Is the end of Battery EVs coming?

[Rroff]

The chemistry in EV vehicle batteries is very different to laptop batteries and cannot be compared. EV batteries are engineered specifically for a long life with 10s of thousands of charge cycles. Laptop and phone batteries have different chemistries and additives that increase density and reduce costs.

Depends a lot of depth of discharge - you are only going to get 10+ thousand if you are say maintaining at 70-80% charge and only using 20-30% between charge cycles. Someone running the battery down to say 20% regularly and charging to 100% frequently will probably get somewhere between 1000 and 3000 cycles before capacity starts to degrade by non-negligible amounts and a fairly unpredictable amount after that before the battery is dead or useless.

The chemistry in your average laptop or phone isn't too far behind that - probably talking 6000 cycles in the first case and around 500 in the second.

I have a fairly cheap Toshiba Windows Tablet from 2013 - been hammered - I'd run it down to around 15-20% charge every couple of days and charge it back to 100% - it probably hit around 1800-2000 charge cycles with capacity still above 70%! over the last 10 years and only within the last year it reduced down to about 40-45% capacity based on run time with my normal usage - at which point I finally replaced it.

Phone batteries though I've not had so much luck with - one of the reasons I hate phones you can't easily replace them - my original Samsung Galaxy Note the stock battery barely lasted a year of being run down to about 60-70% and charged to 100% before capacity started to drop off loads and the replacement probably lasted about 3 years before capacity started to drop off noticeably and similar story with other phones.

 

[richolmes72]

I don’t think it’s the end, but feels like a slowing down

For a lot of people a BEV is just a much better proposition, and for a lot of people petrol is. If you have 2 cars, have one of each.

For our lifestyle, a 120 mile real world range small EV is perfect, and vastly superior to drive than a generic 4 cylinder turbo automatic.

The press seems obsessed with one or other, previously pro ev and now anti ev

 

[Mercenary Keyboard Warrior]

Problem is in the real world people still need to do these edge cases. As above for me personally the best solution is some form of hybrid though currently nothing exists at least at my budget which fits all requirements.

Yes they do, but its a low % and some may just have to adapt.
Change always brings some negative with the positive.

Its actually only a very recent thing (probably last 3 decades) that its become "normal" for "normal" people to travel this much in private cars.
For most people a good car that you would realistically set out to do these journeys just didn't happen any further back in time.

People talk like its always happened. There was a reason there was an RAC man on every corner

If you had set out to operate as some take for granted now you would never have been home

 

[bigmike20vt]

it would help if we had public transport worth a damn that didnt cost so much. I travelled accross Germany and parts of France a few years ago now........ the service was top notch and it cost peanuts.

in this country not only does it cost less to drive a single occupancy vehicle (petrol / diesel as well!) than it does to catch the train, its not even like our train service is reliable either, and even IF the train is on time and isnt a bus replacement..... you may not even get a seat.

and (around me at least) the bus service is worse. Busses are ok in cities (or at least the ones i have experience of - Manchester and Cambridge) but once you go a little more rural they are utterly terrible.... (I tried using the bus to get to work a few times and often - if it was running late or full - it would just skip out my stop, and there was only 1 bus an hour).

IF i could get from my house (15 miles from Cambridge) to Scotland via public transport, and it was cost effective to do it (and reliable) then i wouldnt need to drive it. i would much rather go on train where i could have a seat and a table and either do work or play on my steam deck or read a book.

 

[sovietspybob]

That's exactly how I find it. My site visits are more like one or two a week but I can really make the time work for me when I know that a full tank means I've got more mileage than I could possibly require in a day.

The bodily functions element always comes up as soon as EVs are mentioned which makes me chuckle. If I need a wee... Guess what, I stop for a wee in any garage, supermarket, McDonald's... I like. I don't have to think "Ooh, if I can hang on another half an hour I'll be at Rugby services and a 20 minute rapid charge should get me home". Travelling with kids must be a nightmare with stops strategically pre planned before you set off!

Destination charging will be the ultimate convenience solution IMO. I was onsite today and took the opportunity to nip into IKEA to get some playroom storage and parked opposite a mostly empty bank of chargers. No idea what speed they were but if I was in an EV that would have been a handy top-up while I got lost in the IKEA maze and downed a dozen meat balls. I was probably there best part of an hour.

