NVIDIA 4000 Series

[CAT-THE-FIFTH]

On the flipside if they sell them too 'cheap' they'll be no one lining up to buy the 5000 series when software developers haven't, developed. If games in 2yrs time are no more demanding than games now then you could argue consumers will not need a more powerful GPU. Someone has to blink first, and as games currently stand I see very little use case for either the 4080 or 4090.

I think you misread what I said. Nvidia's pricing means that there is a stagnation in price/performance meaning lower end models will be similar performance(or a bit better) in RT performance for similar money.

Hence there is a stagnation,and games developers won't care outside the odd sponsored game. The RTX3060 is probably the most popular Ampere dGPU on Steam now.

It's no point if the RTX4050 costs the same and offers 20% better RT performance? This is why games are not pushing effects anymore - the mainstream/entry level enthusiast dGPUs are getting progressively worse and worse on average compared to the top end. Outside the odd blip,it seems to be very inconsistent in improvements now. In the past dGPUs such as the 6600GT,8800GT,etc offered a decent performance uplift compared to the previous generation. It gave a target for developers to aim for.

The 8800GT was one of the reasons why many people could actually run Crysis - if the pricing and performance per tier had stayed the same as the last generation,far less people would have played Crysis!

It's all about numbers - the vast majority of developers will only target fancy effects,if they know there is a big install base. If not they are not going to hamper their sales. Its why tessellation,which first appeared on ATI dGPUs in 2001,took nearly a decade to be commonly used.

 

[arknor]

The RTX3060 is probably the most popular Ampere dGPU on Steam now.

do esnt mean they are the people buying games on release day, I'd imagine they are the kinda people who only buy during sales so probably deemed irrelevant.


Game devs will surely know exactly who is buying the games at full price isa giving 80% of their profits

 

[CAT-THE-FIFTH]

do esnt mean they are the people buying games on release day, I'd imagine they are the kinda people who only buy during sales so probably deemed irrelevant.


Game devs will surely know exactly who is buying the games at full price isa giving 80% of their profits

But it also means that is the level of RT performance they need to take into consideration(together with the consoles) to target for any updates to the games.

The reality is ATM,most RT effects are just tacked on Ultra preset effects and most of the game is rasterised. Until the mainstream dGPUs have a decent bump over two generations it is going to stay that way.

Just because Nvidia might sponsor a few odd games here or there to push RT effects,does not mean most game developers will care. They will just add a few here and there as a marketing tickbox.

Tesellation existed for nearly a decade,until it started to be used sparingly in games,and it took for a few years after Fermi launched for it to be more liberally used. Even Crysis didn't sell as much as it should have,despite the 8800GT,as it was too demanding. In fact if it had been delayed until the HD4000/GTX200 series era,I suspect it would have sold better because of the much bigger installed base of performant dGPUs.

The mainstream dGPUs and consoles are always the limiting factor here.

Even with Cyberpunk 2077 and Witcher 3 there were graphical downgrades. Some of it might have been down to consoles,but also IMHO also due to the current state of mainstream dGPUs. Even companies which want to sell pretty games can't just survive on the sales of uber enthusiasts alone. They still need to make the games run OK on less than £1000 dGPUs.

 

[Harlequin]

Quite shocked that CP 2077 needs DLSS at 4k to get even close to 60 fps with RT enabled oO

 

[Darujhistan]

But it also means that is the level of RT performance they need to take into consideration(together with the consoles) to target for any updates to the games.

The reality is ATM,most RT effects are just tacked on Ultra preset effects and most of the game is rasterised. Until the mainstream dGPUs have a decent bump over two generations it is going to stay that way.

Just because Nvidia might sponsor a few odd games here or there to push RT effects,does not mean most game developers will care. They will just add a few here and there as a marketing tickbox.

Tesellation existed for nearly a decade,until it started to be used sparingly in games,and it took for a few years after Fermi launched for it to be more liberally used. Even Crysis didn't sell as much as it should have,despite the 8800GT,as it was too demanding. In fact if it had been delayed until the HD4000/GTX200 series era,I suspect it would have sold better because of the much bigger installed base of performant dGPUs.

The mainstream dGPUs and consoles are always the limiting factor here.

Even with Cyberpunk 2077 and Witcher 3 there were graphical downgrades. Some of it might have been down to consoles,but also IMHO also due to the current state of mainstream dGPUs. Even companies which want to sell pretty games can't just survive on the sales of uber enthusiasts alone. They still need to make the games run OK on less than £1000 dGPUs.

RT is what is has always been - simply a way to sell more ridiculously overpriced GPU's.

I think people can finally see thast now, it is not about gaming, or technology it is simply about making more money. Devs don't care, the vast majority of gamers don't care, in fact I'll bet 95% of gamers don't know what it is, and if they did they would not care either. This forum is terribly unrepresentative of gamers.

A gimmick to force up prices and increase FOMO, and it worked!

 

[CAT-THE-FIFTH]

RT is what is has always been - simply a way to sell more ridiculously overpriced GPU's.

