That "bit of luck" being a McLaren and Redbull retirement as these teams clearly have similar/ better quali pace and much better race pace. Even MW is keeping up with Seb in the races so without significant abnormal races I cant see Merc getting on the podium currently (of course with 3 weeks until the next race they will have upgrades, let alone later in the season)
This doesnt even include one of two or three mid field teams leapfrogging Merc on absolute pace either (as it were "on their day"). Merc are great in quali, thanks to the new system, but as it makes little difference in the race Im not entirely sure how much it helps as they go slowly backwards on Sundays
That's the exact idea I was alluding to, yep . It is a bit of a worry for them that they seem to fall backwards during the race, however like I say, they haven't really had a fair crack of the whip so I would say the jury is still out, especially because of the results Ferrari have had and their car certainly looks slower and less stable than the Merc.