Poll: Poll: UK General Election 2017 - Mk II

Who will you vote for?


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Plus they always underestimate the Conservative vote.
538 have a detailed analysis of the the UK polling that touches on this. Recently this has happened but long term it is not a statistically significant effect.

Moreover, all polling companies have made new changes to try and mitigate that so there is absolutely no reason to believe the conservatives will do much better than the poll this time. The polls with a >=10% Tory lead have 7-8% added on them just to mitigate this exact issue. Otherwise models have tried to improved the statistical sampling and reduce bias.
 
As always said, turnout of younger <30 voters could sway things, they don't often bother in the same percentages as older groups, but it's not easy to guarantee who will and who wont bother this time.

Interesting bit of MSM
 
If the Tories increase their majority, Corbyn needs to go TBH. It'll be a pretty clear sign that his critics are right; that he is incapable of winning an election. He's had the best opportunities any leader of the opposition could hope for during an election.
 
In the slightest < 1% chance that labour got in with some sort of coalition.... I hope that whoever they go into coalition with would look at the voting system again (I doubt labour would want to change this themselves). We really need a new system.
We all know tories wont change it.... the system benefits them
 
If the Tories increase their majority, Corbyn needs to go TBH. It'll be a pretty clear sign that his critics are right; that he is incapable of winning an election. He's had the best opportunities any leader of the opposition could hope for during an election.

not really... if it was an even game from the start then maybe... hes had a bit of luck this past week or two.... but that doesnt help when hes had 2+ years of crap thrown at him by the media. It has already sunk into peoples heads... whether what was said is true or not
 
Life would become uniform and regulated, individuality and difference suppressed - better only if you are a machine.

I'd be wary of experts and Labour's costing - the face value numbers might add up - but there is a whole lot of wishful thinking behind where they come from - saying X billion will come from Y when even a child knows that if you actually go after that potential source of revenue you'd be lucky to actually physically grasp even a half of X.

Do you not think those economic experts considered the validity and viability of the income sources?
 
If the Tories increase their majority, Corbyn needs to go TBH. It'll be a pretty clear sign that his critics are right; that he is incapable of winning an election. He's had the best opportunities any leader of the opposition could hope for during an election.

I thought he'd already one two recent elections?
 
I thought he'd already one two recent elections?

You know what I meant.

I'm not trying to be unfair to Mr Corbyn; just highlighting the obvious. Personally, I like the guy. But I'm struggling to see how his chances get better than this.

The negative press isn't going to go away. But what is likely, is that the Conservative Party will be much less complacent at the next general election. They'll be more prepared if Mr Corbyn is still leader at the next General Election.
 
As a random point the following ECONOMIC EXPERTS SUPPORT LABOURS COSTED MANIFESTO:

