I initially got a few bits for free from regular crates, then used that money for gamescon crates. I got lucky, got about £40 stuff. I took a chance, bought some more crates with real money sat in paypal, about £20 worth. I then sold regular crates from gaming to get the money for keys, from that I got £180 worth of cosmetic items.
Since then i've watched the gamescon stuff like a hawk, noticed a dip last week, bought another 20 crates with real money, they're currently almost 170% of what I paid.
Bottom line, I put in £55/60 of real money over a few months, I currently have £300 of cosmetics and £80 of crates.
I'm such a fool