European Grand Prix 2011, Valencia Street Circuit - Race 8/19

[clv101]

While it's historically possible Lauder was very badly burned and DNF one race and didn't even take part in the next 2. Something like that isn't remotely likely these days.

As I said above, it is unlikely but not out of this world. See what happened to Massa in '09.

I think the odds you'll get on a Vettel win at the moment (~1/14) reflect the chance of him being involved in an accident that takes him out of the picture for a few races. It's very hard to see anyone else beating him in a straight fight, even if McLaren or Ferrari did manage to find a second a lap on the Red Bull for the second half of the season, Button/Hamilton/Webber would be taking points from each other and Vettel would still regularly be finishing with half decent points.

The season is Vettel's unless he's forced to sit out a few races due to injury or experiences a string of freak mechanicals or collisions.

 

[sunama]

Not sure its been lost before from this kind of dominant start. Button won 6 of the first 7 GP of 2009 and won the title. Vettel's won 6 out of the first 8 GP of 2011 and I doubt will lose it. Apparently Schumacher, Mansell and one or two others have won the title when they've made such a dominant start to a season.

When you lay it bare as you have, I honestly can't see how RBR/Vettel can lose this. Even if RBR were to struggle to get a single podium (unlikely) from now on, Vettel should still be able to win it.

The reliability has been supreme, so hoping for DNF's is wishful thinking.

Alonso, Hamilton and Webber are indeed fighting for second place, but I am bemused that the latter two, would both publicly admit defeat so early in the season.

 

[Slam62]

When you lay it bare as you have, I honestly can't see how RBR/Vettel can lose this. Even if RBR were to struggle to get a single podium (unlikely) from now on, Vettel should still be able to win it.

The reliability has been supreme, so hoping for DNF's is wishful thinking.

Alonso, Hamilton and Webber are indeed fighting for second place, but I am bemused that the latter two, would both publicly admit defeat so early in the season.

indeed, Monaco, Lewis was all feisty but blew it in qualifying, Canada he blew it at the first corner.

As I say, it all depends, Silverstone will be the key. If Vettel wins there it's all over.

TBH it is all over bar the shouting.

 

[NathanE]

The new "25 points for a win" system that was introduced last season is making the situation worse.

 

[Jono8]

I can't believe there were no retirements. In fact there generally havent been that many retirements at all this season has there?

I guess they're not driving on the bleeding edge anymore...

 

[sunama]

The cars do seem to be very reliable.
Generally, if a driver fails to finish it is due to a collision.

Some people are saying that they are not so impressed with Vettel, but for me, he has been the best driver so far this year, by far. He really is in top form right now. He is staying out of trouble and even when he drops to a minor place (after his pitstop) - he still isn't getting caught out with a silly mistake.

The last race: Vettel: pole position, fastest race lap, race win. It says it all really.

In the commentary, it was stated that he has only dropped something like 14 points this season. That is amazing.

Last year, most people said that if Alonso/Hamilton were in the same car as Vettel, Vettel would've been demolished. I really can't see how anybody could say the same this year.

...mark my words though, Vettel's form will drop...but by then, the damage would already have been done.

 

[utajoker]

The new "25 points for a win" system that was introduced last season is making the situation worse.

what would the points be on the old system?

it would still be just as big a gap to climb because who ever wants to catch vettel is going to have to win the same amount of races because vettel will still bring points in lower down.

 

[DBT85]

The new "25 points for a win" system that was introduced last season is making the situation worse.

No it isn't. On the old scoring system it would be
Old vs New
Vettel - 76 vs 186
Webber - 45 vs 109
Button - 44 vs 109
Hamilton - 40 vs 97
Alonso - 36 vs 87

If you take Vettels score as 100% the others drivers have the following percentage of his score (Ish. I gave up after 3 decimal places)

Old system vs new system
59.175% vs 58.533 = 0.642% difference
57.86% vs 58.533 = -0.673% difference
52.6% vs 52.089 = 0.511% difference
47.34% vs 46.719 = 0.621% difference

Nothing would be any different if we were using the old system. Vettel would still be 3 full wins ahead of his nearest rival.

 

[deuse]

The old 2003 system would be best now the cars don't break so much

• 1st: 10
• 2nd: 8
• 3rd: 6
• 4th: 5
• 5th: 4
• 6th: 3
• 7th: 2
• 8th: 1

or even better do the same as Nascar do with there system.

 

[JRS]

The new "25 points for a win" system that was introduced last season is making the situation worse.

The top five using 10-8-6-5-4-3-2-1 (the '03 to '09 system)

1) Vettel - 76
2) Webber - 45
3) Button - 44
4) Hamilton - 40
5) Alonso - 36

So currently the gap from first to second is a tick over 3 wins, under the previous points setup it's....a tick over 3 wins.



