Poll: General election voting round 5 (final one)

[D.P.]

What other parties? Even with the DUP and UKIP supporting them the "anti-Tory bloc" of Labour, SNP, SDLP, PC and Greens would have more MPs. And that's even if the lib dems agree to another coalition, when there's considerable pressure within the party to go with Labour instead, and when there's potentially deal breaking issues around things like the EU referendum.

Yeah, the Cons best chance is a LD coalition and despite what Clegg says, most LD MP's absolutely do not want to get in bed with the Tories again. I Clegg does try to foam a coalition I can imagine an internal revolt, or many LD MP's abstaining from voting which would result in a Labour government.
conversely, only a small chance the SNP wont vote in confidence for Labour. The Lib dems will at 25-28 seats, the SNP at 49-54 giving the anti-tory bloc a bigger share. furthermore the lib dems would never work with the DUP or UKIP, while the SNP wont mind working with the Greens, PC, SDLP etc. Finally, there is a much bigger chance that the Lib Dems would support labour, than the SNP will support the Tories

 

[MrMoonX]

Yeah, the Cons best chance is a LD coalition and despite what Clegg says, most LD MP's absolutely do not want to get in bed with the Tories again. I Clegg does try to foam a coalition I can imagine an internal revolt, or many LD MP's abstaining from voting which would result in a Labour government.
conversely, only a small chance the SNP wont vote in confidence for Labour. The Lib dems will at 25-28 seats, the SNP at 49-54 giving the anti-tory bloc a bigger share. furthermore the lib dems would never work with the DUP or UKIP, while the SNP wont mind working with the Greens, PC, SDLP etc. Finally, there is a much bigger chance that the Lib Dems would support labour, than the SNP will support the Tories

Also Clegg has destroyed his party by getting into bed with the Tories, senior LDs are against a Tory coalition again anyway. Plus Clegg might not even have a seat on Thursday

 

[D.P.]

Not if those parties have reached the 322 threshold which is likely but not certain.

I think you mean highly uncertain but possible?
As May2015.com keeps pointing out, it is a very tight path for Cameron to win

Either a lot of things needs to go very well and the Tories get very lucky in many marginals, or the polling data has to be very wrong.

http://may2015.com/featured/electio...redictions-now-suggest-david-cameron-can-win/


If people vote on May 7th like anything close to the polls Milliband will be Prime minister, which is why he has favorite odds

 

[D.P.]

Also Cleg has destroyed his party by getting into bed with the Tories, senior LDs are against a Tory coalition again anyway. Plus Clegg might not even have a seat on Thursday

Most Lib Dem MPs wont stand for a a Tory coalition.

I can imagine even if Nick Clegg tries to make a Conservative coalition some of his party will resign and in a vote of confidence many would abstain.

If instead they formed a coalition with Labour his MP's would be much happier and there would be an insurmountable wall blocking the Tories, around 360 seats (SNP and the other bot in the coalition but voting for labour)

 

[Raumarik]

Libs Dem MPs will jump at the chance to get back into coalition, Clegg included, but the way their party works they'd have to go against a conference vote as it's unlikely the LD conference held after talks have taken place would support a coalition.

That's if the LD don't do worse than expected, which might well happen.

 

[D.P.]

Libs Dem MPs will jump at the chance to get back into coalition, Clegg included, but the way their party works they'd have to go against a conference vote as it's unlikely the LD conference held after talks have taken place would support a coalition.

That's if the LD don't do worse than expected, which might well happen.

Yes LD MPs will jump at the chance to go into coalition, but many them wont do it with the Tories. it is actually only Clegg that is particularly open to that idea.

I''m not saying it wont happen, it was somewhat shocking that they did that in 2010, but that turned out to be disastrous for the Lib Dems, look what happened to their voter base now. The Lib Dems can try a coalition with the Tories, which might be voted against at the Queen's speech (due to a larger anti-tory bloc existing), or they could form a coalition with Labour and almost certainly get into power.

People make the assumption that the Cons and Lib Dems would form another coalition, i just don't think it is that obvious when.

 

[spudbynight]

No, having the most seats is meaningless unless you have a majority.

The only single deciding factor on who will become PM is who will pass the Queen's speech.

But Cameron can stay in power, even if he doesn't have enough votes to get the Queen's Speech passed. The opposition have to actually vote against the incumbent.