We did a trip to the lake district about 18 months ago with a 3 year old, we had to stop 3 times and i took an interest at each place we happened to stop, every one of them had an EV charger (Mcdonalds and 2 service stations), it was only on the way back we stopped at one garden centre which didn't have anything. So if we did have an EV it would have been a non issue really, especially as you'll know kids take forever to do anything so even stopping for a wee turns into a 20+ minute stop which would give you loads of added range if you needed it.

 

[BUDFORCE]

For me it is solely down to cost, EVs just cost too much money.

I'm not convinced how good they are for the environment either.

I guess in theory if the are produced using renewable energy, most of the materials are not that rare, other than the battery.

But a modern petrol car puts out pretty low emissions, and can last 20+ years.

My Volvo is 2013 so 11 years old this year, it's euro whatever (can drive in ULEZ) and other than a little wear and tear it's in really good condition, with the exception of crashing it or some major mechanical faults (let's face it that can happen with an EV) it should go at least another 10 years, probably longer.

I bought it second hand 6 years ago paid £7800. If you start working out the cost per month that's getting pretty cheap, plus every year it goes that figure gets less.

That's currently £108 a month.

I service it myself and this year was it's first MOT failure, track rod end which I got the garage to do which cost me £190 that's included MOT and tracking done, that's also something that can still happen in an EV.

You just cannot get that value out of elan EV not anywhere close, electric isn't even that cheap now.

A second hand Renault Zoe which is smaller, 70 horsepower less would cost about 11k for a 2-3 year old one with lowish mileage, say 30k, that's looking at auto trader.

That's already 3 years old, say add another 12 years on, that's £76 per month, but that's probably all you are going to get out of it.

If I add another 12 years on my Volvo, that's £36 a month overall.

So £912 a year for an EV.

£432 a year for my car.

That's assuming in 12 years time they both lasted.

Plus at the end of that the Volvo will still probably work, where as it's new battery for the EV making it effectively worth nothing.

Also keep in mind the practicality of lower range, smaller car, less power.

Admittedly that is closer than it used to be say 2-3 years ago, seems the value of used EVs is tanking, which is improving the cost comparison, but I still don't think it's worth it.

 

[Jono8]

All Rowans fault apparently, and nothing at all down to the fact that people don’t want them..

https://twitter.com/x/status/1755177862687039737

And before the usual bunch start squawking “GBeebies” its ref an article he wrote for the Guardian.

This is a bit silly. The large majority of people don't care about a car's "soul" or how it feels to drive or any of that stuff. Atkinson is a big petrol head so.m

Most of the population just want transport.

 

[lordrobs]

We did a trip to the lake district about 18 months ago with a 3 year old, we had to stop 3 times and i took an interest at each place we happened to stop, every one of them had an EV charger (Mcdonalds and 2 service stations), it was only on the way back we stopped at one garden centre which didn't have anything. So if we did have an EV it would have been a non issue really, especially as you'll know kids take forever to do anything so even stopping for a wee turns into a 20+ minute stop which would give you loads of added range if you needed it.

Would you rely on a McDonalds with two chargers as a charging opportunity on a long journey though? I guess you could look at it in terms of I'll plan to charge at X miles but if we stop before then and the opportunity is there I'll top up when I can. I don't run an EV though so I can only go on what I read but the message seems to be that the key is 'advanced planning and always have a backup'. Maybe that isn't required anymore? The situation is fluid because more chargers are going in but there is also talk of another million EVs being sold in the next two years.

Hotels on the whole, at least the sort that I frequent for work, are shocking for charging not just in terms of availability but also reliability. Mid week in a Premier Inn there are plenty of us "edge case" workers in our cars and vans who at some point will have to transition from ICE. That single token gesture 7kW charger in the car park isn't really going to cut it!

 

[sparkymark75]

For me it is solely down to cost, EVs just cost too much money.

I'm not convinced how good they are for the environment either.

I guess in theory if the are produced using renewable energy, most of the materials are not that rare, other than the battery.

But a modern petrol car puts out pretty low emissions, and can last 20+ years.

My Volvo is 2013 so 11 years old this year, it's euro whatever (can drive in ULEZ) and other than a little wear and tear it's in really good condition, with the exception of crashing it or some major mechanical faults (let's face it that can happen with an EV) it should go at least another 10 years, probably longer.

I bought it second hand 6 years ago paid £7800. If you start working out the cost per month that's getting pretty cheap, plus every year it goes that figure gets less.

That's currently £108 a month.

I service it myself and this year was it's first MOT failure, track rod end which I got the garage to do which cost me £190 that's included MOT and tracking done, that's also something that can still happen in an EV.

