Meanwhile in Hong Kong....

[ianh]

I think that is vastly glossing over that many of them realise the long run is going to be an increased authoritarian regime imposed on their lives and many of the freedoms they are used to disappearing.

My "glossing" was about the current protests bringing that "Ultimate Chinese Aim" to HK much faster than if there were no violent protests and China would take it's time instead.

Ultimately there is little hope of any other outcome for them short of leaving as they can't really win in the long run, China might retreat here and there along the way but they won't stop pushing towards their eventual goal - the only hope these protestors really have is that somehow the world is shocked into having to act to such an extent China is forced to be hands off for a very long time to come.

True, they're screwed TBH, but that last sentence of "the only hope these protestors really have is that somehow the world is shocked" is what I find really worrying, because that means that the Chinese Military will have rolled in, and I don't see how is that "hope" for the average HK'er who just wants to keep their head down and live a quiet life.

 

[Jimbeam3678]

.

The fact is that the US is not going to help HK and neither will anyone else, Taiwan is in a difficult spot though, i have no idea how that will unfold, i assume China will do a Crimea on it and call the US's bluff.

Are we at a flashpoint? I don't see how China would take economic ruin well without some level of revenge, I know they've been desperate to insulate themselves from the global economy, but has that been achieved?

Taiwan are having a vote early next year about to decide in essence if they want to have tighter ties with China, which according to my Taiwanese wife basically want to become part of China again.

Hot topic at the moment In Taiwan, so I think Taiwan are dictating their own future rightly or wrongly.

 

[dowie]

Taiwan are having a vote early next year about to decide in essence if they want to have tighter ties with China, which according to my Taiwanese wife basically want to become part of China again.

Sorry, not sure if English is your first language but that sentence didn't make sense. Are you saying your wife wants Taiwan to become part of China again or are you saying that she believes the majority of Taiwanese people favour closer ties or becoming part of China?

 

[Feef]

I mean...that's more or less been the case in every election since they began in 1996, each time it's "Don't vote for the KMT, they'll reunite with China!" vs "Don't vote for the DPP, they'll declare independence and China will invade!".

The truth of course usually being somewhere in the middle. Events in Hong Kong certainly aren't helping the KMT's cause though, they make the whole closer alignment with China idea a pretty tough sell.

Edit:

Sorry, not sure if English is your first language but that sentence didn't make sense. Are you saying your wife wants Taiwan to become part of China again or are you saying that she believes the majority of Taiwanese people favour closer ties or becoming part of China?

I was also unsure about that, I wondered if it might mean that the vote for "tighter ties" would effectively be about reuniting, perhaps with a missing "means" after "wife".

 

[StriderX]

My "glossing" was about the current protests bringing that "Ultimate Chinese Aim" to HK much faster than if there were no violent protests and China would take it's time instead.



True, they're screwed TBH, but that last sentence of "the only hope these protestors really have is that somehow the world is shocked" is what I find really worrying, because that means that the Chinese Military will have rolled in, and I don't see how is that "hope" for the average HK'er who just wants to keep their head down and live a quiet life.

I'd rather not waste the next two decades just so that it happens anyway, all the while China profits from Hong Kong's status, better to rip the plaster off now.

You can't have a quiet life in an authoritarian hell where your every word is potentially being recorded for the social credit system to destroy you. Complacency is the reason fascists win, how you can support people being complacent is beyond me. I'll admit that if i were in that position i would just spend the next twenty years escaping, but that is not a guarantee, so realistically these folks don't have any choice between capitulating in 2047 or raising hell today.

 

[RxR]

Given that the protesters have now been officially labelled as "terrorists", "rioters" and "enemies of the people", and the Chinese mainland legislature has just denied the HK judiciary authority to rule on HK constitutional matters...the protestors are (maybe more) likely to be shipped off to mainland reeducation camps.

However, the 'middle way' is still possible, if the ruling party decide to exercise their greater traditional intelligence.

 

[StriderX]

Given that the protesters have now been officially labelled as "terrorists", "rioters" and "enemies of the people", and the Chinese mainland legislature has just denied the HK judiciary authority to rule on HK constitutional matters...the protestors are (maybe more) likely to be shipped off to mainland reeducation camps.

Was going to happen anyway.

 

[RxR]

Was going to happen anyway.

Under behavioral model 1, certainly. Under behavioral model 2 dynamics, certainly not. Thousands of trained professional behavioral scientists and practioners around the world know the difference.

e: The HK situation is a cultural emotional intelligence test. So far, doubt has the upper hand (against both 'sides').

