If the Premier League season cannot be completed, then even a sophisticated mathematical model, which takes into account the strength of the opponents left to be played and the number of home and away games, shows that the present standings of the table are the fairest reflection of the season.
Inspired by the Elo calculation method, which was introduced by the physicist Arpad Elo in 1960 to rank chess players and is now used by Fifa to rank men’s and women’s national teams, the prediction is based on the average number of points that the teams would have earned in the remaining matches, factoring in the strength of remaining opponents and home advantage.
There are no changes in the positions according to my model. One would expect Sheffield United to finish ahead of Wolves because they have one more game to play (both teams have 43 points), but the model predicts that Chris Wilder’s team will finish in seventh, with Wolves sixth, because United face stronger opponents and play six out of ten games away.
At the bottom of the table, West Ham are ahead of Watford and Bournemouth thanks to a better goal difference. The model predicts that teams will stay in the same order, with West Ham collecting one more point than Watford and two more than Bournemouth, because of an easier schedule.
Importantly, unlike Elo ratings, our method only takes results from the 2019-2020 Premier League season into account. The final standings are not influenced by older performances or matches played in other competitions.It is a viable solution to determine who qualifies for Europe and who gets relegated if the season cannot be completed. The Premier League should consider including something similar in any future regulations.