McLaren would be insane to let him go, but like many have said, Hamilton would be insane to leave based on his options.
not winning the title, 12mil a year and one personal sponsorship deal, or not winning a title and 12-15mil a year but multiple personal sponsorship deals that could probably double the total amount he could make while at Mclaren?
How many titles have Mclaren won in the past decade, how many have Mercedes(by any other name) won, how many have Red Bull and Ferrari won.
Is Mclaren really a better option because today and the past 4 races he's had the best car on the grid but a car/team combination that over the course of the season isn't strong enough to win the title.... again?
The fact is that at this second in time it doesn't look like he'll win the title this year and there is nothing to suggest Mclaren will be stronger(or worse) next year. Their current history isn't very good, their history of monumental screw ups of winning positions is probably the worst of any top team while Hamilton has been there. Mercedes might have the best car next year, it could be Mclown, it could be Ferrari, RBR, Lotus, would you really turn down twice the money, silly money, because Mclaren might be the best car next year? Second is almost pointless, no one gives a crap about anything but winning, there is nothing to suggest Mclaren will win next year.
He'd look equally stupid staying at Mclaren and making half the money and Merc beating Mclaren next year as going to Mercedes and Mclaren beating Merc next year... either way he'd have a crapload more money at Merc.
There is no right choice, its almost complete luck over which car will be better next year, there isn't any luck in chosing the best contract.