You just cannot get that value out of elan EV not anywhere close, electric isn't even that cheap now.

A second hand Renault Zoe which is smaller, 70 horsepower less would cost about 11k for a 2-3 year old one with lowish mileage, say 30k, that's looking at auto trader.

That's already 3 years old, say add another 12 years on, that's £76 per month, but that's probably all you are going to get out of it.

If I add another 12 years on my Volvo, that's £36 a month overall.

So £912 a year for an EV.

£432 a year for my car.

That's assuming in 12 years time they both lasted.

Plus at the end of that the Volvo will still probably work, where as it's new battery for the EV making it effectively worth nothing.

Also keep in mind the practicality of lower range, smaller car, less power.

Admittedly that is closer than it used to be say 2-3 years ago, seems the value of used EVs is tanking, which is improving the cost comparison, but I still don't think it's worth it.

They are better for the environment but not perfect. I don't know anyone that claims they are. But you will then get idiots on social media suddenly becoming environmentalists, nature lovers and mining experts claiming all sorts of bad things about how an EV is made but overlooking all the downsides to extracting, refining and burning fossil fuels and the metals that go into any car regardless of how its fuelled. It's either people that are afraid of change, tin foil hat wearers claiming we are being "controlled" or oil funded lobbysists (like Tufton street and its NetZeroWatch propaganda account).

 

[sparkymark75]

This is a bit silly. The large majority of people don't care about a car's "soul" or how it feels to drive or any of that stuff. Atkinson is a big petrol head so.m

Most of the population just want transport.

tbf, he did spout a load of nonsense and the usual FUD you see for EVs but I don't think you can lay the blame on him for it. It's the media funded by big oil.

 

[bigmike20vt]

tbf, he did spout a load of nonsense and the usual FUD you see for EVs but I don't think you can lay the blame on him for it. It's the media funded by big oil.

i kind of agree..... I dont think he was lying but the man is a very intelligent bloke imo and is an engineer iirc. It is................... disappointing that he is as out of touch as he is about the battery chemistry along with highlighting the manufacturing of batteries but ignoring the damage of going from oil in the ground to petrol in your tank.

The bit about the soul is fair enough, even if you disagree with him it is his view, its a subjective thing and whilst it may be out of touch with the masses its not right or wrong ... (and in truth i dont 100% disagree with him - I like the sound of a nice petrol engine on a sports car along with the feel of the engine as you rev through the gears as much as the next petrol head)..... but unfortunately I think that is just something we are going to have to let go, and as you correctly say, for most people, they are not petrol heads, they just want a reliable, comfortable, affordable to run car.

My consience really had to fight the devil on my shoulder when i bought our 1st EV......... I knew it was totally irresponsible but i really wanted to buy a (yellow of course) Chevy Camaro and I could have afforded a really high spec one as well for the cost of my ipace......... It would have gone against everything I believe in however so i chose to go with the best "drivers" EV that i could afford instead. I fully admit it may not have the "soul" of the petrol car however.

I still miss both my 1st fiat coupe and my nissan 350z as well and very nearly bought a 4.5l TVR Cerbera back in the day. I am well aware of the joy a nice petrol car can bring.

 

[Haggisman]

For me it is solely down to cost, EVs just cost too much money.

I'm not convinced how good they are for the environment either.

I guess in theory if the are produced using renewable energy, most of the materials are not that rare, other than the battery.

But a modern petrol car puts out pretty low emissions, and can last 20+ years.

My Volvo is 2013 so 11 years old this year, it's euro whatever (can drive in ULEZ) and other than a little wear and tear it's in really good condition, with the exception of crashing it or some major mechanical faults (let's face it that can happen with an EV) it should go at least another 10 years, probably longer.

I bought it second hand 6 years ago paid £7800. If you start working out the cost per month that's getting pretty cheap, plus every year it goes that figure gets less.

That's currently £108 a month.

I service it myself and this year was it's first MOT failure, track rod end which I got the garage to do which cost me £190 that's included MOT and tracking done, that's also something that can still happen in an EV.

You just cannot get that value out of elan EV not anywhere close, electric isn't even that cheap now.

A second hand Renault Zoe which is smaller, 70 horsepower less would cost about 11k for a 2-3 year old one with lowish mileage, say 30k, that's looking at auto trader.

That's already 3 years old, say add another 12 years on, that's £76 per month, but that's probably all you are going to get out of it.

If I add another 12 years on my Volvo, that's £36 a month overall.

