IATF 16949 probably hinders options to be honest. The OEMs are pretty strict with suppliers and it’s hard to change stuff once signed off
New car delays.
- Thread starter zuludawn
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Exactly.
I won't name the company but one of the major players in the factory automation sector is currently quoting me 75 weeks lead time on the PLCs we use. SEVENTY FIVE WEEKS! Normally it is 2!
They aren't messing about when they refer to "Global supply chain issues". It is a wide reaching cross sector problem that isn't going away any time soon.
You can believe that to be true or not, it is my day job to make some these things and know the hoops I have to jump through and some of the limitations that are imposed from a design and packaging perspective when you want to tick that automotive checkbox.
Soldato
Why not read the full sentence? I said "cancel fewer orders in the short term, and then if sales didn't pick up then push back or cancel orders and use what they have stock piled" the key being cancel fewer orders, as you should always be aware of what the longest lead time part could be and the impact that will have if you are unable to source sufficient supply of that part.
One of the hardware manufactures I used to work with was severely impacted by the hard drive shortage in 2011/12 as they didn't think something so simple could almost cause them to grind to a halt. The problem was the car manufacturers cancelled orders they couldn't undo quickly or easily, Toyota even pointed out that they managed to do better than most after taking heed from the 2011 earthquake meaning their previously modelled JIT system wasn't fit for purpose and required re-working, which is what they did, and they had in place a business continuity plan which allowed them to call upon the agreements made with suppliers previously.
Toyota also have considerable delays on new vehicles though.
Soldato
Absolutely, its no difference to the defence or aviation sector which I work in, they just call up a different spec standard (I design RF and Microwave circuit boards). Most COTS parts are available to different temp ratings with just the end suffix being different, for more inhospitable environments of which I would expect automotive environments (heat, vibration, EMC) to be but they are still COTS parts. As I say, even in defence, the use of MIL Spec parts is virtually non existent. You just select a suitable part, derate the performance of the component so its running at 60% to 75% of its maximum capacity so its hardly stressed to give you your reliability and once you have your completed assembly you do a highly accelerated life test (HALT) to qualify the assembly/system.
So long as you arent buying shonky parts from China, most of the processes from established manufacturers are pretty good these days which has prompted the move from MIL Spec parts
Soldato
They lasted 6 months longer than anyone else, though. A knee jerk reaction to a global event, that was obviously not predicted, but huge automotive makers protecting short term losses, when they aren't going anywhere soon, maybe? But yeah Toyota are now impacted, anything else to add?
They've sold out of ID3s for the year as well! VW not doing very well...
No I was comparing it to VW Touaregs and pointing out some manufacturers are barely affected. I suspect Range Rover have made a decision to sacrifice Velars as we ordered a Range Rover Sport HSE with 360 cameras in November and its getting delivered next week. I doubt they use different cameras and chips to the Velar so perhaps they are making sure what supply they do have is used in their higher end/more profitable cars? VW cant even get a single chip for its flagship car.
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Did they, where is the proof of that? My new Toyota which I ordered over two years ago had delays.
Do I have anything else to add? Yes the delays make me happy as my new Toyota is still worth what I paid, actually it will fetch overs even though its got 7000 miles on the clock, not that relative though as no intentions to sell it.
Pretty much any car brand has a 1-2 year waiting list at present, even if supply had remained consistent demand has considerably increased during the pandemic for many things which most industries never expected.
Soldato
As has every other car that car is not unique, even cars that are consider bangers have gone up. Then they will come back down again, once they finally get back on top of the supply issues.
JLR have publicly stated that, they are prioritising high margin vehicles only.
BMW are still only 14 weeks on factory ordered X5s so not "every" manufacturer (although it does vary on models, perhaps on which country they are built - X5s built in the US)
Some cars will come back down for sure, some maybe not.
Probably a smart move for JLR.
Soldato
I dont doubt there are hoops to jump through, I probably come up to similar ones albeit in a different sector. Im saying this out of engineering interest and not as a challenge but what different processes are you talking about in terms of component choice?
That is of course true but the reasonable "what-if's?" that manufacturers would plan for have to have limitations. You can't have "Supply plan 24b - In the event of alien invasion of South Korea" for every component. It was an unprecedented event. Hence my question of, without the benefit of 20:20 hindsight, what else would you have continued to purchase? Or do you just keep buying everything to shove into your empty production plant that doesn't have the capacity to store it while racking up credit on parts you have no idea when you are A) going to use and B) see a return on?
This isn't just a story of semi-conductors. It's plaster, timber, copper pipe......
The company I work for produces items on an individual basis or very small scale batch runs and we effectively have a buyer and hardware developer permanently working on sourcing stock components or finding alternatives. This isn't high end or long lead time stuff, it's bread and butter components. It's absolutely mental at the moment.
So there can be limits on what active and passive devices you are allowed to use on silicon by a foundry, you also have to pay more for the mask set, in my area Analog RF silicon design, as an example we might have a lot of on chip cap using a finger mom structure (be careful searching that in google
) You use a very small width and spacing of tracks for fringing capacitance normally but for Auto or high voltage you have to increase that spacing which reduces the cap effectivness this means you need more area for same capacitance which depending on what you are doing can have a significant impact. On the packaging side where you can use nice tight pitch on copper pillars for example in mobile when you say automotive most packaging houses go nope and want to quadruple it, also where you could have used a number of RDL layers for reliability it is recommended to use less, of course you can pay loads more to alleviate these sort of restrictions but who does that
and unless you are buying a bajillion many companies aren't even interested.You also have to factor in supporting the part a lot longer than throw away consumer gear.
Loads of things like this get implemented and costed accordingly, for some one slapping a device on a PCB it is just a slight change to a part number.
Well I tried to persuade wifey into this as it has all the gadgets, but she said no. Gutted 
Bit of a monster for the school run, but that engine!
https://www.targafloriocars.com/used/cars/bmw/7-series/m760li-xdrive-v12-1499
Bit of a monster for the school run, but that engine!
https://www.targafloriocars.com/used/cars/bmw/7-series/m760li-xdrive-v12-1499
Soldato
Not been following supply of new ICE cars but EVs are certainly getting very supply constrained. Even Tesla has a long wait now and some others have no capacity for the rest of the year.
Well I tried to persuade wifey into this as it has all the gadgets, but she said no. Gutted
Bit of a monster for the school run, but that engine!
https://www.targafloriocars.com/used/cars/bmw/7-series/m760li-xdrive-v12-1499
So much car for 60k that! 200mph cruiser with no limiter.
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Soldato
So there can be limits on what active and passive devices you are allowed to use on silicon by a foundry, you also have to pay more for the mask set, in my area Analog RF silicon design, as an example we might have a lot of on chip cap using a finger mom structure (be careful searching that in google
On the packaging side where you can use nice tight pitch on copper pillars for example in mobile when you say automotive most packaging houses go nope and want to quadruple it, also where you could have used a number of RDL layers for reliability it is recommended to use less, of course you can pay loads more to alleviate these sort of restrictions but who does that
You also have to factor in supporting the part a lot longer than throw away consumer gear.
Loads of things like this get implemented and costed accordingly, for some one slapping a device on a PCB it is just a slight change to a part number.
Ah apologies, you are talking about custom MMICs presumably for radar sensing? I thought you were talking about getting high reliability versions of off the shelf parts