Raptor Lake Leaks + Intel 4 developments

[g67575]

It looks possible based on a July 2021 article, which shows some leaked info from Intel regarding a shared Sata controller for Alder Lake and 'Raptor Lake'. Link here:
https://hothardware.com/news/intel-...-lake-support-for-incoming-600-series-chipset

My only doubt about this Intel leak, is that the 700 series chipsets (that would presumably release alongside Raptor Lake CPUs) might just use the same SATA controller as the 600 series, as the leak doesn't confirm anything else, like if current boards will support Raptor Lake.

Since nothing has been confirmed regarding Intel's 13th CPU generation, I think it's possible that Intel might use a different fabrication process for Alder Lake's successor. 10nm is something of a dead end, as Intel did not plan to implement EUV lithography on this process.

When we see the temps of the 12900K (reaching 90 degrees at stock settings, with decent air coolers), it might be reasonable to conclude that they may've already hit the limit of what is possible with Intel's 10nm technology (and why Intel didn't opt for additional large cores for the 12th gen). There's also no indication from Intel that they can improve 10nm, much beyond the current version used in Alder Lake (named Intel 7).

Between July to December 2022, Intel is apparently planning to start using their own 7nm EUV process, confusingly named as 'Intel 4'. Here is the roadmap for their fabrication process schedule, according to an Anandtech article:
https://images.anandtech.com/doci/16823/AnandTechRoadmaps3.png

Full article here:
https://www.anandtech.com/show/1682...nm-3nm-20a-18a-packaging-foundry-emib-foveros

There's an older article here, that states that Intel's 7nm CPUs will be delayed until "late 2022, or early 2023", due to poor yields, according to previous Intel CEO, Bob Swan. Link here:
https://uk.pcmag.com/news-analysis/127899/intel-sorry-but-our-7nm-chips-will-be-delayed-to-2022-2023

According to Intel, Meteor Lake is the consumer CPU generation that will use the 7nm EUV process (Intel 4), with Granite Rapids being the server counterpart. Source here:
https://cdn.mos.cms.futurecdn.net/tinp8P8vFbRbJ3nDeaQiPE-970-80.jpg.webp

According to a cheeky leaked slide, apparently from Huawei, server processor generations such as Sapphire Rapids (10nm counterpart to Alder Lake) and Granite Rapids (7nm EUV) were planned to ship in 2021 and 2022 respectively, but I'm guessing this schedule has slipped a bit, since Sapphire Rapids hasn't been released (but should be launched in early 2022). Link here:
https://cdn.mos.cms.futurecdn.net/9dMbRBSJcaJMUUxnx9Bboi-970-80.png

There's also a Tweet from Intel that describes Meteor Lake, as "a breakthrough 2023 client processor".

This makes me wonder if 'Raptor Lake' will even exist at all, since Intel may be able to release Meteor Lake instead as the 13th generation, in late 2022 / the 1st half of 2023. Intel has named Meteor Lake in official slides, but has never mentioned Raptor Lake CPUs officially, isn't that strange considering that according to some, it would follow Alder Lake?

Finally, following 'Taping out' the design, Intel have already built a working Meteor Lake prototype in Q3 2021, according to Techspot:
https://www.techspot.com/news/91906-intel-powers-first-14th-gen-meteor-lake-cpu.html

Meteor Lake CPUs will have a chiplet / tiled design, FYI.

 

[g67575]

At the moment, there's no real proof that Intel is even considering Raptor Lake CPUs, it's not mentioned on roadmaps or any official slides. Perhaps it would be worthwhile if they could improve their 10nm process further, but I'm not sure if they can.

Raptor Lake might just be smoke and mirrors from Intel, or youtubers like MLID.

I think they would only release another 10nm CPU series (probably just a refresh), if something goes wrong with 7nm EUV / Meteor Lake. It's possible even though they have a working prototype of Meteor Lake, that the yields will be poor. But, it seems to be going well overall. My money would be on Meteor Lake being the 13th generation, in early 2023.

 

[g67575]

Might be that it is a slightly refined 12th gen, the 13th gen will benefit from improve ddr5 support, better scheduling etc, so not hard to see how they can gain 10% or more through this alone, even if the chips don't change much.

