Hello, in wake of the strange and unsatisfying ending for Season 2, I've decided to collect what we know about the episode cutback decision.
1. It wasn't the showrunners' choice
[Executive Producer Sara] Hess declines to comment on the reduced season 2 order from 10 episodes to eight, but notes, "It wasn't really our choice."
2. The scripts were done by January 2023
Writing for season 2 had reportedly started by May 2022. Hess told Entertainment Weekly that the scripts were done by January 2023.
3. The switch to 8 episodes was first reported by Deadline in March 2023
The upcoming second season of HBO‘s House of the Dragon will consist of eight episodes... I hear the initial plan was for another 10-episode arc, which eventually changed, leading to some script rewrites.
It is not clear exactly when the cutback was finalized (this is just when news of it became public). Note that this places the cutback before the writers' strike, which began in May 2023. The strike was, however, widely anticipated then, and the prospect of it may have disincentivized the showrunners from doing a more major overhaul of what had already been written, since that could mean a production shutdown for the duration of the strike.
4. Deadline's sources pointed to corporate leadership's focus on cost-cutting (while an HBO spokesperson claimed, implausibly, that it was story driven)
Given the leadership change at HBO’s parent company, some pointed at Warner Bros. Discovery leadership’s focus on cost-cutting. An HBO spokesperson, who confirmed to Deadline that Season 2 will contain 8 episodes, stressed that the episode count trim was story-driven.
5. Deadline reported that "a major battle" was moved to Season 3
a portion of the plot originally intended for Season 2, including a major battle, moving to Season 3
EDIT: 6. Condal confirmed this battle is ************** and he pushed it back partly due to "resources"
In new comments after the finale, Condal offered a more politic take than Hess. He says the change was partly due to an effort to "rebalance" the remaining events across future seasons, but he also implies they wouldn't have had the budget to do ************* the way they wanted if it stayed in S2.
When you’re as a showrunner, you’re always in the position of having to balance storytelling and the resources that you have available to tell that story. One of the things that came into play in season two is: What is the final destination of the series and where are we going? It was a combination of factors that led us to rebalance the season knowing now where we’re going. We wanted to rebalance the story in such a way that we had three great seasons of television [after season one] to round out and tell this story. When you’re trying to mount the show, which requires a tremendous amount of resources, construction, armor, costumes, visual effects … we are trying to give ************* — which is arguably the second most anticipated action event of Fire & Blood — trying to give it the time and the space that it deserves.... We just wanted to have the time and the space to do that at a level that is going to excite and satisfy the fans in the way it’s deserved.
What it means
I think this is pretty solid evidence that the HOTD team wrote 10 episodes, were told relatively late in the process by Warner Discovery to reduce it to 8, and essentially just made the first 8 episodes in their plan with some relatively minor tweaks.
In my view, this was a mistake and they should have done the more major revisions necessary to end the 8 episode season with *********************. But perhaps in the long term, when it's all done, the decision will hold up, when they get the original full story they ended to tell (even though the season breakdown will be strange).