[MAFIA] The Thirteen Doctors

##unvote
##Vote Shamikebab

Most scum- like posting so far. There's lots of discussion going on in the thread but a flippant attitude isn't going to help anyone.

Yes, I do realise that my vote is now in some ways defending the guy who followed me in the very first vote, but this is pure coincidence, and doesn't change the current situation regarding Shamikebabs posting.
 
Lol. So just to keep track, how many posts and of what length do they need for us to avoid being described as 'lurking'?

Perhaps it's just because I've come off a very successful Mafia game but I've realised how pointless and slapdash day one is, drawing conclusions from anything posted is borderline dangerous and I think we've been wrong every day one. It also leads to circumstances like with 47 last game where it distracts the town for days and lets the mafia get a big lead.

Vote for me if you want, I'm not mafia but it'll help me prove my point :)
 
Shamikebab said:
Lol. So just to keep track, how many posts and of what length do they need for us to avoid being described as 'lurking'?
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if your not spam posting, you're lurking :D:D:D
Shamikebab said:
Perhaps it's just because I've come off a very successful Mafia game but I've realised how pointless and slapdash day one is, drawing conclusions from anything posted is borderline dangerous and I think we've been wrong every day one. It also leads to circumstances like with 47 last game where it distracts the town for days and lets the mafia get a big lead.

Vote for me if you want, I'm not mafia but it'll help me prove my point :)
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day one voting is as you say is pointless, everyone is looking to lynch and someone slips up and everything just points at who they thing has the most scum on them :D:D happened last game, i made one comment and killswitch decided i was scum and turned out i was townie. its day 2 where it all really begins after the day one period of player 1 "so whos scum?" player 2 "omg you are scum #vote player 1"
 
As I said in my previous posts, day 1 is far more important than you are making out, Shamikebab. Mafia haven't had a chance to formulate a game plan for what happens if one of them gets targeted. Furthermore, it is important to lynch on day one as it increases our odds of winning.
I have spent my time in this game so far engaging with people, trying to educate them. With my knowledge I make an obvious target, which is why I am trying to educate you all now while I still can.

All votes in the first day generate discussion. When you are voted you need to plead your case and defend yourself. If a player really thinks you are scum then it is up to them to rebuke your points. A well reasoned lynch beats a random lynch which beats no lynch.
 
And i say there is no such thing as a well reasoned Day 1 lynch. I've already said it's needed but lets not kid ourselves that it's anything other than random.

People need to defend themselves sure....how exactly? People's votes are dubious at best and down right random at worst, no defense is possible against a vote without justification.
 
Right now I trust iviv, chriscubed and Egon. Pookie and Shami are probably OK but are being a little nervous about how things work under these rules. Everyone else isn't doing enough to convince me they're not scum. Admittedly I'm a little busy today and haven't had chance to read everything thoroughly. I hope to be adding more names to those lists once I get a bit more time to study the posts.
 
chriscubed said:
I don't agree with this at all. Getting discussion flowing is pro-town. no one is being bloodthirsty and calling for whole town lynch and we're still at L-4 which is a long way to go.
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I'm not disputing that discussion is good, in fact I'm suggesting that more participation would be of benefit to us all. As for bloodthirsty, I would suggest that voting to kill someone is bloodthirsty. I also believe that picking on someone who isn't active is the wrong way to go. That's what we've always done and we've never, ever lynched a mafia member on day one around here. Why do the same thing we've done before if it never works?

Calling out lurkers is fine - in fact, it's a good idea. I want to hear more from those who are saying very little.

Shamikebab said:
Cool, here's some content:
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This post actually made me LOL at work :D
 
Shamikebab said:
And i say there is no such thing as a well reasoned Day 1 lynch. I've already said it's needed but lets not kid ourselves that it's anything other than random.

People need to defend themselves sure....how exactly? People's votes are dubious at best and down right random at worst, no defense is possible against a vote without justification.
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Watching what happens. Voting patterns. Watch where people join in on the votes. Does someone just join the bandwagons late. Is there someone who always starts pointing fingers without actually placing a vote. There are lots of things that can be picked up day 1. Of course there's more that can be learned in later days, but you can't discount day 1.
Once I'm back home I'll do a more thorough analysis of what I think has happened so far.
 
kaiowas said:
Right now I trust...
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This is the sort of post we need. Putting information out there on how you read other people's behaviour.

