So roughly (at 52p) it is about right.
Its close with 10 years
But not for 5.
Agree about specific circumstances.
-unit rate could go up or down over that time
-House roof suitability
-geography in the uk
Of course. The huge spanner in the world comes if the government cap prices at 2k.
That's really going to make payback a long time. Your over 10 in that case.
I feel no battery isn't great for most people. Seems essential.
Like I said no its not right, I have almost £5.5k of battery costs and I ignored most of the benefit.
The ROI assumes no charging from the grid where as in reality the predicted pattern for my generation would allow some charging in spring and summer and full charging in winter.
But the problem is the modelling is complicated as its scenarios with so many potential variables.
At 52p (ex VAT?) its nigh on 7 years, real numbers made it 7.13 and I ignored the payment for units exported, and ANY battery benefit other than capturing my excess generation.
FWIW at 29p I calculated both battery and solar on their own had a roughly 7 year payback, assuming Octopus Go for battery charging, and 5p export per unit for excess solar which will be high with no battery.
When you have both you actually lower the return rate (increase ROI) for each since you cap the effectiveness of battery in particular (if you assume the benefit to the solar primarily), but overall they still add benefit marginally from having both.
Its difficult to do well and quick back of fag packet maths won't cut it.
I had to limit my scenarios and I used a tool I use at work (for investment decisions as part of my job)
Again "I feel no battery isn't great for most people. Seems essential." your looking at a certain type of person I assume, people like you?
A small/mid simple solar system works great for many people at home during the day (WFH, retired, housewife etc) who can use the majority of the power, washing, dishwasher, watching TV etc. whilst they are generating. No need to store and offset the power usage, use it when its generating.
Whats logical VERY much depends on your situation as I said
For many I suspect only a battery is logical, but its a higher risk approach, it relies on being able to get on and stay on a tariff with cheap units available to charge it.
With the pricing coming most combined systems will be closer to 3-4 year payback assuming the pricing remains and your on a Eco & type tariff.
South cost installs would be possibly even lower, especially if pure south facing, Scottish systems maybe higher.