They did actually launch the 11th gen to follow the 10th knowing it was utter and complete *****.
No reason they won't launch a 13th gen if its 10% better.
There will be a product, and Id expect it 13900 equivalent to be better than the 12900, as for the chips below that who knows, the 12700 and 12600 are excellent chips for what thye do, with faster and better memory support they'll be excellent.

I think slightly upgraded Alder Lake CPUs might be possible, perhaps with the main benefit being support of higher frequency DDR5 modules, but that would require new motherboards too (at they are currently limited to ~6400mhz). They'd likely still be part of the 12th gen...

 

[g67575]

I think the Raptor Lake rumours might've been more credible if they had been backed up by official statements from Intel, regarding further improvements to their current 10nm technology (Intel 7). Normally, they are eager to discuss improvements to transistor density or power efficiency, but I think they've already gone as far as they can with it.

 

[g67575]

Raptor Lake is due out Q2 2022, hopefully we have some fresh leaks soon!

As it's a new architecture, I wonder if they'll remove the DDR4 memory controller, freeing up die space for more cores, cache, or larger cores?

I imagine Raptor Lake will compete vs Zen3 refresh (vcache), as they're both looking to launch within a few months of each other, though either could get delayed I guess.

It doesn't make sense, we've heard from more Intel about their first prototype for Meteor Lake CPUs, than Raptor Lake.

I'll concede that there could be a small improvement compared to Alder Lake if a new generation was released, but I don't think it will feature any significant changes, or anything that will boost performance.

Intel's 10nm development appears to have halted in 2021:
https://www.extremetech.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/Intel-Slide.jpg

It looks like they are moving onto 7nm EUV now. Unless Raptor Lake is some bizarre 7nm EUV backport, to Intel's existing 10nm.

 

[g67575]

Is there any sign that Intel is developing their 10nm process ('Intel 7') further though?

If so, I think that would make another 10nm generation far more likely. The impression I get though, is that Intel has struggled enough with preparing 10nm for desktop PCs and servers, they have already spent more than 3 years developing it, since Cannon Lake was announced in 2018 (at very low yield rates).

EUV lithography should help Intel to improve CPU performance, but as far as I know, it's not possible on Intel's 10nm process.

6/7nm EUV is possible though, and products have already used this tech.

The big clue for me, is the lack of a new server product in between Sapphire Rapids (10nm) and Granite Rapids (7nm EUV) on the leaked Huawei roadmap, see link here:
https://cdn.mos.cms.futurecdn.net/9dMbRBSJcaJMUUxnx9Bboi-970-80.png

No improved 10nm server product = no 10nm Raptor Lake generation for consumers.

 

[g67575]

@jigger - They don't have to do that much for now actually. I think Alder Lake will hold up well, vs Zen3 CPUs that basically just have more cache. Zen 4 might be releasing quite late next year too.

Can you try to stay on topic for once lol, there's plenty of other threads to do some Intel bashing, which is not the point of this thread.

 

[g67575]

You do know that a design can improve on a current process, it doesn't have to have a better process to become a better product.

Yes, but if they could improve the design, why didn't Intel do this already for the 12900K, to improve load temperatures? It runs at 90 degrees at stock settings.

I'm not sure just adding for cache to this design would be a particularly good idea, or more cores. I'm sure this was the reason they opted for no more than 8 large cores too, due to excess temperatures on the 12900K.

Secondly, improvements to architecture itself tends to be very limited, without improving the underlying fabrication technology. Look at 14nm / Skylake processors. Then there was was a single Rocket Lake based series, on 14nm.

For Ryzen the 1st gen was 14nm. 2nd gen, 12nm. 3rd gen, 7nm. The Ryzen 5000 series was the exception to the rule, and carried on using 7nm.

 

[g67575]

As for will Intel release another chip before 2023? Yes, the share holders will demand it.

I think you may have a point there, it all depends how quickly Intel can release Meteor Lake. The first prototype is done, so that's good news, but we have no idea about yields and Intel's 7nm EUV production capacity. Perhaps if they announce it for the end of 2022, but release in early 2023, that would be sufficient.

But, I'm unenthusiastic about a refresh of Alder Lake, it would be weird to release the refresh 13th generation in the same year that CPUs from the 12th gen are still being released. It looks like many more Alder Lake CPUs are still to be released, including Alder Lake mobile CPUs, which I assume would be the 'Alder Lake-M' die'.