Pookie Bear said:
I also believe that picking on someone who isn't active is the wrong way to go. That's what we've always done and we've never, ever lynched a mafia member on day one around here. Why do the same thing we've done before if it never works?
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Because lurkers are anti-town. If someone contributes nothing on day one, you have nothing to go on on day two. On the other end of the scale, you have people who are scum hunting. That is pro-town behaviour. If at crunch time, you have a choice of pro-town behaviour, anti-town behaviour and random vote, which should we choose?

In a perfect world, you would have 13 players who are posting content and there would be no need to lynch lurkers. So you call out lurkers, force them to add content (or refuse, in some cases - draw your own conclusions).

I don't place the same importance on voting as you do, until we're at L-3 or closer - fair enough, we just don't have the same play styles.
 
Personally I think Shamikebab has the wrong approach to this. Whether that is his genuine belief, or because he is scum, I'm not so sure.

Quite simply, we've made a mess on day 1 every game so far. The discussion yesterday and today is producing far more to go on. Even if we get it wrong, we can go back and re-investigate what people have said.
 
chriscubed said:
Because lurkers are anti-town. If someone contributes nothing on day one, you have nothing to go on on day two. On the other end of the scale, you have people who are scum hunting. That is pro-town behaviour. If at crunch time, you have a choice of pro-town behaviour, anti-town behaviour and random vote, which should we choose?
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Isn't it actually much easier for mafia to take a "pro-town" stance? The odds of hitting a scum on day one are clearly not in our favour - so in effect calling for a lynch is an anti-town move? I've only played one game, so I don't know if there's game theory that contradicts that - I'm purely going on stats here.

I'll admit I'm a little gunshy - my first game proved that I am not instinctively good at this :D
 
shorttricky said:
Isn't it actually much easier for mafia to take a "pro-town" stance? The odds of hitting a scum on day one are clearly not in our favour - so in effect calling for a lynch is an anti-town move? I've only played one game, so I don't know if there's game theory that contradicts that - I'm purely going on stats here.

I'll admit I'm a little gunshy - my first game proved that I am not instinctively good at this :D
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You need to get people participating in the process so you can see the trends. Day 1 isn't going to help that much unless luck plays a part. But Day 1 and Day 2 may help identify someone and so on. Not taking active part, or just riding popular opinion is an easy way for mafia to hide.
 
How often do the mafia hide though? Other than Ghost last game (who hid from the entire game, including the night time discussions!) the mafia have always been pretty involved. This is why the 'lurker theory' is so flawed.
 
Pudney said:
You need to get people participating in the process so you can see the trends. Day 1 isn't going to help that much unless luck plays a part. But Day 1 and Day 2 may help identify someone and so on. Not taking active part, or just riding popular opinion is an easy way for mafia to hide.
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OK, so I'm totally wrong :D

I clearly need to watch more Columbo.
 
shorttricky said:
Isn't it actually much easier for mafia to take a "pro-town" stance? The odds of hitting a scum on day one are clearly not in our favour - so in effect calling for a lynch is an anti-town move? I've only played one game, so I don't know if there's game theory that contradicts that - I'm purely going on stats here.

I'll admit I'm a little gunshy - my first game proved that I am not instinctively good at this :D
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I posted pretty early in the thread on this in more detail, but no. We always want to lynch because that is a kill we control. A night kill will only ever kill townies.

The odds of us hitting a scum are 3/13 or 23%.
(actually, are there 3? I assume so but it's too much of a pain to check on my phone once I've written so much on this post here.)
Then tonight will be a night kill, and tomorrow the odds of killing scum are 3/11 or 27%. Assuming we missed the first day.

If we don't lynch today the night kill happens and tomorrow we have 3/12 or 25% to kill scum.
2 chances beats 1.
 
Shamikebab said:
How often do the mafia hide though? Other than Ghost last game (who hid from the entire game, including the night time discussions!) the mafia have always been pretty involved. This is why the 'lurker theory' is so flawed.
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This is why I'm currently highly suspicious of anyone who posts but abstains. And also why I included being involved in the wave of popular opinion :p
 
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