Dr Adotey Bing-Pappoe, lecturer in economics, Alan Freeman (personal capacity), Alfredo Saad Filho, Professor of Political Economy, SOAS University of London, Andrew Cumbers, Professor of Regional Political Economy, University of Glasgow, Andrew Simms, author of The New Economics, co-director New Weather Institute, Andy Ross FAcSS, Visiting Professor, Birkbeck University of London , Andy Kilmister, Department of Accounting, Finance and Economics, Oxford Brookes University, Ann Pettifor, Director of PRIME Economics (Policy Research in Macroeconomics), Dr Antonio Andreoni (PhD Cambridge), Senior Lecturer in Economics, SOAS University of London, Anwar Shaikh, Professor, New School for Social Research, USA, Arturo Hermann, Senior research fellow, Italian National Institute of Statistics, Rome, Italy, Professor Ben Fine, Department of Economics, SOAS University of London, Robert Rowthorn, Emeritus Professor of Economics, University of Cambridge., Bruce Cronin, Professor of Economic Sociology, Director of Research, Director of the Centre for Business Network Analysis, University of Greenwich, Dr Bruno Bonizzi, Lecturer in Political Economy, University of Winchester, Carlos Oya, Reader in Development Studies, SOAS University of London, Carolina Alves, PhD Economics, Carolyn Jones, Director, Institute of Employment Rights, Cem Oyvat, Lecturer, University of Greenwich, Christopher Cramer, Professor of the Political Economy of Development, SOAS University of London, Ciaran Driver FAcSS, Professor of Economics, SOAS University of London, Professor Colin Haslam, Professor of Accounting and Finance, Queen Mary University of London, Costas Lapavitsas, Professor of Economics, SOAS University of London, Cyrus Bina, Distinguished Research Professor of Economics, University of Minnesota, USA, Dr Dan O’Neill, Lecturer in Ecological Economics, University of Leeds, Daniela Gabor, Professor of Economics and Macro-Finance, University of the West of England, Daniele Archibugi, Professor, Birkbeck College, Professor Danny Dorling, University of Oxford, Writer and Academic, Dean Baker, Co-Director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research, Washington, DC, Dr Deborah Johnston Pro-Director (Learning and Teaching) SOAS (University of London), Diego Sánchez-Ancochea, Associate Professor in Political Economy, Director, Latin American Centre, University of Oxford, Dr Dimitris P. Sotiropoulos, The Open University Business School, Elisa Van Waeyenberge, Lecturer of Economics, SOAS University of London, Dr Emanuele Lobina, Public Services International Research Unit, University of Greenwich, Dr Faiza Shaheen, Economist (in a personal capacity), Frances Stewart, Professor of Development Economics and Director, Centre for Research on Inequality, Human Security and Ethnicity, University of Oxford, Gary Dymski, Professor of Applied Economics, Leeds University Business School, Geoff Harcourt, Honorary Professor, UNSW Australia, Gerald Epstein, Co-Director, Political Economy Research Institute, and Department of Economics, University of Massachusetts Amherst, USA, Dr Giorgos Galanis, Lecturer in Economics, Goldsmiths University, Gregor Semieniuk, Lecturer in Economics, SOAS University of London, Guglielmo Forges Davanzati, Associate professor of Political Economy, University of Salento, Italy, Dr Guy Standing FAcSS, Professorial Research Associate, SOAS University of London, Ha-Joon Chang, University of Cambridge, Hannah Bargawi, Lecturer in Economics, SOAS University of London, and Research Partner, Centre for Development Policy and Research, Dr Hassan Hakimian, Reader in Economics, SOAS University of London, Professor Dr Heiner Flassbeck, former Chief Economist of UNCTAD, Geneva, Heikki Patomäki, Professor of World Politics, University of Helsinki, Howard M. Wachtel, Professor Emeritus of Economics, American University, Washington, DC, USA, Howard Reed, Director, Landman Economics, Dr Hugh Goodacre, Senior Lecturer in Economics, University of Westminster, Teaching Fellow, University College London, Hugo Radice, University of Leeds., Hulya Dagdeviren, Professor of Economic Development, University of Hertfordshire, Ilhan Dögüs, Department of Socioeconomics, University of Hamburg, Germany, James K. Galbraith, Professor of Government, University of Texas, USA, Jan Toporowski, Professor of Economics and Finance, SOAS University of London, Dr Jane Lethbridge, Public Services International Research Unit, University of Greenwich, Jeanette Findlay, Senior Lecturer in Economics, University of Glasglow, Jeff Faux, Founder & former Director, Economic Policy Institute, Washington D C, Dr Jeff Powell, Senior Lecturer in Economics, University of Greenwich, Dr Jeff Tan, Economist, Aga Khan University in the UK, Jeremy Smith, co-director, PRIME Economics (Policy Research in Macroeconomics), Dr Jo Michell, Senior Lecturer in Economics, UWE Bristol, Professor John Grahl, Economics Department, Middlesex University, John Palmer, former Political Director of the