 

[g67575]

Intel has already released 2 generations on 10nm lol. Ice Lake and Tiger Lake. Before that, there was Cannon Lake, which barely saw the light of day, due to very poor yields.

They managed to finally get it to desktop standard with Alder Lake, but they seem to want to move on now.

Here is their current fabrication process plan:
https://www.anandtech.com/show/1682...nm-3nm-20a-18a-packaging-foundry-emib-foveros

A more dated and vague plan here:
https://www.extremetech.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/Intel-Slide.jpg

Intel 4 (7nm EUV), an EUV process is apparently due for late 2022, or the 1st half of 2023.

Then, they plan to move onto Intel 3 (another 7nm EUV process predicted to offer "18% performance per watt gain"), in late 2023.

 

[g67575]

@jigger - Please rant more.

It's a shame that the quantity of your posts isn't a reflection of their quality

 

[g67575]

Nah, Alder Lake is already pretty good, but the 12900K runs much too hot, just like the 11900K, both need a super duper cooler.

People don't seem to be paying much attention to why Intel decided to go with the 8 large core + 4/8 weaker cores design, they wouldn't of done this without a very good reason.

Who needs more than an Alder Lake CPU in 2021/2022? 12700 (non K) ftw.

 

[g67575]

Intel only needs a better generation of CPUs whenever Zen 4 launches. AMD haven't said precisely when that will be, but that is what will be on Intel's list of concerns.

 

[g67575]

So what, they exceeded the transistor density target of 100 million transistors per millimetre, I don't think they ever intended to go much beyond that on 10nm.

They are already planning to double this on 7nm EUV, according to Intel's CEO " [7nm] will feature a density that is 2x that of Intel's 10-nanometer node". Link here:
https://en.wikichip.org/wiki/7_nm_lithography_process#P1276

 

[g67575]

@Journey - Look at the supposedly reliable sources that people have for information on Raptor Lake, and come to your own conclusion. I will wait for an announcement from Intel, maybe they will announce a small improvement on Alder Lake for 2022, but only Intel knows anything about this, no one else.

Intel have clearly announced plans to develop Meteor Lake, ready for a 2023 launch, but nothing for some reason on a possible 10nm successor to Alder Lake.

 

[g67575]

Intel don’t have anything to compete with Zen3 never mind Zen4

I would've thought it was obvious to everyone by now that Alder Lake has beaten Zen 3, especially in single core performance. AMD will claw back some performance with the extra cache models.

Even the lower end models of Alder Lake are looking pretty good vs Zen 3. They need to get on and release the rest of Alder Lake, including lower end and mobile parts, to fully benefit.

I fully expect you to keep arguing with me about this though, tbh.

 

[g67575]

Hahaha, people keep stating Raptor Lake as if it's a definite thing that is in development / exists.

Imagine if someone in the rumour mill said there's no indication that Raptor Lake is being developed, they'd have little to talk about and that would be that, maybe get a few hundred views on Youtube.

That's why they don't say that, and have to invent sources.

I guess a common opinion on the Internet, is that if enough people say something, it must be true. That is one reason why rumours can spread like wildfire, and become the assumed truth.

 

[g67575]

Well Fab 42 was announced in 2017, intended for the production of Intel's 7nm chips:
https://www.anandtech.com/show/11112/intel-to-equip-fab-42-for-7-nm

According to Wikichip, Intel's 7nm process for CPUs, called P1276 "will enter risk production at the end of 2022 and ramp in 2023...Intel announced a $7B investment in Arizona's Fab 42 which will eventually produce chips on a 7 nm process". Link here:
https://en.wikichip.org/wiki/7_nm_lithography_process#P1276

On the subject of Zen 4 desktop CPUs, although AMD's roadmap indicates a 2022 release, it's entirely possible that they be announced in late 2022, with products released in early 2023.

In the last decade, AMD hasn't launched 2 CPU generations in a single year, and the Ryzen 6000 series (Zen 3 + additional cache) is coming out in Q1 2022, to compete with Alder Lake.

 

[g67575]

Can you stop posting the same old stuff please lol. Anyone can post unofficial roadmaps which take up half the screen.

 

[g67575]

Well, (more or less) nothing in 2022 if Zen 4 isn't released until early 2023. Otherwise, your guess is as good as mine.