Geforce GTX1180/2080 Speculation thread

[Cooper]

BTW,this further reinforces my view the new cards will have ray tracing support as a big feature:

https://hexus.net/tech/news/graphics/120656-nvidia-adds-ray-tracing-tech-temporal-anti-aliasing-taa/

...Nvidia will make a huge deal of this in their marketing spiel, no doubt. Of course what they won't say is that the first generation of such capable cards will only be powerful enough for ray tracing effects to be used very,very sparingly in game, maybe on one or two small surfaces, otherwise you'll be looking at crashing framerates all round.

 

[bJN]

...Nvidia will make a huge deal of this in their marketing spiel, no doubt. Of course what they won't say is that the first generation of such capable cards will only be powerful enough for ray tracing effects to be used very,very sparingly in game, maybe on one or two small surfaces, otherwise you'll be looking at crashing framerates all round.

As is always the case when using new hardware to advertise new technology!

 

[CAT-THE-FIFTH]

Also just saw this on Hexus:

https://m.hexus.net/tech/news/graphics/120674-ai-ml-applications-eat-gddr6-supply-says-report/

RAM companies now whining they can't make enough GDDR6. FFS.

From the "Leak" on videocardz twitter, the next gpu lineup is likely to have 6 SM's per GPC. Giving the following specs.

Gx102 = 4,608 - 6GPC ~ Titan V (but likely higher due to better scaling/drivers)
Gx104 = 3,072 - 4GPC ~ stock 1080Ti perf
Gx106 = 1,536 - 2GPC
Gx107 = 768 - 1 GPC

Hopefully the GTX1160/GTX2060 gets a good jump up in performance so it uplifts the midrange. OTH,AMD is screwed.

...Nvidia will make a huge deal of this in their marketing spiel, no doubt. Of course what they won't say is that the first generation of such capable cards will only be powerful enough for ray tracing effects to be used very,very sparingly in game, maybe on one or two small surfaces, otherwise you'll be looking at crashing framerates all round.

Maybe but at least it's a start I suppose.

 

[scubes]

Every time they bring out some new graphic effect it takes 2 generations to get decent frame rates ...

 

[Kaapstad]

These threads always go off topic,primarily since there hasn't been a very recent rumour.

But as I linked a few pages back TAA now has a version which uses ray tracing:

https://hexus.net/tech/news/graphics/120656-nvidia-adds-ray-tracing-tech-temporal-anti-aliasing-taa/

That is a strong hint Nvidia is releasing more cards with ray tracing support.

At least that is something consoles cannot do!

If NVidia can get ray tracing to run on a Titan V which has been available for the last 8 months there is every chance it will run on the next round of gaming cards.

 

[Gibbo]

Also just saw this on Hexus:

https://m.hexus.net/tech/news/graphics/120674-ai-ml-applications-eat-gddr6-supply-says-report/

RAM companies now whining they can't make enough GDDR6. FFS.



Hopefully the GTX1160/GTX2060 gets a good jump up in performance so it uplifts the midrange. OTH,AMD is screwed.


Maybe but at least it's a start I suppose.

GDDR6 is rather expensive, talking upto 20% more expensive than equivalent GDDR5, of course for your extra money you get more bandwidth which is why the so many other industries are all over it and putting in big orders and thus already potentially creating a shortage, not good for pricing in the future potentially:

 

[Kaapstad]

GDDR6 is rather expensive, talking upto 20% more expensive than equivalent GDDR5, of course for your extra money you get more bandwidth which is why the so many other industries are all over it and putting in big orders and thus already potentially creating a shortage, not good for pricing in the future potentially:

How much extra would an existing GTX 1080 cost if it used 8gb of GDDR6?

 

[CAT-THE-FIFTH]

If NVidia can get ray tracing to run on a Titan V which has been available for the last 8 months there is every chance it will run on the next round of gaming cards.

It will be interesting to see where things go with the tech.

GDDR6 is rather expensive, talking upto 20% more expensive than equivalent GDDR5, of course for your extra money you get more bandwidth which is why the so many other industries are all over it and putting in big orders and thus already potentially creating a shortage, not good for pricing in the future potentially:

Then they will say,DDR4 prices can't go down that much due to GDDR6. This is going to be like after the floods and HDD pricing per TB hardly went down for yonks.

 

[Gibbo]

It will be interesting to see where things go with the tech.



Then they will say,DDR4 prices can't go down that much due to GDDR6. This is going to be like after the floods and HDD pricing per TB hardly went down for yonks.

DDR4 pricing has dropped considerably over the last three months on the regular stuff, on the more expensive Samsung B die stuff holds it prices, simply because its the best and if you want the best then you pay, otherwise you get the regular cheaper stuff.

 

[CAT-THE-FIFTH]

DDR4 pricing has dropped considerably over the last three months on the regular stuff, on the more expensive Samsung B die stuff holds it prices, simply because its the best and if you want the best then you pay, otherwise you get the regular cheaper stuff.