So £912 a year for an EV.

£432 a year for my car.

That's assuming in 12 years time they both lasted.

Plus at the end of that the Volvo will still probably work, where as it's new battery for the EV making it effectively worth nothing.

Also keep in mind the practicality of lower range, smaller car, less power.

Admittedly that is closer than it used to be say 2-3 years ago, seems the value of used EVs is tanking, which is improving the cost comparison, but I still don't think it's worth it.

You forgot to account for fuel. That £480/year difference is ~4.5k miles worth, comparing an EV doing 3.6mi/kw @ 7.5p/kw vs a petrol car doing 45mpg @ £1.30/L

The bit about the soul is fair enough, even if you disagree with him it is his view, its a subjective thing and whilst it may be out of touch with the masses its not right or wrong ... (and in truth i dont 100% disagree with him - I like the sound of a nice petrol engine on a sports car along with the feel of the engine as you rev through the gears as much as the next petrol head)..... but unfortunately I think that is just something we are going to have to let go, and as you correctly say, for most people, they are not petrol heads, they just want a reliable, comfortable, affordable to run car.

If it stops the local youth from "enjoying the soul" of their car at 3am, then that can only be a good thing

 

[Rilot]

Where is the information that Volvo are pulling development of EVs? I see they are pulling out of funding Polester but my understanding is that they are doing this so that Geely could take more control directly rather than it being a sub-brand of a sub-brand how it is now.
Also, where is the information on the other brands pulling EV development. I'm not seeing this anywhere.

 

[bloodiedathame]

As with everything, it's important to separate fact from opinion, and I've seen a lot of the latter and none of the former. But I'll whack mine in for good measure.

Though I own a BEV (2015 Leaf) and it's been fine, I also own two classic vehicles and a diesel estate so I'm no fanboy.

Do I think BEVs are the future? No. Do I think they're a stop-gap to other technology? Yup. Does that technology currently exist? Nope.

And for that reason, they've got a few years left in them yet. The auto industry could have made it work, Tesla have done incredibly well with their vehicles and network. But for everyone else. too many charger types, too many dead charge points, too few and far between, and charging that got super expensive almost overnight killed it.

If people could charge their cars again for 3p/kWh like I used to, then I'm sure they'd take off again.

 

[nsmalley]

The thing is, it's not just about global climate change but local pollution and the costs associated with. E.g Public health England report and subsequent revised estimates that air pollution related health issues costs the NHS billions a year, and tens of thousands of deaths. Now I don't buy in figures at the high end but even taking the middle that's a lot of people dead and wasted NHS money we could potentially be helping save

 

[Hawk Tuah]

Though I own a BEV (2015 Leaf) and it's been fine, I also own two classic vehicles and a diesel estate so I'm no fanboy.

As an owners of a 2014 Leaf and a Q8 Etron - I can assure you, if you used the etron for a few weeks, you'd see that BEV is here to stay. It's a completely different experience having 200+ miles of range to play with than what the Leaf can do.

 

[bloodiedathame]

As an owners of a 2014 Leaf and a Q8 Etron - I can assure you, if you used the etron for a few weeks, you'd see that BEV is here to stay. It's a completely different experience having 200+ miles of range to play with than what the Leaf can do.

Oh, I'd definitely get another if the price was right. In fact, we're considering options at the moment with the company car scheme.

 

[Manbatius]

This feels like one of those threads where pro and anti EV have some sort of mortal kombat and multiple bans are dished out.

But in response to the title, I do not think it is the end. I think many solutions on the market has it's use. It's just whatever suits budget and use.

 

[bigmike20vt]

does anyone remember the compressed air car from TATA ? would have been nice if it had happened but i dont think you needed a crystal ball to see it was unlikely to be practical.

That said i would still not be shocked to see the daily express write an "opinion piece" about how if we wait another generation we will see clean air cars.

 

[DarrenM343]

Where is the information that Volvo are pulling development of EVs? I see they are pulling out of funding Polester but my understanding is that they are doing this so that Geely could take more control directly rather than it being a sub-brand of a sub-brand how it is now.
Also, where is the information on the other brands pulling EV development. I'm not seeing this anywhere.

I've seen the odd Youtube video pop up about this but I expect they're got the wrong end of the stick. Toyota one was about I think (never bothered watching) but I very much doubt they're pulling out of the EV market and are supposed to have vehicles in development. Toyota apparently have stated that EV's will never reach over 30% of the new car market share, which I assume is globally rather than per country which kind of makes more sense.