48p per kWh!

If we're looking at 55p per kWh or more, petrol prices could be pushing £2/litre and running costs would be broadly similar.

It’s why a cheap overnight rate is critical asap

 

[silversurfer]

Is 40p/7.5p cheap enough, its only for a few hours. Seems really not much leeway, I know someone with EV and is eligible for a 10k loan but cba. I think they have to get the hard hit of the October bill to motivate themselves into the hassle of quotes and work for solar panels, peoples mindset is at 27p till the day its not there.

 

[Surveyor]

You are looking at the work ones that’s why. It’s the non lucrative visa. Anyway this is well off topic.

You seem to be referring to the non-working residence and long-term residence visas which are in the link I provided. These have a number of requirements and restrictions.

 

[Simon]

Is 40p/7.5p cheap enough, its only for a few hours. Seems really not much leeway, I know someone with EV and is eligible for a 10k loan but cba. I think they have to get the hard hit of the October bill to motivate themselves into the hassle of quotes and work for solar panels, peoples mindset is at 27p till the day its not there.

Yes cause you are pulling 7kWh for 4 hours just for your transport. Massive saving over ICE (not ignoring £1k for a charger) Can also time dishwashers and washing machines.


AND in October everyone gonna be paying more than 40p all day round

 

[delta0]

You seem to be referring to the non-working residence and long-term residence visas which are in the link I provided. These have a number of requirements and restrictions.

Yes we don’t work when we retire. Anyway keep on topic.

 

[413x]

I wrote this in SC.
But I think this thread is more active.

Just thinking of the apocalypse coming.
I believe someone said Eon made 3-4bln?

Well. What's coming is truly going to wipe that out.
Seems like no government help. This is some rough maths..




... Reports say (sky source) 6 million homes have 200 of debt.

So assume these homes will take this new figure 3.5-4k as mainly debt.
And that maybe they pay a bit. Let's say they pay 500-1000 , leaving 3k debt added?
With that alone you're talking 3000*6000000.

18bln.

And that's excluding everyone who isn't already in debt falling into debt.

18bln for the first year alone. Not sure if all the suppliers are gonna to last.

 

[delta0]

I wrote this in SC.
But I think this thread is more active.

Just thinking of the apocalypse coming.
I believe someone said Eon made 3-4bln?

Well. What's coming is truly going to wipe that out.
Seems like no government help. This is some rough maths..




... Reports say (sky source) 6 million homes have 200 of debt.

So assume these homes will take this new figure 3.5-4k as mainly debt.
And that maybe they pay a bit. Let's say they pay 500-1000 , leaving 3k debt added?
With that alone you're talking 3000*6000000.

18bln.

And that's excluding everyone who isn't already in debt falling into debt.

18bln for the first year alone. Not sure if all the suppliers are gonna to last.

I suspect the government knows this but may be prepared to step in to write that off if insurance can’t cover it. They aren’t going announce this because more people would probably stop paying I imagine and they want to keep that bill down. Could a default event of major energy suppliers have a similar impact to banks? I’m not sure but it could hurt the economy in other ways.

 

[413x]

I suspect the government knows this but may be prepared to step in to write that off if insurance can’t cover it. They aren’t going announce this because more people would probably stop paying I imagine and they want to keep that bill down. Could a default event of major energy suppliers have a similar impact to banks? I’m not sure but it could hurt the economy in other ways.

Yeah they must know. Its not to difficult to predict.

But I do wonder how they will handle it. I mean this is definitely in the realms of complete market failure. They must expect this. By that I mean they must be prepared to take on UK power distribution. Its more important than the banking crisis arguably

Is octopus next?

No idea who's the weakest of the big boys.

 

[delta0]

Yeah they must know. Its not to difficult to predict.

But I do wonder how they will handle it. I mean this is definitely in the realms of complete market failure. They must expect this. By that I mean they must be prepared to take on UK power distribution. Its more important than the banking crisis arguably

Is octopus next?

No idea who's the weakest of the big boys.

That would be a real shame is Octopus had issues. I would have thought them being solar and wind dominated that they would have the most predictability in costs but who knows.

