Is the end of Battery EVs coming?

[adam cool dude]

I've done almost 1000 miles in a day in my Model S, long distances are not an issue at all.

Or another example, an 840 mile drive from Virginia to Florida.

It's just not a problem in reality. I remember during that Jacksonville charge I was having dinner and the car was ready before we were done eating!

That is all well and good if you want to stop all the time but you are adding hours onto your journey time. Completely different roads to the states but I do 1200 across Europe in the summer to my mothers. Two split drivers basically non stop. Fill up with fuel once in Germany and that's it. I have two weeks off so don't want to waste my holiday time. We leave UK at night and arrive at our destination the next evening.

 

[Jonnycoupe]

Everything you just said are things you do not need to worry about with or do in an ICE so you have just completely justified my point. Thanks.

Nah you are still guessing, that’s all your point is.

Your mate is screwed either way… he’s a spurs fan.

 

[lordrobs]

That is all well and good if you want to stop all the time but you are adding hours onto your journey time. Completely different roads to the states but I do 1200 across Europe in the summer to my mothers. Two split drivers basically non stop. Fill up with fuel once in Germany and that's it. I have two weeks off so don't want to waste my holiday time. We leave UK at night and arrive at our destination the next evening.

Unless I'm reading it wrong there was less than an hour of charging time on a 1000 mile trip.

I must admit that is both surprising and impressive.

If the network of rapid chargers around the UK gets to the point where you can, without having to give it a second thought, spend that amount of time charging to cover half that distance then any resistance to going EV because of time lost to charging is just clutching at straws for those who are able to charge at home.

 

[bigmike20vt]

Electric cars are already too expensive, so I can't wait to be priced out of the market even further when hydrogen cars arrive, because those things will cost twice as much.

even if H2 cars launch properly in this country, EVs are here to stay....... and frankly whilst i would be dissapointed if there is a launch of hydrogen cars, if push comes to shove i am pretty confident that the market will decide and will force the issue (it is happening already in America, with many of the few H2 fueling stations being closed).
i just dont see many people buying hydrogen cars when they see the running costs.... .and IF the government chose to subsidise H2 cars so much and to heavily tax pure EVs so much as to make them equivalent in running and purchase costs, i think there are enough of the electorate who will push back against it.

There are some areas which EV cars currently are not great with..... lets be honest, even with the best EV money can buy, would would want to have to tow a pushing 2 tonne caravan from the south of England to Scotland........
but then i wouldnt really want to do it in a H2 powered vehicle either.

*for now* there IS a use for some ICE vehicles...... come 2035 however i would expect all large caravans to be able to be specced with a battery in them to increase range, and there will be suitable chargers for such vehicles.
But that is the thing the anti EV press ignore..... they wax on about how EVs are not good for certain things (like towing a large caravan for instance and being able to charge them if you do) whilst ignoring the obvious fact that for those people who need that, who are a small percentage of drivers, they still have a decade that they can buy an ICE if they need, and even after that, the ICE cars on the road wont be confiscated and crushed.

2040 - 2050 is realistically the time where IF nothing has improved, those towing stuff will begin to have problems.

but a hell of a lot can and will happen in 15 years...... just look back to 2009 at the best EV around back then (pre leaf even)

 

[adam cool dude]

Unless I'm reading it wrong there was less than an hour of charging time on a 1000 mile trip.

I must admit that is both surprising and impressive.

If the network of rapid chargers around the UK gets to the point where you can, without having to give it a second thought, spend that amount of time charging to cover half that distance then any resistance to going EV because of time lost to charging is just clutching at straws for those who are able to charge at home.

You are reading charging time. That doesn't include idling time or deviating from route time.

 

[Mercenary Keyboard Warrior]

Its irrelevant anyway, for those insisting on ICE they can keep it.
Eventually petrol stations are going to become rarer as the number using them drops.
And probably pricing will go up from tax as well as having to make more profit per litre to support the reduced volume they supply.
Its just a matter of when it starts to kick in. (Its not for 10 years or so for sure)

Deviations for stations, probably finding they have supply issues, can't support being open 24/7 will become the reality of ICE.
The future looks bleak

 

[bigmike20vt]

You are reading charging time. That doesn't include idling time or deviating from route time.

over the course of a year the people who can charge at home will save far more time "filling" their car than those filling with petrol.

imo it isnt a fair comparison to only time the ones where it is a public charge and the driver is having to stop to charge for zero other reason than to charge their car.

if you need to stop for a snack or a toilet break , you charge your car then, and in which case it only takes a few mins longer to pull into a charging bay than it does a normal parking bay.

but if you need to fill with fuel you have to go to a different place either before or after your stop, and stand around whilst filling up and then (unless it is pay at pump) go in and potentially queue to pay.

so the only charging which will take longer than having an ICE car are those where you are only stopping to charge and no other reason, OR the times where you stop to charge and there isnt a free chargepoint (and from experience - it did happen to me once in 10 months of ownership, where the app told me there were multiple available charge points and when i got they they were either blocked or out of order despite being green on the app and that did suck balls!).

and i go back to what i said in the 1st line... taking the average, for the vast majority of people (who can charge at home), the EV will "waste" less of your life fueling it than an ICE imo.

