Gibbo ETA for 3900x?

mikeym · 5 Aug 2019 at 18:10

My patience is wavering. Going to try and stay strong as I'm sure I'll have buyers remorse if I switch to a 3700x...

ComingThrough · 5 Aug 2019 at 18:17

It is completely insane. I can't even test my hardware! I was hoping AMD would provide loaner CPUs for those waiting but I guess I was way too optimistic as they don't even bother making a statement about stock.

Boot_Loop · 5 Aug 2019 at 18:21

Need to get hold of AMD Robert Hallock on Reddit and ask him about the stock situation. He'll know even though he's more on the tech side.

ComingThrough · 5 Aug 2019 at 18:23

Boot_Loop said:
Need to get hold of AMD Robert Hallock on Reddit and ask him about the stock situation. He'll know even though he's more on the tech side.

I @'d him on reddit once or twice but he never responded. They don't want any information to come out as it's probably not good.

Zernath · 5 Aug 2019 at 18:30

ComingThrough said:
I @'d him on reddit once or twice but he never responded. They don't want any information to come out as it's probably not good.

They haven't manufactured enough to cover demand, but won't admit it as they'll look stupid. Perhaps they've had other issues, but since they're not talking about it, who knows!

ComingThrough · 5 Aug 2019 at 18:37

Zernath said:
They haven't manufactured enough to cover demand, but won't admit it as they'll look stupid. Perhaps they've had other issues, but since they're not talking about it, who knows!

That was definitely deliberate though. Stores got like what, 10-20 units at launch? It would be understandable if they send around a 100 to each store and it all sold out but they sent a bare minimum amount simply because they don't have more.

Zernath · 5 Aug 2019 at 18:40

ComingThrough said:
That was definitely deliberate though. Stores got like what, 10-20 units at launch? It would be understandable if they send around a 100 to each store and it all sold out but they sent a bare minimum amount simply because they don't have more.

I think Europe in particular definitely got shafted, although U.S consumers are also complaining. Paper launch with only a very limited number of units actually shipped.

Vince · 5 Aug 2019 at 18:40

ComingThrough said:
That was definitely deliberate though. Stores got like what, 10-20 units at launch? It would be understandable if they send around a 100 to each store and it all sold out but they sent a bare minimum amount simply because they don't have more.

Seems right to me... the crucial bit is probably that they dont have enough bottom of the barrel silicon to make these "bottom of the barrel" chips. Yes I get that I'm talking a 12 core part as bottom of the barrel and I honestly believe that is what it is. I think these are without doubt lower bins if what we hear about yields is true. It might also explain why we are seeing the X parts but not the non X, they simply dont have as much lower binned silicon as we think they do.

If this rings true TR might well be an absolute monster.

ComingThrough · 5 Aug 2019 at 19:27

Slightly offtopic question, does anyone know if XFR2 and PBO void warranty on 3rd gen ryzens?

kitfit1 · 5 Aug 2019 at 19:36

ComingThrough said:
Slightly offtopic question, does anyone know if XFR2 and PBO void warranty on 3rd gen ryzens?

It wouldn't matter if it did. With a dead cpu, there is no way AMD or Intel is going to examine it forensically to find out..............they will just replace it.

ComingThrough · 5 Aug 2019 at 19:40

kitfit1 said:
It wouldn't matter if it did. With a dead cpu, there is no way AMD or Intel is going to examine it forensically to find out..............they will just replace it.

Hmm, makes sense. I hope PBO doesn't completely skyrocket the temps.

Boot_Loop · 5 Aug 2019 at 22:31

Has Gibbo said what ballpark number of units OCUK got? Would be interedting to know.

I hope more than 20 3900X's...

mikeym · 5 Aug 2019 at 23:27

From a week or 2 ago...

Gibbo said:
Around 200 pre orders and 350 due on but nothing to say AMD won’t only deliver 150 as I’ve had shipment notifications on other lines but the full amount order did not arrive.

Edit: just realised you were querying no. already received. Not sure thats been mentioned. I'll go to bed now! :rolleyes:

pmc25 · 6 Aug 2019 at 00:44

Zernath said:
They haven't manufactured enough to cover demand, but won't admit it as they'll look stupid. Perhaps they've had other issues, but since they're not talking about it, who knows!

Why would they look stupid? They warned repeatedly that they likely didn't have enough wafers for the rest of the year, and that Q3 would be a particular squeeze.

