It's snowing

Jokester said:
Just because you've been working out the average wrong for 200 years doesn't make it anymore right! Personally I would be amazed if that is really how they work it out, because it is just plain wrong and completely unscientific.
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Amp34 said:
Erm yeah, but large parts of the country have had very little snow (this winter and last) to go with their low amounts of rain. It's normally all to do with the fact cold weather comes from the north and east, whereas rain comes from the south and west.



Cool, you already posted that. Unfortunately for you I'm guessing that system has been used for the last 200 years so we can't just randomly change it because it doesn't fit your theory... There will most likely have been dozens of similar winters that are classed as warm over the last couple of hundred years due to one month being very warm, one month being very cold and the rest being average.

Change it for this year and you had better go back and change it for all the rest of the years since records began (probably dooable as they will have the daily records since then), in which case you'll probably find that all winter temperatures will be all over the place and we will end up in a similar situation to now... Stats are meaningless without analysis and that analysis has to be the same every time.

Interesting to note that I work with a lot of international students and we were pointing out to them that the weather in October and November was really unseasonal, much warmer and dryer than normal.
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Its not like they don't have agenda is it, the Met Office: Weather and climate change its in their name for heavens sake.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/12/20/warm-bias-how-the-met-office-mislead-the-british-public/

John Walsh, The Independent, 19 January 2010: Some climatologists hint that the Office’s problem is political; its computer model of future weather behaviour habitually feeds in government-backed assumptions about climate change that aren’t borne out by the facts. To the Met Office, the weather’s always warmer than it really is, because it’s expecting it to be, because it expects climate change to wreak its stealthy havoc. If it really has had its thumb on the scales for the last decade, I’m afraid it deserves to be shown the door.
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i would be a bit more sceptical if i were you, they have alterer motives for the whole green tax agenda but that is a whole other thread :)



warming – but in Germany and also in many other countries around the world people are currently fighting with the adversities of extreme cold. And indeed: “The year 2010 will be the coldest for ten years in Germany,” said Thomas Globig from the weather service Meteo Media talking to wetter.info . And it might even get worse: “It is quite possible that we are at the beginning of a Little Ice Age,” the meteorologist said. Even the Arctic ice could spread further to the south.

temperatures in Germany this year (8.1 degrees Celsius) were 0.2 degrees below the long term measured average of 8.3 degrees. “I fear we will end up still significantly lower by the end of the year”, said Globig. The long-term average is actually the average of all German stations from 1961 to 1990

Globig sees two main causes for the significant cooling: First, the cyclical changes in the big air currents over the Atlantic, and second, the variations in solar activity.
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http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/12/19/greenland-blows-hot-and-cold-while-europe-freezes/
 
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badcompany said:
Its not like they don't have agenda is it, the Met Office: Weather and climate change its in their name for heavens sake.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/12/20/warm-bias-how-the-met-office-mislead-the-british-public/




i would be a bit more sceptical if i were you, they have alterer motives for the whole green tax agenda but that is a whole other thread :)


http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/12/19/greenland-blows-hot-and-cold-while-europe-freezes/
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Cool... Link to a peer reviewed or proper newspaper article and I may take some notice. However linking to a blog that just so happens to have a "climategate" tab (which coincidently from a quick glance doesn't seem to have anything about the vindication of the CRU) is really not going to persuade me.

Either way you can't suggest that because two winters are colder than average that climate change (and especially AGW, which has been hijacked by the political brigade (both sides)) is not something that is happening. Just because one year is a little below average doesn't mean climate change is incorrect.

Anyway this is about snow now, I'm not about to go into discussing scientific methods and statistics, of which you don't seem to have much of a grasp of...:)

EDIT: As for scepticism I'd like to think I'm quite open minded when it comes to science (especially earth science as that is my discipline) and I'm one of the few out of my peers that doesn't whole heartedly think that we are definately causing global warming (although to be totally honest it I do err on the side of believing we probably are).
 
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We've had Christmas picture card snow lying and toppin itself up for the past few days up in Kirkcaldy, just a few inches of soft crunchy stuff and the roads are clear. It's a nice change from the horrible snow we had a week or two ago, but i doubt it'll last.
 
Think yer self lucky ya don't live were i do up on't farm ont moors above hebden bridge lol, it's -11 at this very point. the landrover and tractor wouldnt start this morning cause the diesel is like jelly, just my mums petrol suzuki jimny would go, but got our farm track cleared in the end so we could get to the main road.

heres some pictures:

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and last night when i was driving my mums jeep and kinda didn't know what i was in for haha..
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and my next door neighbour who is 5"7 lol

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Amp34 said:
EDIT: As for scepticism I'd like to think I'm quite open minded when it comes to science (especially earth science as that is my discipline) and I'm one of the few out of my peers that doesn't whole heartedly think that we are definately causing global warming (although to be totally honest it I do err on the side of believing we probably are).
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Oh this is your line of work, that explains it ;) enjoy the snow.
 
badcompany said:
Oh this is your line of work, that explains it ;) enjoy the snow.
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Actually climate isn't really my line of work (although I did do a couple of modules on it in my undergrad), in fact I'm about as far from being a earth science hippy as you can get as I'm doing my postgrad in oil exploration. :p

However I hope it means I can be reasonably objective and open minded about things like this, whilst potentially understanding the science (and scientific methods) behind it.

EDIT: Oh and IceShock, I want your snow! Swap places? You can have our pitiful 2 inches and I'll take your two foot!:D
 
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