Those who cant charge at home - and there are many - the equation is different and i dont think anyone would argue that much more needs to be done to service those people.

but given this thread is about calling the incoming demise of the battery EV..... there are enough people where a battery EV makes complete sense already to stop that happening imo.

 

[Nasher]

Its irrelevant anyway, for those insisting on ICE they can keep it.
Eventually petrol stations are going to become rarer as the number using them drops.
And probably pricing will go up from tax as well as having to make more profit per litre to support the reduced volume they supply.
Its just a matter of when it starts to kick in. (Its not for 10 years or so for sure)

Deviations for stations, probably finding they have supply issues, can't support being open 24/7 will become the reality of ICE.
The future looks bleak

If you think it's going to be cheaper to run an EV once we get in to the 2030s you are kidding yourself. The government will make sure it isn't. It's already started with them pumping up the tax on them.

 

[Jonnycoupe]

Same tax will go onto ICE at the same if not more rate. You are kidding yourself if you are thinking that’s not going to happen.

What tax are they “pumping up” exactly, if it’s BIK the carrot is simply getting smaller than it was.

 

[Mercenary Keyboard Warrior]

If you think it's going to be cheaper to run an EV once we get in to the 2030s you are kidding yourself. The government will make sure it isn't. It's already started with them pumping up the tax on them.

I didn't mention the costs of running an Ev though, just that the natural logical progression for ICE is very much into the areas that people say is a problem right now for EV.
Its not like its unexpected, the number of petrol stations falls every year. There used to be two on my commute, now zero, so I have to detour to fill up!

Limited fuel stop availability and will decline, and hence price will be higher, due to demand, and you will start to have to take detours etc.

Taxation is taxation, its just a way to extract money from us all.
EV has to pay more for sure, eventually, but right now its driving adoption. Pun intended

 

[Nasher]

I didn't mention the costs of running an Ev though, just that the natural logical progression for ICE is very much into the areas that people say is a problem right now for EV.
Its not like its unexpected, the number of petrol stations falls every year. There used to be two on my commute, now zero, so I have to detour to fill up!

Limited fuel stop availability and will decline, and hence price will be higher, due to demand, and you will start to have to take detours etc.

Taxation is taxation, its just a way to extract money from us all.
EV has to pay more for sure, eventually, but right now its driving adoption. Pun intended

Petrol stations have been vanishing for decades. Almost all of the rural ones are gone because that's not where the profits are. Supermarkets took over in most towns.

I live in a small town and it still has 3 of them within a mile of eachother. There are only 3 EV chargers, one has been broken for at least a year.

 

[Mercenary Keyboard Warrior]

Petrol stations have been vanishing for decades. Almost all of the rural ones are gone because that's not where the profits are.

Exactly and it will continue as even the ones in towns are now starting to consolidate.
So right now they are fine if your route takes you past the correct towns, but as they start to change detours become more likely to be needed.

Jesus its not hard. As demand drops, supply drops.

 

[Nasher]

Exactly and it will continue as even the ones in towns are now starting to consolidate.
So right now they are fine if your route takes you past the correct towns, but as they start to change detours become more likely to be needed.

Jesus its not hard. As demand drops, supply drops.

And as demand drops, so does the price usually...

 

[Mercenary Keyboard Warrior]

And as demand drops, so does the price usually...

No, the price only drops short term whilst the supply reacts
Then you run the risk that economy of scale is lost

There is no way the government is going to allow fuel oils to become cheaper comparatively. If the price drops a lot and stays they will add tax/duty.
100% guaranteed.

 

[Nasher]

No, the price only drops short term whilst the supply reacts
Then you run the risk that economy of scale is lost

There is no way the government is going to allow fuel oils to become cheaper comparatively. If the price drops a lot and stays they will add tax/duty.
100% guaranteed.

OFC they will, but they will also make sure EVs are just as expensive to run.

 

[Mercenary Keyboard Warrior]

OFC they will, but they will also make sure EVs are just as expensive to run.

They wont, Evs will remain cheaper to run whilst the transition takes place.
Once it has happened they will charge what they want, just like they could/can now with ICE.

The future taxation demands and how they are collected are not linked to whether we make an EV transition from ICE

Again the point of this was Adam saying that EV was a problem due to things like taking a diversion when the reality is that as the transition takes place that will become less and less an issue for EV and more and more an issue for ICE.