I warned as much here prior to launch, and people completely ignored it, and now some of the same people are acting with surprise and outrage when there's nowhere near enough stock.

Ramp won't happen to any great extent until middle of this month.

Wafer availability is also what determines how late TR4 arrives - they wanted it in August, September looks unlikely, and minimal availability in October likely but far from ideal (stock will be LOW but they need it out by then).

Furthermore, you guessed it, bigger Navi launch is largely determined by wafer availability. They could launch this year ... but I doubt they'll have more than a trickle of stock if they do.

They should have considerably more wafers from Jan / Feb of next year.

HRL · 6 Aug 2019 at 01:26

It’s nothing to do with binning chiplets for the 3950X that’s inbound next month causing shortages then?

pmc25 · 6 Aug 2019 at 04:35

HRL said:
It’s nothing to do with binning chiplets for the 3950X that’s inbound next month causing shortages then?

Binning for EPYC will take up far more than the 3950X or TR4 ever will.

But the point seems to have completely gone over your head. They have a relatively small number of wafers to work with. So there are a small number of chips going into each bin.

Whether it be Ryzen 3xxx, TR4 3xxx, or EPYC, they will not have enough chips because they do not have enough wafers.

As I said, there should be a bit of a ramp this month, but it'll be another 2-3 months before that gets through to the channel. Taps won't truly open until early next year, as TSMC should have more than enough wafers for them by then.

Boot_Loop · 6 Aug 2019 at 06:32

pmc25 said:
Binning for EPYC will take up far more than the 3950X or TR4 ever will.

But the point seems to have completely gone over your head. They have a relatively small number of wafers to work with. So there are a small number of chips going into each bin.

Whether it be Ryzen 3xxx, TR4 3xxx, or EPYC, they will not have enough chips because they do not have enough wafers.

As I said, there should be a bit of a ramp this month, but it'll be another 2-3 months before that gets through to the channel. Taps won't truly open until early next year, as TSMC should have more than enough wafers for them by then.

How do you know all this? What is your source/s? Are you extrapolating a constrained supply scenario because TSMC are their sole provider of 7nm chips covering both Ryzen and Navi?

I mean being supply constrained at launch for a new product is 100% normal. I have seen no evidence yet that AMD have an extra-ordinary situation here whereby supply will only be able to fill demand 'in 2-3 months' or early next-year as you suggested.

mikeym said:
From a week or 2 ago...

Edit: just realised you were querying no. already received. Not sure thats been mentioned. I'll go to bed now!

No that's the kind of info I was looking for, thanks.

marms · 6 Aug 2019 at 06:37

pmc25 said:
Binning for EPYC will take up far more than the 3950X or TR4 ever will.

But the point seems to have completely gone over your head. They have a relatively small number of wafers to work with. So there are a small number of chips going into each bin.

Whether it be Ryzen 3xxx, TR4 3xxx, or EPYC, they will not have enough chips because they do not have enough wafers.

As I said, there should be a bit of a ramp this month, but it'll be another 2-3 months before that gets through to the channel. Taps won't truly open until early next year, as TSMC should have more than enough wafers for them by then.

Overclockers have stock of every 3000 series processor released except the 3900x
Either TR4 and Epyc are taking the fastest cores or they simply don't have enough cores fast enough

Boot_Loop · 6 Aug 2019 at 06:51

marms said:
Overclockers have stock of every 3000 series processor released except the 3900x
Either TR4 and Epyc are taking the fastest cores or they simply don't have enough cores fast enough

Yeah I could have misconstrued his post but I took it he was saying all of Ryzen 3000 will be supply constrained for 2-3 months or until next year. Which I don't believe until evidence is supplied.

If he meant 3900X specifically, then it still seems fanciful.

HRL · 6 Aug 2019 at 07:24

pmc25 said:
Binning for EPYC will take up far more than the 3950X or TR4 ever will.

But the point seems to have completely gone over your head. They have a relatively small number of wafers to work with. So there are a small number of chips going into each bin.

Whether it be Ryzen 3xxx, TR4 3xxx, or EPYC, they will not have enough chips because they do not have enough wafers.

As I said, there should be a bit of a ramp this month, but it'll be another 2-3 months before that gets through to the channel. Taps won't truly open until early next year, as TSMC should have more than enough wafers for them by then.

Bit harsh but as someone else pointed out, in case you missed it, stock isn’t an issue for any of the other SKU’s, only the 3900X.