Shame it hasn't been reflected at most retailers in the UK still. The cheapest RAM kits with 16GB 2133MHZ/2400MHZ DDR4 costs at least £135 to £140. The 2400MHZ 16GB C14 set I got last year for £56,still costs £147!! It costs nearly the same as some higher speed kits! WTF??

 

[Gibbo]

How much extra would an existing GTX 1080 cost if it used 8gb of GDDR6?

1080 uses GDDR5X remember and as I am not a graphics card manufacturer I don't have exact costings but in short you have GDDR5, GDDR5X and GDDR6 now, plus in the future there shall be even faster GDDR6X. I believe both Micron and SK Hynix have GDDR6 stocks and are selling to various manufacturers in different types of industry.

Also remember on a GPU, if its price is $500, that price includes cost of GPU, PCB and RAM. What proportion is which is unknown as sometimes the GPU manufacturer will sell a GPU + RAM bundle to the board partner, other times board partner will just buy GPU from GPU manufacturer and source their own RAM + PCB to maybe save cost or even make faster version etc.

So to actually say the price difference between GDDR5X and GDDR6 on a 1080 is quite hard as I do not have the pricing in front of me or what percentage of cost the RAM is to the total solution, but its fair to say on cards with 8G and above the memory is around 50% of total cost, so if GDDR6 was 20% more than GDDR5X you can get an idea for the additional cost it creates.

Of course were just assuming if a 1080 was to use GDDR6, but it uses GDDR5X.

 

[Gibbo]

Shame it hasn't been reflected at most retailers in the UK still. The cheapest RAM kits with 16GB 2133MHZ/2400MHZ DDR4 costs at least £135 to £140. The 2400MHZ 16GB C14 set I got last year for £56,still costs £147!! It costs nearly the same as some higher speed kits! WTF??

What was the pound against USD when you got those kits.

Also 16G kits were all closer to £200 a few months back even the slow ones.

 

[orbitalwalsh]

What was the pound against USD when you got those kits.

Also 16G kits were all closer to £200 a few months back even the slow ones.

think it also reflects on when you guys or other resellers bought ram kits, as im guessing you do a very big bulk buy and not small batches .

could potentially lose out big if you dropped price without getting rebate on it

 

[Gibbo]

think it also reflects on when you guys or other resellers bought ram kits, as im guessing you do a very big bulk buy and not small batches .

could potentially lose out big if you dropped price without getting rebate on it

I buy memory every Tuesday, our stock is fresh and our price is fair, that is why we've been as low as £70 for 8G 3000 kits and £140 for 16G 3000 kits, whereas most competitors are still in the £170-£200 region and as of now our pricing is set to around £80 and £155 for such speeds as when we drop to the lower price were at single digit margin which we only do for promotions.

But the prices have fallen quite a bit in past several weeks and seems to have settled now, hopefully it will become stable or even drop some more.

But to give you an idea if I pay $120 for a 16G kit with a GBP of 1.33 against USD, then UK conversion is £90 cost, if the pound was say 1.55 where it was when memory was cheap, then my cost would be £77, so £13 cost different simply due to exchange rate, this is of course an issue the memory manufacturer cannot be held accountable for, it is not their fault the GBP is very weak.

What I can tell you is 2400MHz 16G kits peaked around $165 cost, they are now around $115 which is quite a reduction, but at there cheapest back in May 2016 I paid around $50 which only lasted for about a month, was a period where memory manufacturers over produced, creating a massive over supply and thus sold at losses. Now there is less memory player due to some IC's going bust, not only do they keep supply tighter to prevent over-supply issues, but there is also less competition. What create further issues though Desktop PC is generally in decline other markets that require DRAM, GDDR, NAND are exploding which creates shortages and thus price increases. Since May 2016 the price increased from there on and the pricing only started to very slowly come back down since February this year, but it is small and often offset by the pound been so weak.

Would be nice if the pound gained strength back to around 1.50 levels, it would certainly have a positive impact on most component prices especially. We will now get back to $50 for 16G kits, simply won't ever happen as the remaining memory manufacturers will never leave themselves in such a position of overstock, it is actually far better to run your business tight, smaller volumes, higher margins for safety and future of the company. Trying to do too much, with too little margin, all it takes is a slight issue and you could simply go bankrupt and then bust, which has happened in the past.

But been realistic I would hope to see 16G kits slip to sub $100 trade cost by end of the year which would mean if pound remains the same we may see some 16G kits closer to the around £100 delivered. 8G kits won't get much cheaper though, as there is now more volume on 8G modules than there is 4G modules.

 

[CAT-THE-FIFTH]

What was the pound against USD when you got those kits.

Also 16G kits were all closer to £200 a few months back even the slow ones.

I just looked at the receipt,it was at the end of 2016 and after the referendum,when the pound was $1.25,now its stronger so that incorporates the reduction in the exchange rates. It was on offer,and the same kit was £75 to £80 normally.

