Poll: General election voting round 5 (final one)

[TheBiznes]

Who has the best coverage on the night? BBC I predict to be a bit boring, ITV or Sky may be the ones to watch.

If you want a laugh Ballot Monkeys on Channel 4 at 10pm. I am sure much will be made of the Millstone

But for serious viewing I would watch Daily Politics on Parliament at 19:30 to 20:30, and perhaps the local debates may be interesting to you.

Sorry just realized you meant the night itself not tonight lol

 

[D.P.]

I think based on the likely numbers they will find it much harder than the Conservatives. The Conservatives will have more seats than Labour and will be the largest party. The LibDems have said they will work with the largest party.

Assuming nobody works with the SNP, I can't see how anyone other than Cameron will be PM.

I can't see how anyone other than Cameron will be PM

That is your failing and has no bearing on reality

The SNP doesn't have to work with Labour, they just have to hate the Tories.

 

[Mercenary Keyboard Warrior]

I think based on the likely numbers they will find it much harder than the Conservatives. The Conservatives will have more seats than Labour and will be the largest party. The LibDems have said they will work with the largest party.

Assuming nobody works with the SNP, I can't see how anyone other than Cameron will be PM.

Assuming the data is right, I cant see Cameron attempting to form a new government unless the others cant get their act together and formally announce something.
I see it as :
Tory + lib dem = short of a majority. As incumbent PM Cameron needs to go to the queen and ask her to invite someone to form a government. Unless Labour formally agree with the SNP I can't see why he would go to the queen and suggest she invites millband to form the next government.
So I suspect Cameron at that point would put forwards a queens speech, it would probably fail, I say probably because you never know what back room deals can happen. But assuming it fails the queen, or in reality a civil servant, will suggest the next person most likely to form a government. Obviously this would be miliband, who would probably manage a queens speech based on the anti-tory block.

Whats most worrying for the UK is Sturgeons insistence that SNP will not support ANY austerity the labour government wanted to apply. So take the first labour budget, it would need SNP or Tory support, ie backroom deals.
If they do go for austerity it would need to be strong enough to secure Tory support, if they change from their manifesto and decide to reject balancing the current defecit (call this austerity lite for want of something better) then they would secure the SNP support required.
Labour (or the Tories if they unlikely went into minority government) would probably end up at the end of the next parliament getting the same reception as the Lib dems do now even though they would hold quite a few seats. A minority Labour government will be a severely hamstrung one compared to their election manifesto and hence they will only be deemed to have broken most of their targets/commitments.

As far as they 2010 election was deemed a poison chalice, the 2015 looks more like a poison chalice with a nice side serving of ebola.

 

[scorza]

http://www.theguardian.com/politics...tical-votes-to-save-nick-clegg-in-hallam-poll

This story about Tory tactical voting just popped up as an alert on my phone.

Nick Clegg is on course to be saved from defeat in his Sheffield Hallam constituency by a tide of tactical Tory votes, according to a special Guardian/ICM poll conducted in the deputy prime minister’s constituency.

The poll puts Clegg on 42%, seven points clear of his young Labour rival, Oliver Coppard, who is on 35%. Ian Walker, the candidate for the Conservatives , is on 12%.

But Clegg achieves his seven-point lead only because almost half the people (48%) who say their nationwide preference is for the Conservatives are planning to support the Lib Dem.

 

[Mr Jack]

Whats most worrying for the UK is Sturgeons insistence that SNP will not support ANY austerity the labour government wanted to apply. So take the first labour budget, it would need SNP or Tory support, ie backroom deals.

My guess is that they'll simply run with pre-planned levels of austerity and put through a budget that doesn't increase it, topped with some cheap tax cuts at the low end a few token taxes at the top end. Then they'll hope for good growth over the next couple of years and call a new election when the time is right.

 

[Destination]

I'd think if anyone was planning a holiday this summer buy your foreign currency before Thursday, as if the government changes the pound will be battered for several months off the back of Ed's tombstone residing in Westminster.

 

[Outcast]

The Tories are bailing

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/pol...-win-oldest-Conservative-think-tank-says.html

In an emailed message to 10,000 supporters, the Bow Group - which was founded in 1951 - told Conservatives to vote Ukip in Rochester and Strood – which is being fought by former Tory MP Mark Reckless – as well as Heywood and Middleton, Great Grimsby, Boston and Skegness and Barrow in Furness.