Using 10-6-4-3-2-1 (1991 to 2002), it comes out like this:

1) Vettel - 72
2) Button - 30
3) Webber - 29
4) Hamilton - 29
5) Alonso - 22

Making the gap more than four wins.

And pre-1991 when a win only got you 9 points instead of 10....

1) Vettel - 66
2) Button - 29
3) Webber - 29
4) Hamilton - 28
5) Alonso - 22

Still more than three wins required to overhaul him.

In summary NathanE - it's not the points system putting him out of reach, it's the fact that Red Bull have the best car out there. By far and away.

 

[Glaucus]

The old 2003 system would be best now the cars don't break so much

• 1st: 10
• 2nd: 8
• 3rd: 6
• 4th: 5
• 5th: 4
• 6th: 3
• 7th: 2
• 8th: 1

or even better do the same as Nascar do with there system.

We all complained then that there was not enough to encourage going for the win.
There is nothing wrong with the point scoring system this year, it's the best one we've had for ages.
What people need to realise is this is f1 it is very rare to get a close championship and as I have posted before championships are very clear cut from early on.

 

[dannyjo22]

The last race: Vettel: pole position, fastest race lap, race win. It says it all really.

In the commentary, it was stated that he has only dropped something like 14 points this season. That is amazing.

Last year, most people said that if Alonso/Hamilton were in the same car as Vettel, Vettel would've been demolished. I really can't see how anybody could say the same this year.

He is doing everything he has to and no more and he is doing that well. Wasn't this race the first track he actually recorded fastest lap?

Alonso and Hamilton will make more mistakes this year trying to win races because they have to get more from a poorer car.

Alonso has again impressed me this year, some of the perfomance he has dragged out that car has been stunning. Hamilton too and I've said is head and shoulders above Button. A pitstop ahead again despite not having a great car. Yeah Button will beat him at 4 races per year but generally he gets far more out of the car consistently. Button won't win another title while hamilton is still there regardless of who they call no1 and no2.

Buttons best hope is Hamilton runs to red bull and leaves him as no1, then hope they get another top drawer car.

I still think Hamilton or Alonso would smash Vettel in the same car, I don't think where the roles reversed that Vettel would be clinging onto alonso if alonso was in the RB and Vettel in the Ferrari.

I hope Hamilton goes to Red Bull, a change of scenary might do him the world of good to get out of the Mclaren PR machine.

Vettel is doing a good job managing everything from the front and it's not his fault he has no challengers. Hopefully soon Mclaren and Ferrari might build a good car out of the box and give us a genuine challenge for Newey and his team.

 

[JRS]

What people need to realise is this is f1 it is very rare to get a close championship

In 61 years, the title has been decided by five or fewer points on only 23 occasions IIRC. It's actually been decided by a single point just 8 times, and once by even less than that (Lauda beat Prost by half a point in '84).

 

[Glaucus]

Yep the stats in wiki are good


Most wins in a season

Driver	Season	Entries	Wins	Percentage
1	 Michael Schumacher	2004	18	13	72%
2	 Michael Schumacher	2002	17	11	65%
3	 Nigel Mansell	1992	16	9	56%
 Michael Schumacher	1995	17	9	53%
 Michael Schumacher	2000	17	9	53%
 Michael Schumacher	2001	17	9	53%
7	 Ayrton Senna	1988	16	8	50%
 Michael Schumacher	1994	16	8	50%
 Damon Hill	1996	16	8	50%
 Mika Häkkinen	1998	16	8	50%

Highest percentage of wins in a season

Driver	Season	Races	Wins	Percentage
1	 Alberto Ascari	1952	8	6	75%
2	 Michael Schumacher	2004	18	13	72%
3	 Jim Clark	1963	10	7	70%
4	 Juan Manuel Fangio	1954	9	6	67%
5	 Michael Schumacher	2002	17	11	65%
6	 Jim Clark	1965	10	6	60%
7	 Juan Manuel Fangio	1955	7	4	57%
8	 Nigel Mansell	1992	16	9	56%
9	 Alberto Ascari	1953	9	5	56%
10	 Jackie Stewart	1969	11	6	54%
 Jackie Stewart	1971	11	6	54%

 

[dannyjo22]

We all complained then that there was not enough to encourage going for the win.
There is nothing wrong with the point scoring system this year, it's the best one we've had for ages.
What people need to realise is this is f1 it is very rare to get a close championship and as I have posted before championships are very clear cut from early on.

Yep I want winners rewarded even if it means the title is over by hungary. I want someone to win 8 races and take the title against someone who wins 2 and has better reliability.

I agree titles are usually easy to see after even one race. Whe you look at how often the winner of the first race goes on to take the title.