 

[dowie]

Long shot I know but it would be great if the HKers (and perhaps Taiwanese) were to act as a sort of poison pill for the rest of China and speed up reform there. I mean plenty more Chinese travel overseas these days (though lots are still pretty brainwashed, they equate the state to "family" and don't distinguish between their country and the government running it so view criticisms of the regime as criticism of their own identity etc..) they meet HKers etc.. at overseas universities News of the troubles in HK gets through to the mainland despite being heavily filtered etc..

 

[RxR]

I'm a professional skeptic. That's why I am certain the problem can be easily fixed (without need for poison pills, extra conflict, loss of face, etc).

e: that is, within 3 weeks or less, with 60% of it solvable within 3 days (72 hrs).

 

[dowie]

I'm a professional skeptic. That's why I am certain the problem can be easily fixed (without need for poison pills, extra conflict, loss of face, etc).

What makes you certain that the problem can be easily fixed and how do you think it will occur?

 

[Rroff]

Long shot I know but it would be great if the HKers (and perhaps Taiwanese) were to act as a sort of poison pill for the rest of China and speed up reform there. I mean plenty more Chinese travel overseas these days (though lots are still pretty brainwashed, they equate the state to "family" and don't distinguish between their country and the government running it so view criticisms of the regime as criticism of their own identity etc..) they meet HKers etc.. at overseas universities News of the troubles in HK gets through to the mainland despite being heavily filtered etc..

There is another group this reminds me of... can't quite put my finger on it.

 

[dowie]

There is another group this reminds me of... can't quite put my finger on it.

Conservative muslims and criticism of Islam?

 

[RxR]

What makes you certain that the problem can be easily fixed and how do you think it will occur?

Without going into my specialist knowledge here, in simple terms:

1. A 7 word phrase both rightly can accede to
2. Two groups, both of well-intended folk that would rather win instead
3. The methods exist, and do not depend on preconditions of trust, goodwill or hope.

 

[dowie]

Without going into my specialist knowledge here, in simple terms:

1. A 7 word phrase both rightly can accede to
2. Two groups, both of well-intended folk that would rather win instead
3. The methods exist, and do not depend on preconditions of trust, goodwill or hope.

I didn't ask you to go into your "specialist knowledge" - but you're not really adding any clarity here in "simple terms", you've just made a vague/cryptic post that added little - why not just explain what makes you certain the problem can be easily fixed and give a brief overview of how you think it will occur?

 

[RxR]

...
why not just explain what makes you certain the problem can be easily fixed and give a brief overview of how you think it will occur?

On the second half of your question, I don't place a high probability on it occurring - the odds generated by events are against both parties - and only one has the power to initiate the change. And critically, it is known that the required level of professional scientific behavioral change expertise does not formally exist as a matter of educational fact within the deciders territory.

 

[Jimbeam3678]

Sorry, not sure if English is your first language but that sentence didn't make sense. Are you saying your wife wants Taiwan to become part of China again or are you saying that she believes the majority of Taiwanese people favour closer ties or becoming part of China?

I was saying Taiwan as a country are having a vote to decide if they support a party which is basically in bed with China.

From what my wife has explained to me it’s Taiwan’s version of Brexit e.g very much split and people losing friends over it. So your original comment on how China will handle Taiwan could be irrelevant in a few months.

Also my first language is English even if it didn’t read like it, lesson learnt don’t type when you are tired.

 

[dowie]

On the second half of your question, I don't place a high probability on it occurring - the odds generated by events are against both parties - and only one has the power to initiate the change. And critically, it is known that the required level of professional scientific behavioral change expertise does not formally exist as a matter of educational fact within the deciders territory.

What are you actually referring to now? You're not being very clear - you said the problem can be easily fixed? For the sake of clarity what problem are you referring to?

 

[RxR]

What are you actually referring to now? You're not being very clear - you said the problem can be easily fixed? For the sake of clarity what problem are you referring to?

The same problem you are - the conflict between the main parties (the Chinese mainland government and protestors) in the HK dispute.

And yes, I did state the problem can be easily fixed (the conflict between the parties can be easily resolved) using advanced known (in the West) behaviour change specialist methods.

 

[dowie]

The same problem you are - the conflict between the main parties (the Chinese mainland government and protestors) in the HK dispute.

And yes, I did state the problem can be easily fixed (the conflict between the parties can be easily resolved) using advanced known (in the West) behaviour change specialist methods.

In what sense can it be easily fixed? You said you're certain it can be easily fixed yet you don't explain what you mean and/or how? You allude to some specialist area, that's fine - you can still given some explanation of what you're referring to in terms of a "fix" and some idea of how that could be achieved without needing to go to cryptic posts or start throwing in jargon unnecessarily.

Otherwise what is the purpose of your posts if they're just vague and little more than posturing?