European Policy Centre, Dr Johnna Montgomerie, Senior Lecturer in Economics, Deputy Director of the Political Economy Research Centre, Goldsmiths University of London, Jonathan Dawson, Coordinator of Economics, Schumacher College, Professor Jonathan Michie, Professor of Innovation & Knowledge Exchange, University of Oxford , Dr Jonathan Perraton, Senior Lecturer in Economics, University of Sheffield, Jorge Buzaglo, Associate Professor of Economics, University of Stockholm, Sweden, Dr Julian Wells, Principal Lecturer of Economics, Kingston University, Kate Bayliss, Research Fellow, Economics Department, SOAS University of London, Professor Kate Pickett, University of York Champion for Research on Justice & Equality, Dr Kevin Deane, Senior Lecturer in International Development, University of Northampton (personal capacty), Dr Kitty Stewart, Associate Professor of Social Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, Klaus Nielsen, Professor of Institutional Economics, Birkbeck University of London, László Andor, Associate Professor, Corvinus University, Hungary, Leslie Huckfield, Yunus Centre for Social Business & Health, Glasgow Caledonian University, Malcolm Sawyer, Emeritus Professor of Economics, University of Leeds, Marco Veronese Passarella, Economics Division, Leeds University Business School, Maria Nikolaidi, Senior Lecturer in Economics, University of Greenwich, Dr Mario Seccareccia, Full Professor, Department of Economics, University of Ottawa, Canada, Dr Martin Watts, Emeritus Professor of Economics, The University of Newcastle, Massoud Karshenas, Professor of Economics, SOAS University of London, Dr Matteo Rizzo, Senior Lecturer, Department of Economics, SOAS University of London, Mehmet Ugur, Professor of Economics and Institutions, University of Greenwich Business School, Michael Roberts, financial economist and author of The Long Depression, Professor Mushtaq Khan, Department of Economics, SOAS, University of London, Professor Ozlem Onaran, Director of Greenwich Political Economy Research Centre, University of Greenwich, Pallavi Roy, Lecturer in International Economics, SOAS, University of London, Paulo dos Santos, Assistant Professor of Economic, New School for Social Research, USA, Paul Mason, economics writer, Prem Sikka, Emeritus Professor of Accounting, University of Essex, Dr Pritam Singh, Professor of Economics, Oxford Brookes University, Radhika Desai, Professor, Department of Political Studies, University of Manitoba, USA, Richard McIntyre, Professor, Chair, Department of Economics, University of Rhode Island, USA, Richard Murphy, Professor of Practice in International Political Economy at City University of London and Director of Tax Research LLP, Richard Parker, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, USA, Richard Wilkinson, Emeritus Professor of Social Epidemiology, University of Nottingham, Dr Robert Calvert Jump, Lecturer in Economics, Kingston University, Robert Neild, Professor Emeritus of Economics, University of Cambridge, Robert Pollin, Distinguished Professor of Economics and Co-Director, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts Amherst, USA, Roberto Veneziani, Queen Mary University of London, Susan Himmelweit, Emeritus Professor of Economics, Open University, Dr Sara Gorgoni, Senior Lecturer in Economics, University of Greenwich, Dr Sara Maioli, Lecturer in Economics, Newcastle University, Dr Satoshi Miyamura, Lecturer in the Economy of Japan, SOAS University of London, Shawky Arif, The University of Northampton, Simon Wren-Lewis, Professor of Economic Policy, Oxford University, Professor Steve Keen, Department of Economics, Kingston University, Professor Engelbert Stockhammer, Kingston University, Simon Mohun, Emeritus Professor of Political Economy, Queen Mary University of London, Dr Sunil Mitra Kumar, Lecturer in Economics, King’s College London, Susan Newman, Senior Lecturer of Economics, University of West England, Dr Susan Pashkoff, Economist, Dr Suzanne J Konzelmann, Director, Postgraduate Programmes in Corporate Governance and Business Ethics, Director, London Centre for Corporate Governance and Ethics, Co-Executive Editor, Cambridge Journal of Economics, Tom Palley, Former Chief Economist, US-China Economic and Security Review Commission, Tomás Rotta, Lecturer in Economics, University of Greenwich, Trevor Evans, Emeritus Professor of Economics, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Germany, Will Davies, Reader in Political Economy, Goldsmiths, University of London, Dr William Van Lear, Economics Professor, Belmont Abbey College, USA, Yanis Varoufakis, Former Minister of Finance, Greece, Yannis Dafermos, Senior Lecturer in Economics, University of the West of England, José Gabriel Palma, University of Cambridge, Yulia Yurchenko, University of Greenwhich, Laurie Macfarlane, Economics Editor, Open Democracy, Meghnad Desai, London School of Economics, Clive Lawson, University of Cambridge, Professor Lawrence King, University of Cambridge