 

[dannyjo22]

In 61 years, the title has been decided by five or fewer points on only 23 occasions IIRC. It's actually been decided by a single point just 8 times, and once by even less than that (Lauda beat Prost by half a point in '84).

I vote name change to 'statto'. I wish my memory stood up so well now I am also old

 

[clv101]

When you lay it bare as you have, I honestly can't see how RBR/Vettel can lose this.

As has been said above, the way Vettel loses this championship is by missing a few races - as happened with Lauder in '76 and Schumacher in '99. Twice in the last 35 has the 'sure thing' lost out after a crash. Massa in '09 could have been similar but he wasn't in the title hunt and the time.

The odds you get on Vettel winning the championship reflect the chance of him having an accident and missing several races.

 

[DBT85]

many numbers

Bah, if i'd known you were going to do several years worth of scoring systems I wouldn't have bothered.

 

[JRS]

I agree titles are usually easy to see after even one race. Whe you look at how often the winner of the first race goes on to take the title.

About half the time, over the course of the World Championship era. It only happened once in the '70s, oddly.

I vote name change to 'statto'. I wish my memory stood up so well now I am also old

A lot of it is memory, some of it is cheat-sheet on my home computer, backed up with the odd trip to the internet to check I'm not mis-remembering something!

Bah, if i'd known you were going to do several years worth of scoring systems I wouldn't have bothered.

Sorry mate!

 

[Kevin Clark]

Overtaking stats if anyone wanted them

P. Lap. Driver on Driver Position
1. 2 Pastor Maldonado Vitantonio Liuzzi 21
2. 3 Jaime Alguersuari Sergio Perez 16
3. 3 Heikki Kovalainen Timo Glock 18
4. 4 Jaime Alguersuari Vitaly Petrov 15
5. 4 Jarno Trulli Timo Glock 19
6. 4 Pastor Maldonado Timo Glock 20
7. 6 Jenson Button Nico Rosberg 6
8. 12 Nick Heidfeld Heikki Kovalainen 15
9. 12 Pastor Maldonado Narain Karthikeyan 23
10. 13 Nick Heidfeld Adrian Sutil 14
11. 13 Adrian Sutil Nick Heidfeld 14
12. 13 Rubens Barrichello Jarno Trulli 17
13. 13 Rubens Barrichello Heikki Kovalainen 16
14. 14 Lewis Hamilton Michael Schumacher 6
15. 14 Pastor Maldonado Jerome d'Ambrosio 22
16. 14 Pastor Maldonado Vitantonio Liuzzi 21
17. 15 Nico Rosberg Jaime Alguersuari 8
18. 16 Sebastien Buemi Jarno Trulli 14
19. 16 Pastor Maldonado Timo Glock 18
20. 16 Michael Schumacher Jerome d'Ambrosio 21
21. 17 Adrian Sutil Sergio Perez 9
22. 17 Nick Heidfeld Sergio Perez 10
23. 17 Rubens Barrichello Sergio Perez 11
24. 17 Kamui Kobayashi Jarno Trulli 15
25. 18 Michael Schumacher Heikki Kovalainen 19
26. 19 Paul di Resta Sergio Perez 12
27. 20 Jerome d'Ambrosio Vitantonio Liuzzi 22
28. 21 Fernando Alonso Mark Webber 2
29. 21 Sebastien Buemi Sergio Perez 12
30. 22 Jaime Alguersuari Sergio Perez 13
31. 23 Vitaly Petrov Kamui Kobayashi 15
32. 25 Vitaly Petrov Sergio Perez 14
33. 25 Kamui Kobayashi Sergio Perez 15
34. 25 Michael Schumacher Pastor Maldonado 17
35. 29 Sebastien Buemi Kamui Kobayashi 13
36. 31 Mark Webber Felipe Massa 2
37. 39 Nico Rosberg Jaime Alguersuari 7
38. 45 Kamui Kobayashi Paul di Resta 14
39. 45 Heikki Kovalainen Jarno Trulli 19
40. 46 Paul di Resta Kamui Kobayashi 14
41. 55 Vitaly Petrov Kamui Kobayashi 15



P. Driver Overtaking
1. Pastor Maldonado 5
2. Jaime Alguersuari 3
3. Nick Heidfeld 3
4. Rubens Barrichello 3
5. Sebastien Buemi 3
6. Vitaly Petrov 3
7. Kamui Kobayashi 3
8. Michael Schumacher 3
9. Nico Rosberg 2
10. Adrian Sutil 2
11. Paul di Resta 2
12. Heikki Kovalainen 2
13. Fernando Alonso 1
14. Mark Webber 1
15. Lewis Hamilton 1
16. Jenson Button 1
17. Jarno Trulli 1
18. Jerome d'Ambrosio 1