There is the possibility of neither Labour or the Conservatives being able to form a majority coalition with the SNP abstaining.

Most Lib Dem MPs wont stand for a a Tory coalition.

Most Lib Dems will have lost their seats. Let's see what the remainder think.

 

[spudbynight]

More information about the sex segregation at the Labour rally.

 

[do_ron_ron]

But Cameron can stay in power, even if he doesn't have enough votes to get the Queen's Speech passed. The opposition have to actually vote against the incumbent.

There is the possibility of neither Labour or the Conservatives being able to form a majority coalition with the SNP abstaining.

Very highly unlikely given What Sturgeon has been saying, especially as she would get blamed if the Tories stayed in power due to their abstention. That would be political suicide with the Scottish Govt. elections in a years time.

 

[spudbynight]

Very highly unlikely given What Sturgeon has been saying, especially as she would get blamed if the Tories stayed in power due to their abstention. That would be political suicide with the Scottish Govt. elections in a years time.

I think entering into any agreement with the SNP would be electoral suicide for Labour. I think we might end up with a vote going though based on who blinks first.

 

[PermaBanned]

I think entering into any agreement with the SNP would be electoral suicide for Labour. I think we might end up with a vote going though based on who blinks first.

The whole point of this discussion was to demonstrate that Labour don't have to make an agreement with the SNP to end up in government.

 

[delta0]

What other parties? Even with the DUP and UKIP supporting them the "anti-Tory bloc" of Labour, SNP, SDLP, PC and Greens would have more MPs. And that's even if the lib dems agree to another coalition, when there's considerable pressure within the party to go with Labour instead, and when there's potentially deal breaking issues around things like the EU referendum.

At the moment that is borderline. The tolerances on the polls put it either way. It is likely there will be enough in that group to pass the magic 322 seats which means it doesn't matter how many seats the other group has.

 

[delta0]

Most Lib Dem MPs wont stand for a a Tory coalition.

I can imagine even if Nick Clegg tries to make a Conservative coalition some of his party will resign and in a vote of confidence many would abstain.

If instead they formed a coalition with Labour his MP's would be much happier and there would be an insurmountable wall blocking the Tories, around 360 seats (SNP and the other bot in the coalition but voting for labour)

They will go with the party choice. They may not want to but when it comes to it they will. The number 1 priority of all the major parties will be to form a stable government. They will not be out there to do the other over after the result.

 

[spudbynight]

The whole point of this discussion was to demonstrate that Labour don't have to make an agreement with the SNP to end up in government.

I think based on the likely numbers they will find it much harder than the Conservatives. The Conservatives will have more seats than Labour and will be the largest party. The LibDems have said they will work with the largest party.

Assuming nobody works with the SNP, I can't see how anyone other than Cameron will be PM.

 

[ic1male]

Who has the best coverage on the night? BBC I predict to be a bit boring, ITV or Sky may be the ones to watch.

 

[PermaBanned]

I think based on the likely numbers they will find it much harder than the Conservatives. The Conservatives will have more seats than Labour and will be the largest party. The LibDems have said they will work with the largest party.

Assuming nobody works with the SNP, I can't see how anyone other than Cameron will be PM.

The polls are pretty neck and neck, i don't see it being more than 10 seats between the Conservatives and Labour. Either way, having lost seats since 2010 and lacking support from any party with a considerable number of seats, the Conservaitves will find it pretty much impossible to pass a Queen's speech. The SNP are likely to vote for a Labour Queen's speech even without any formal deals, because not to do so would be to betray their voters and support a tory government.

 

[muon]

More information about the sex segregation at the Labour rally.

If Mariam feels that it would improve participation for women in such a community, you think the intention is to perpetuate segregation? I also don't think they would refuse entry to men if someone insisted.

The rest of it isn't men only.

 

[scorza]

Who has the best coverage on the night? BBC I predict to be a bit boring, ITV or Sky may be the ones to watch.

I'll probably be watching Channel 4's Alternative Election night, with switches to the BBC during the ad breaks.

 

[RDM]

Ed has basically convinced him of the errors of his ways, he should be applauded for that.

Do you even believe that?

 

[D.P.]

I think entering into any agreement with the SNP would be electoral suicide for Labour. I think we might end up with a vote going though based on who blinks first.

You are ignoring the point that no agreement is necessary at all.

If the SNP don't want the Tories then they will vote yes to Labour, it is that simple