Oh great you gone for a rather classically fallacious argument.... the argument from authority...........

I'm not going to bother scrutinising the whole list so lets just start with number 1.....

Dr Adotey Bing-Pappoe, lecturer in economics


So what do we get from just the first page of a Google search..... (any bold bits my emphasis)


Dr Adotey Bing-Pappoe will argue that there are important advances in technology that are making a cooperative and sharing economy easier to achieve. There is also a growing awareness of the potential of cooperatives as a way of economic organising, and a rising tide of cooperative formation around the world (USA, UK, Greece, Cuba, Argentina, Venezuela, Brazil, Uruguay and India)

'Cooperative and sharing economy' - is that a roundabout way of saying Communism? Because we all know what a roaring success that's been in the past. We also know how well this potential in cooperatives is working in Counties like Venezuela (thousands starving) and Argentina/ Greece (Economic basket cases)

'quota for women in public service according to AU policy (all countries)'

Yep nothing says meritocracy more than a bit of forced social engineering in the modern Cultural Marxist plan of things....... I do hope this will include refuse workers/ grave diggers/ road workers etc ? (and not just a few of the well paid top jobs)


Oh but wait he's a lecturer at the prestigious University of Greenwich (/sarcasm) .... which comes in 93rd out of the 129 Universities UK Universities in 2017.....

Yep you've totally convinced me.... just from the first person on that list that I should vote Labour and I'm totally convinced that you haven't just reposted a list of a bunch of Marxist sympathising 'academics' (yes I know the link is for the US but a similar pattern is observable in the UK academia especially in the 'social sciences' like economics) because academia has never had a strong contingent of communist/Marxist sympathisers in the past with quite a modern resurgence......

And as a bonus point we all know that 'economists' are great and predicting the future and pretty much all of them didn't miss one of the biggest crashes of recent time....
 
As always said, turnout of younger <30 voters could sway things, they don't often bother in the same percentages as older groups, but it's not easy to guarantee who will and who wont bother this time.

Interesting bit of MSM

I find Akala to be one of the most divisive 'social commentators' in the media, he's like the BLM version of Nick Griffin. Any endorsement of Corbyn from him is a pretty big reason not to vote Labour.
 
I find Akala to be one of the most divisive 'social commentators' in the media, he's like the BLM version of Nick Griffin. Any endorsement of Corbyn from him is a pretty big reason not to vote Labour.

I'm just guessing (going out on a limb) that you were not seriously considering voting Labour in any case?
 
Actually it is worth scrutinizing the whole list since there are some very well established and regarded economists in it.

Well done on picking a couple of outliers in the many.

I went for the first one.... if you were going to make a list of names and suggest I should follow their advice would you be so incompetent as to allow such a weak example for your case to lead? (yes I know the list is alphabetical based on first names - but you could choose to list in another way if you wished to convince me)

So which 'experts' from the list do you think I should rely on in deciding who to vote for so that I may look at their background?
 
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