It hit a peak of £181 in December last year,with a stronger pound. So basically still nearly twice what it was towards the end of 2016 and the pound is stronger now.

Not only is China investigating them,there is litigation happening in the US,and that is hinting at some possible naughtiness.

 

[TNA]

PUBG losing nearly a million players since January and Fortnite going stratospheric are bigger contributors I think. Lack of curation always seemed like on odd argument to me. Are people really struggling to find something decent to play? Steam still has 2 million more users than last year so I don't think they need to worry just yet.

Lol. Seems to me like he has tunnel vision. He sees what he wants to see

 

[CAT-THE-FIFTH]

This thread has more of the info behind the Chinese investigation and class action lawsuit in the US against the DRAM makers:

https://forums.overclockers.co.uk/t...ng-potentially-heavy-fines-in-china.18823502/

The price increase last year was the biggest since 1978,and Chinese phone companies started complaining to the regulator who asked them to stop increasing prices so much since it was really unusually high. They ignored them and China is now investigating them. China is the world's biggest purchaser of DRAM at $90 billion a year,so think how much it costs them,and no doubt many companies had to absorb the costs.

Now it appears,they have basically pushed China to accelerate its own plans for a making memory and in a few years they will have a massive state backed competitor,which is what they probably don't want. Look at how China has dumped steel,and the problems it has caused. An epic own goal.

This year a class action lawsuit has been made against the DRAM makers in the US regarding certain statements about limiting production on purpose and not trying to challenge each other's marketshare.

Remember,a number of them got caught last time doing the same thing. One of them not only did it for DRAM,but was caught price fixing LCDs and CRTs(until the 2000s) and the latter for a decade.

Basically its their fault for not setting a reasonable median/average price,and they have made price increase obvious by such a massive jump. They got have easily increased prices less,but kept average prices higher,but like last time they pushed too far and got noticed,and have made it viable for more competitors to enter the market.

 

[WantoN]

It's more the case more and more games are ditching Steam for dedicated launchers and their own networks so less people need to use Steam now.

For example Fallout 76 is not available on pre-order on Steam and people think Bethesda will use its current launcher instead.

Yes I hadn’t considered this. I downright refused to use any other launchers for a long time but eventually I gave in. I use Origin, Ubi, Twitch, GoG, and others. Not windows store though.

I think this and cd keys are the primary culprits.

 

[WantoN]

This thread has more of the info behind the Chinese investigation and class action lawsuit in the US against the DRAM makers:

https://forums.overclockers.co.uk/t...ng-potentially-heavy-fines-in-china.18823502/

I genuinely believe that companies like this factor in fines and consequences before making these decisions. I cannot imagine the profits they’ve been making, and what reinvestment has also earned them.

Lawsuits and investigations can take years to actually bear fruit, and by that time the money earned will most likely make the fines and law suit costs seem laughable.

Yes, they may drop prices eventually, but they’ve been driven so high that they’ll never reach a price that would have been inline with inflation and exchange rates had they not driven costs up so aggressively. We’ll likely never see an appreciable drop unless something drastic happens.

I also think we’ll see very expensive cards, very expensive. Dram costs, Ray tracing and a lack of competition will make our wallets wince. That said, I’ll still buy a ti and a new monitor as long as it costs me less than £800 for the card. If not they can suck it.

 

[CAT-THE-FIFTH]

Yes I hadn’t considered this. I downright refused to use any other launchers for a long time but eventually I gave in. I use Origin, Ubi, Twitch, GoG, and others. Not windows store though.

I think this and cd keys are the primary culprits.

You also need to consider the key resellers don't replace Steam though,as many of their games need Steam to play the said games,and this would not explain any drops in people using Steam,just any potential revenues.

I genuinely believe that companies like this factor in fines and consequences before making these decisions. I cannot imagine the profits they’ve been making, and what reinvestment has also earned them.

Lawsuits and investigations can take years to actually bear fruit, and by that time the money earned will most likely make the fines and law suit costs seem laughable.

Yes, they may drop prices eventually, but they’ve been driven so high that they’ll never reach a price that would have been inline with inflation and exchange rates had they not driven costs up so aggressively. We’ll likely never see an appreciable drop unless something drastic happens.

I also think we’ll see very expensive cards, very expensive. Dram costs, Ray tracing and a lack of competition will make our wallets wince. That said, I’ll still buy a ti and a new monitor as long as it costs me less than £800 for the card. If not they can suck it.

Whats interesting is both these events have happened pretty quickly,unlike in the past when it took years for regulators to start acting. The issue here is probably overconfidence - they took on Chinese companies,which are essentially state backed,and by extension the Chinese government who seem to be acting much more quickly. Even if they don't charge them,the damage is done - looking at the nationalistic statements from China in the last few years,they will accelerate their own alternatives so they can rely less on foreign suppliers,who can increase prices 50% and above whenever they feel like hence cutting the DRAM suppliers own markets - it reminds me what happened decades ago when the Japanese car and tech industries were ignored too.