I think people can finally see thast now, it is not about gaming, or technology it is simply about making more money. Devs don't care, the vast majority of gamers don't care, in fact I'll bet 95% of gamers don't know what it is, and if they did they would not care either. This forum is terribly unrepresentative of gamers.

A gimmick to force up prices and increase FOMO, and it worked!

If Nvidia was genuinely interested in pushing RT,the AD103 based RTX4080 16GB would have been a sub £600 RTX4070 16GB(and it would have still pushed up 70 series pricing another £100). You would have gotten a 50% to 60% performance uplift at 1080p and qHD in rasterised performance over an RTX3070/RTX3070TI and nearly a doubling in RT performance. But instead of using the much bigger than normal increase gained from going to Samsung 8NM to TSMC 4N,they decided overinflated miners prices were the way to go. That way they can sell you a hobbled AD106(which would be more like a GA107) as an RTX4060/RTX4060TI.

Nvidia used to be a company which did do this,ie,the 8800GT but they are more concerned about what the big "investment" houses which own their shares care now. This is a process repeated everywhere now - partly why we even have this energy crisis too.

 

[Quartz]

Hence there is a stagnation,and games developers won't care outside the odd sponsored game. The RTX3060 is probably the most popular Ampere dGPU on Steam now.

A quick check on the Steam Hardware Survey confirms that the RTX xx50, xx60, and RX x600 GPUs are usually the most popular. But permit me to offer a different perspective: rather than percentages, look at actual numbers. The RTX 3080 has a Steam usage rate of 1.82%. That doesn't sound a lot but there are 120 million monthly active players, and 1.82% of that is about 2.2 million users. 2.2 million active gamers is a large target audience. Or rather, target market. And RTX 3080 Ti users number 0.77% - nearly a million. And 3090 & 3090 Ti users total about a million. So that's 4 million+ top end users.

 

[Sargatanas2511]

Like it or not, people will buy it regardless, it could have been $1500 and the 4090 $2000 and they would still sell. There are people that will always buy regardless of anything.

 

[Journey]

The RTX 3080 has a Steam usage rate of 1.82%.

And the the GTX 1060/1650 is nearly 13% in total. So for every one RTX 3080 level card they sell there is almost 7 of each lower end ~£150-200 card sold. Oh that is nearly 16m users if the figures you give are correct, and that is just two of the low end cards.

 

[Joxeon]

do esnt mean they are the people buying games on release day, I'd imagine they are the kinda people who only buy during sales so probably deemed irrelevant.


Game devs will surely know exactly who is buying the games at full price isa giving 80% of their profits.

Its the people that are sitting on the fence that they need to convince, not the ones with more money than sense.

 

[CAT-THE-FIFTH]

A quick check on the Steam Hardware Survey confirms that the RTX xx50, xx60, and RX x600 GPUs are usually the most popular. But permit me to offer a different perspective: rather than percentages, look at actual numbers. The RTX 3080 has a Steam usage rate of 1.82%. That doesn't sound a lot but there are 120 million monthly active players, and 1.82% of that is about 2.2 million users. 2.2 million active gamers is a large target audience. Or rather, target market. And RTX 3080 Ti users number 0.77% - nearly a million. And 3090 & 3090 Ti users total about a million. So that's 4 million+ top end users.

That is still a relatively small number out of the whole install base. Now look at the price of the RTX4080 - it basically costs more than the RTX3080 and RTX3080TI. So out of that user base on Steam,3 million wouldn't buy one,otherwise they would have bought an RTX3090 series dGPU.

Also,a lot of people were getting stimulus checks,etc during lockdown. People couldn't travel,inflation and energy costs were low,etc. People were stuck at home - so many probably spent more than normal during an exceptionally out of the ordinary period. That "free" money was doing nothing. Many people and businesses brought computer purchases forward,especially due to Work From Home. I helped a lot of people with new build suggestions as a result.

But moving forward,people are going back to normal habits. That "free" money will be spend on going out,meals,holidays,etc. Plus there is no stimulus cheques,inflation is high,interest rates have gone up,etc. Hence as this drags on,I expect people to scrutinise consumer spending more and more over the next year or two.

This is what you see is happening - massive revenue losses for Nvidia,AMD and Intel. Many other companies are reporting much lower sales in other areas.

Even from my own experience of loads of my mates in real life,gaming mates,etc the best hardware I know some have is a RTX3080 or RX6800,but there are several times the number who don't have anything better than a £400 class dGPU. I have never myself had a single dGPU(even adjusted for inflation) over £400. The other issue is also how Steam works WRT to the hardware survey - its an opt in survey. I would argue people who are more interested in hardware are more likely to agree to run it.

 

[gpuerrilla]

A quick check on the Steam Hardware Survey confirms that the RTX xx50, xx60, and RX x600 GPUs are usually the most popular. But permit me to offer a different perspective: rather than percentages, look at actual numbers. The RTX 3080 has a Steam usage rate of 1.82%. That doesn't sound a lot but there are 120 million monthly active players, and 1.82% of that is about 2.2 million users. 2.2 million active gamers is a large target audience. Or rather, target market. And RTX 3080 Ti users number 0.77% - nearly a million. And 3090 & 3090 Ti users total about a million. So that's 4 million+ top end users.