 

[Haggisman]

It’s not cheaper although that’s only looking as the marginal cost of the journey. Once you factor in all the costs of owning a car, in reality public transport is cheaper.

That depends completely on your usage.

To sit on my drive, the car costs me ~£370/month (that's the car, servicing, insurance).

My mileage costs ~£15 in electricity/month

I'm currently WFH, but if I had to commute by train, it would cost me £16 for a return, so that's £320+/month - that on its own almost covers the cost of the car + servicing.

I drive my other half to work a few times a week as well, depending on her shifts, otherwise she'd need to get a train and bus, so that's another ~£7, or £12 to cover the taxi when they stop running, so another ~£20-30/week, or ~£100/month.

So that's £420/month, that's the insurance + electricity more than covered as well.

We visit my mum in Carlisle a few times a year, that's ~£180 a go (and that's just for the train, never mind the taxi fare to the station, or the taxi/bus fare on the other side), let's average that out, say 3 trips over 12 months = £45/month

We go camping 2-3x a year during the summer, we'd have to rent a car as there's no way we'd get all our camping stuff on the train, and then taxi to a field in the middle of darkest Wales, so that's another £100 or so for a decent sized car, lets average that out again, 3x£100 = £25/month

So, without any ad-hoc weekend trips, shopping trips, taking the kids to various activities etc., we'd be looking at: £320 + £100 + £45 + £25 = £490/month to get rid of the car and rely solely on public transport, e.g. paying at least £100/month for the pleasure of losing that convenience and comfort.

 

[b0rn2sk8]

You are reading charging time. That doesn't include idling time or deviating from route time.

In reality there are now charge points everywhere and little or no deviation is required. Even the NC500 in Scotland has charge points every 40-50 miles, you can do it in a 12 year old 24kwh leaf is your that way inclined.

There are some areas which EV cars currently are not great with..... lets be honest, even with the best EV money can buy, would would want to have to tow a pushing 2 tonne caravan from the south of England to Scotland........
but then i wouldnt really want to do it in a H2 powered vehicle either.

*for now* there IS a use for some ICE vehicles...... come 2035 however i would expect all large caravans to be able to be specced with a battery in them to increase range, and there will be suitable chargers for such vehicles.

I can only see that happening on the most high end of caravans which is not always dictated by their size.

You can get ‘cheap’ caravans which are the maximum size you can tow on a U.K. road. The price difference between the small two birth and it’s much bigger cousin isn’t that significant.

The weight or the length of the caravan doesn’t have an impact on the range when cruising on the motorway. It’s all about the frontal area.

There are big issues with putting a sizeable battery into the caravan itself: cost and weight.

Weight: A lot of caravans are marginal on weight already. Ideally you don’t want to go over 80% of the weight of the vehicle.

You are adding 100’s of KGs to the caravan from all the batteries, motors and a beefed up chassis to take the weight. The heavier the caravan, the bigger the car you need.

Unless something changes drastically I would have thought that the platting of the vehicle would have to factor in the weight of the caravan has a dead weight with no power assistance. Towing capacities on EVs are a bit lower than their ICE counterparts currently so existing caravans can be marginal on weight already.

Cost: Caravans start at about £23k for a brand new one, adding £10k of batteries, motors and associated electronics is going to have an impact. A really high end one costs ~£50k so it’s still going to sting.

There is also the value point, in reality you don’t do those sorts of journeys that often, perhaps once or twice per year, if that. It’s not a great value preposition.

The thing you didn’t mention was the greater potential for off grid. You could go literally anywhere and still have full 240v power. The value issue still remains though. I don’t think you can wild camp in a caravan like you can a motor home, I think the rules are different and you need to be on a site with a caravan. Most sites have a 240v hook up anyway.

You’d still need somewhere to get water as nearly al caravans don’t have onboard tanks and those that do require you to empty them before towing due to the weight.

EV camper vans and motor homes, now I can see that being a major upgrade on what we have now, full 240V power where ever you go and no more stinky diesel heaters. Chuck a nice big solar roof on it and your laughing.

 

[jpaul]

The ICE versus EV refuelling debate is less the "wasted" time it takes to fill the car, and more that you can choose to top up the ICE when it is convenient to you because of it's additional range.
ie. when -you- need to stop for a pee, cup of coffee, see an opportunist garage with empty forecourt, or, just do it the night before
- it's time management, like ability to start out from home with a full EV, too

 

[Nasher]

Yep and you can carry extra cans of fuel, you cant carry extra batteries. We are only thinking from a UK perspective too. Someone drove across Australia in an EV and had to spend 85 hours recharging (it takes around 40 hours driving time)