It may be massively more capable, but it has 3 (quite big) things standing in its way.
1. It is all very disjointed. In several ways. They have multiple apps that should all just be one (such as a media player), and it has an inconsistent user experience.
Media player? Not even the iPhone has a dedicated media player that plays everything. You want to view videos, you go to the videos app, music... the music app. Not many machines that arent a PC/laptop in one form or another do actually have a 'media player' in their stock OS.
Depending on manufacturer, and sometimes even just depending on device. I mean the Hero is one of the latest handsets, yet it can't run google goggles, that google are pimping! So there is a lack of continuity for users. Google should also release their OWN sync software for android that works across all handsets, right now with the Hero u need to use HTC sync, and i dare say the droid will use some Moto software, and SE will be different again. Also make the same sync app for Windows and Mac! It's not like google don't have the resources.
You make a valid point however the whole point behind the Google Android OS is that it doesn't need a sync app. It's constantly and permanantly synched with your Google Mail, Google Calendar etc. I for one use those in exclusivity so my experience is seamless. I've never felt the need for a sync app. When I've had to wipe my phone or update the OS it's always been an entirely painless experience.
Android will end up a back end and the handset manufacturers will just skin over the top of it, which is all wrong! Let hardware people do hardware, software people do the software. I mean look how the droid has 2.0 yet nobody else can get it. What's that all about??
Alegidly 2.1 will be available for the Hero before Christmas - personally I'm not holding my breath.
2. Lack of developer support. Sure devs moan and whine about iPhones closed development, and the randomness how they block applications and stuff. But i look on the App store, i see people companies like EA and pop cap releasing games like tiger woods (which is excellent) and peggle, on the iPhone, but the Android is all just home devs releasing free games. That could win it alone since the iPhone could do most things a DS does.
Sure if you spend all your time gaming. I do agree with you tho, there has to be a reworking of how the market/app system works. The reason why there is a lack of Dev support is because there isn't any money in it. The same goes for the iPhones App Store. I don't agree that it's the be all and end all of the smart phone market. There are a whole host of quality apps for Android that both look good and do their job really well.
Astrid, ChompSMS, CoPilot Live, GPS Status, Keeper, Ringdroid, Shazam, ShopSavvy, Toilet Finder (a personal Fav in London), Wikitude etc... they're there if you can be bothered to look them up.
3. The marketplace is awful. Sure there is some decent apps, bit forget trying to find them unless you know the name of them. The amount of apps and games i have stumbled across on the App store because it is well layed out, with nice top 50's etc. The marketplace is a case of, ehhhh? Where is the good stuff at.
Yeah this I agree with completely the market place is a mare. This they need to sort out pronto and the iPhone store should be a prime example of how it's done.
Until Google sort the above, Android will not be a serious force. I have said before, i think it still feels very beta in places. They need to get a UI specialist in and sort it out. Gaming companies are going to 3rd parties for a lot of their UIs now. Google should do it too.
To a certain extent I agree with you, but also disagree. The base android OS UI is pretty sparse but very utilitarian. It works, it's not flashy but it gets the job done. I'm hanging out to have a play with the Nexus One so that I can see what they've done with the UI on that, because I suspect they have actually done some work on differentiating it from the standard Android UI.
Android is in early stages and you are right, it does show in some areas, but in others it shines, not the least in the fact that you have a choice in hardware and Network providers. Already it's become quite a presence in the modding arena and you'll notice that Google are not trying too hard to prevent people from Rooting their phones. Apple have a collective apoplexy everytime the iPhone OS gets hacked and they very promptly act to patch it. That in itself strikes me as a decent reason for Android being the better OS and the more promising.