 

[413x]

That would be a real shame is Octopus had issues. I would have thought them being solar and wind dominated that they would have the most predictability in costs but who knows.

I think all bets are off.
I don't think any of the big 6 really have a massive difference in numbers. So potentially all in the same Boat.

 

[delta0]

Centrica just bought $8.5bn of gas from the US for the UK. That should help avoid those blackouts being talked about (at least the ones in 2026 ). I wonder how much gas that actually bought. https://www.reuters.com/business/en...ns-lng-deal-with-delfin-midstream-2022-08-09/

 

[touch]

I believe someone said Eon made 3-4bln?
Well. What's coming is truly going to wipe that out.
[...]
18bln for the first year alone. Not sure if all the suppliers are gonna to last.

That 18bln debt you've calculated will be split between all suppliers?
And it's annual whereas the Eon profit is for 6 months.
Seems manageable to me? I don't think it's going to be the apocalypse you're predicting. (But not saying it'll be all plain sailing either).

 

[413x]

That 18bln debt you've calculated will be split between all suppliers?
And it's annual whereas the Eon profit is for 6 months.
Seems manageable to me? I don't think it's going to be the apocalypse you're predicting. (But not saying it'll be all plain sailing either).

Yeah split between all (6?).

But that 18bln is a low figure. And assumes no one else gets into debt. This will happen.

And its year on year until this (if this) settles down.


I agree its not clear how it's going to pan out.
The profit from payers could easily mitigate losses. No idea.

But centrica's mkt cap is only a few bln. So its Potentially vulnerable?


Going to be an intense couple of years for these big boys.

 

[touch]

Also remember that "debt" isn't the same thing as "loss" here.
Some of it will be written off but a lot will be recovered too.

 

[wildman]

Also remember that "debt" isn't the same thing as "loss" here.
Some of it will be written off but a lot will be recovered too.

true, but debt turns to loss if the company has primarily debtors on its books that have no hope of ever paying it back in the short to mid term, they can send the debt collection agencies around but if there is no money then there is no money. Lets be honest the average person on min wage or on average or below average wage / state pension is not going to be able to fork out north of 4K for energy, and the prices based on the futures index aren't going down anytime soon for at least the next 18 months. So any company with a small market cap and insufficient liquidity to keep operating while waiting for that stabilisation when people can actually start paying down the debt is basically staring down the barrel of going under.

EDF will likely be OK as their market cap is tens of billions and they are basically getting taken back into national ownership in France. Same of EON they have a large enough market cap. Some of the smaller players that only just survived the first round will probably die by the time we get into Jan / Feb next year unless the treasury hands out billions to them. I don't see how this ends well for anyone gas/oil extractors.

Octopus might not see the winter out if over half of their 3 million customers can't afford to pay the full wack.

Government is sleep wlaking into another disaster while they are consumed with who can give the most Thatcher like performance to the coffin dodger members who are voting the next leader.

 

[delta0]

true, but debt turns to loss if the company has primarily debtors on its books that have no hope of ever paying it back in the short to mid term, they can send the debt collection agencies around but if there is no money then there is no money. Lets be honest the average person on min wage or on average or below average wage / state pension is not going to be able to fork out north of 4K for energy, and the prices based on the futures index aren't going down anytime soon for at least the next 18 months. So any company with a small market cap and insufficient liquidity to keep operating while waiting for that stabilisation when people can actually start paying down the debt is basically staring down the barrel of going under.

EDF will likely be OK as their market cap is tens of billions and they are basically getting taken back into national ownership in France. Same of EON they have a large enough market cap. Some of the smaller players that only just survived the first round will probably die by the time we get into Jan / Feb next year unless the treasury hands out billions to them. I don't see how this ends well for anyone gas/oil extractors.

Octopus might not see the winter out if over half of their 3 million customers can't afford to pay the full wack.

Government is sleep wlaking into another disaster while they are consumed with who can give the most Thatcher like performance to the coffin dodger members who are voting the next leader.

Octopus is usually one of the top ones for EV owners so I wonder if that means they’re customer base is a little different from other suppliers. Knowing the debt each supplier has could help spot the ones that are vulnerable.