It's too hot :(

So far really nice here, sun is out but enough air movement to make it bearable - can even do stuff unless you are directly in the sun too long.
 
This is insane...

20220709165632024_12_195_uk2mtmp.png


20220709165722891_12_219_uk2mtmp.png
 
I think the GFS often over eggs temperature when the runs are fairly far out. I think it was showing 40+ this weekend through tuesday a few runs back, they ended up at our current forecast.
 
VaderDSL said:
I think the GFS often over eggs temperature when the runs are fairly far out. I think it was showing 40+ this weekend through tuesday a few runs back, they ended up at our current forecast.
Click to expand...
The thing is it's not just GFS saying this and there are more and more runs saying this could actually happen!
 
XeNoN89 said:
The thing is it's not just GFS saying this and there are more and more runs saying this could actually happen!
Click to expand...
It's all model data, 9 days is way too far out for it to be accurate. It'll give a decent trend, i.e. it'll be dry and hot. But the actual figures are not worth looking at. As before, the GFS was forecasting 40+ degrees this weekend through Tuesday several runs back, if you had looked at it and gone, "yep, it's got a good chance of being warm and dry", then the model did a good job predicting the overall pattern, however if you saw it when it said 40+ degrees on X day, then it actually turned out to be 30 degrees.

But you never know!
 
Yes I think GFS models do indeed over estimate the forecast temps and 43 Celsius would break UK records...if sustained we would end up with people having serious trouble trying to cool themselves down and possible infrastructure problems like buckled railway lines and power grid issues. I remember in the 1990s that seeing 33 Celsius on the BBC Weather map was extreme. I hope that this is just an over estimation by the models.
 
XeNoN89 said:
The thing is it's not just GFS saying this and there are more and more runs saying this could actually happen!
Click to expand...

Several models have been pushing up towards 40 or even 40+ over the last few days but I'm not sure it'll hit that.

The GFS model hasn't a great reliability track vs the UK Met, etc. though much easier to use as a reference/interpret than the output from many of the other models.

The way the ensembles have been spiking and behaving the last few days though looks like plenty of potential for record breaking

jof6IkF.png

The way the last few days have turned out vs the graph I wouldn't be surprised to see a couple of days of extreme heat in the south east of the country mid month.

There is pretty strong agreement for around the 12-13th being very warm and around the 17th-18th being extremely hot.
 
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So question is : Will record temps be broken?

A) Yes > 40C
B) Yes <40C
C) No

I'm going to vote C, but I reckon it'll be close (1C) or equal to the record.
 
What is this heatwave everyone is going on about?

Its topped out at 18c here in Lancashire today, and its been windy - we've had no real hot weather in the north-west so far.
 
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