What? Surely we need 40 series cards now to make use of the extra frame and dlss3?

But moving forward,people are going back to normal habits. That "free" money will be spend on going out,meals,holidays,etc. Plus there is no stimulus cheques,inflation is high,interest rates have gone up,etc. Hence as this drags on,I expect people to scrutinise consumer spending more and more over the next year or two.

Correct, if you think about all these millions on ampere cards are suddenly going to want to upgrade them already, the steam hardware survey suggests otherwise. According to it the 1060 is aging like an elf in LOTR. We also never covered the rise in energy cost and although a few on here mock it, case and room temperatures are another consideration to manage.

 

[EastCoastHandle]

Why is Nv hiding cod results? I want to see 4080 cod results.

 

[Quartz]

And the the GTX 1060/1650 is nearly 13% in total. So for every one RTX 3080 level card they sell there is almost 7 of each lower end ~£150-200 card sold. Oh that is nearly 16m users if the figures you give are correct, and that is just two of the low end cards.

And? There are still 4 million odd high-end users out there. And that is the point I'm making.

That is still a relatively small number out of the whole install base.

But it's a large number in itself. And the number of gamers at that performance level will only increase with future generations of GPUs.

 

[CAT-THE-FIFTH]

And? There are still 4 million odd high-end users out there. And that is the point I'm making.



But it's a large number in itself. And the number of gamers at that performance level will only increase with future generations of GPUs.

It won't though at the current level of pricing. As Gamersnexus Steve said you are paying more for the increase in performance,so you are seeing a stagnation in performance.

This is what people who only buy higher end dGPUs need to apreciate. It stagnates the performance of the vast majority of dGPUs bought by most gamers. Even the most popular COD games break 20 million sales.

That is also assuming the RT performance on an RTX3080 is great - it still has problems. This is why you need to use DLSS.

So either way,the RTX4080 and RTX4090 won't do anything to change adoption of RT unless the whole range gets a price cut.

Even going by the tiers you suggested the RTX4080 and RTX4090 pricing only is relevant to 1 million of the 120 million users on Steam because the RTX3080 started at £650 and the RTX3080TI was a sub £1000 dGPU.

If it sticks,that means the dGPUs under it,won't be a great improvement in performance,ie,a stagnation. That will be because a cut down RTX4070TI will cost the same as an RTX3080TI,and an even more cut down RTX4070(or it might even just use a smaller AD104) will be priced at the RTX3080 price.

The improvements will be relatively small. Plus with so many people bringing forward purchases during the pandemic,lack of stimulus cheques(and similar schemes),the world opening up and inflation/energy prices,I can see the amount of people wanting to spend lots on dGPUs perhaps being affected more and more as time progresses. Also the effect of large increases in interest rates will start to have an effect over the next 12 months. Loan repayments will cost much more.

It's already started. Nvidia missed revenue estimates by $1.4 billion! AMD missed estimates too,and so did Intel.Zen4 isn't selling well because its too expensive.

Nvidia margins have dropped over 20 points to just above AMD,because its quite clear they are deep discounting dGPUs to PC companies but not to us DIY builders.

Ultimately the only way is to cut prices for DIY buyers too.

 

[arknor]

It's already started. Nvidia missed revenue estimates by $1.4 billion! AMD missed estimates too,and so did Intel.Zen4 isn't selling well because its too expensive.

That's mainly because crypto died, NFTs died and most companies are cutting workers, especially office type jobs.


Gamers will be a relatively small portion of their revenue apart from maybe AMD

4090 ain't even designed with gamers in mind, we are second class citizens

 

[Quartz]

It won't though at the current level of pricing.

The figures beg to differ.

 

[Harlequin]

Why is Nv hiding cod results? I want to see 4080 cod results.

Nvidia RTX 4080 Graphics Card Review - Page 14

The RTX 4090 launched a little over a month ago and it felt somewhat like a bittersweet victory. Not only did we see a HUGE and frankly unparalleled jump in performance, but we also saw the same thing…

www.eteknix.com

 

[CAT-THE-FIFTH]

That's mainly because crypto died, NFTs died and most companies are cutting workers, especially office type jobs.


Gamers will be a relatively small portion of their revenue apart from maybe AMD

Gamers were still nearly half their revenue IIRC,before the pandemic. Gaming revenues crashed by 1/3 year on year and 44% compared to the previous quarter.

Both AMD and Intel have been hit in sales too,but Nvidia exclusively does dGPUs.

It's not just crypto but the reality people were willing to push forward purchases due to the pandemic,and spent a bit more. Stimulus cheques,Furlough,etc and people being trapped at home and crypto allowed Nvidia to sell more than normal at a higher price.

Nvidia margins have crashed by one third,yet DIY consumer prices have not crashed.

That means they are offloading dGPUs at lower prices to companies building laptops and desktops. This is why I have seen so many prebuilt systems,where it is still cheaper to buy an Nvidia dGPU than build it from parts. I have no clue why people are trying to justify the higher pricing.

So if they want to gain more revenue,they need to cut their DIY parts in price,to stimulate more sales.

 

[RavenXXX2]

Tech Jesus has already summarized this product perfectly