Mr Harris-Quinney, who runs an organisation called Conservative Grassroots Ltd and has been at times a critic of the Tories, said: “Our preference at this election is a Conservative majority, but few in the Conservative Party will acknowledge the reality that this is now very unlikely to happen, and without that acknowledgement we are sleep-walking into a Labour government.

 

[Mercenary Keyboard Warrior]

My guess is that they'll simply run with pre-planned levels of austerity and put through a budget that doesn't increase it, topped with some cheap tax cuts at the low end a few token taxes at the top end. Then they'll hope for good growth over the next couple of years and call a new election when the time is right.

Almost certainly wont be able to, they need 66% to vote for that after the fixed term parliament act. Not sure, but would seem obvious, that the act has itself been protected by the same 66%

 

[Mr Jack]

Almost certainly wont be able to, they need 66% to vote for that after the fixed term parliament act. Not sure, but would seem obvious, that the act has itself been protected by the same 66%

The act isn't. And even if it was modifying the act would only require a 50% vote, although it's possible the Lords might object.

I don't fancy the fixed term parliament act's chances of lasting this parliament (and good riddance, frankly).

 

[Mr Jack]

It's worth having a look at the Cabinet Manual and reading the section on what happens in the case of a hung parliament (p.14 and on).

 

[scorza]

Anyone see that BBC News report about the protestors that follow Jim Murphy around everywhere and shout over the top of him so no-one can hear him? When a reporter asked a protestor if that was democracy he replied, "democracy is dead". Music to Rupert Murdoch's ears I suspect.

 

[StriderX]

Tbh, Jim Murphy doesnt have anything of worth to say...so

 

[the_r_sole]

Anyone see that BBC News report about the protestors that follow Jim Murphy around everywhere and shout over the top of him so no-one can hear him? When a reporter asked a protestor if that was democracy he replied, "democracy is dead". Music to Rupert Murdoch's ears I suspect.

i think they are paid by jim murphy, gets him publicity and he knows that the more people hear they'll realise that he would say anything to anyone to get a sniff at a vote!
If you can't hear anything you can't hear the contradictions!

 

[Mercenary Keyboard Warrior]

The act isn't. And even if it was modifying the act would only require a 50% vote, although it's possible the Lords might object.

I don't fancy the fixed term parliament act's chances of lasting this parliament (and good riddance, frankly).

Seems strange to pass legislation requiring 66% that could be amended that simply by 50%, but then there would be reasons why not to do it, and possibly its impossible with our laws.

My view was its was one of the best pieces of legislation for a while, stopping the government timing the election to suit themselves. So I am quite interested why you say good riddance. What does this piece of legislation offer that's not an improvement compared to a government playing the polls?

 

[Mercenary Keyboard Warrior]

Or a government could suffer a no confidence defeat and no new government be able to get the support of the house within two weeks. That'd trigger an election, too.

Well yeah of course its the main way it would be superceeded a vote of no confidence.

 

[Mercenary Keyboard Warrior]

Anyone see that BBC News report about the protestors that follow Jim Murphy around everywhere and shout over the top of him so no-one can hear him? When a reporter asked a protestor if that was democracy he replied, "democracy is dead". Music to Rupert Murdoch's ears I suspect.

Scots (some) carrying on exactly as they did in indy vote. No surprises there.

 

[SpeedFreak]

Labour have just trotted out Steve Coogan. He states:

"I'm successful and quite comfortably off."

Not much hope for most people if their definition of comfortable is a net worth of 5-10 million.


How on earth does any party think that celebrity endorsed adverts helps engage them with the regular voter. I am sure the Conservatives are as bad but that is several I have seen now from Labour.

 

[StriderX]

Confirms their Redtory attitude tbh.

 

[do_ron_ron]

Scots (some) carrying on exactly as they did in indy vote. No surprises there.

Good to see someone passionate about this dull election. Personally I think that we should all heckle and abuse MPs. They take decisions that affect us detrimentally and expect us to sit back while they give us a party election broadcast.
The people of Britain have forgotten they are OUR employees, they owe their position to US. It is really time for the people to voice their anger at the way this country has been governed over the last 30+ years and heckle MPs.

 

[Bear]

Scots (some) carrying on exactly as they did in indy vote. No surprises there.

Yep pretty much sums up the head case nationalists, they just shout down anyone that doesn't agree with them.