Scrypt mining gold rush finally ends

[Kaapstad]

Demand for R9 R290X cards dials down

We got confirmation from a few big e-tailers that the Scrypt gold rush is over, sooner than many expected.

The altcoin craze started late last year, as cryptocurrency lovers started mining huge amounts of litecoin, dogecoin and other Scrypt-based cryptocurrencies. It took off toward the end of the year and now in early April we can confirm that the mania is coming to an end.

The unexpected spike in demand caused periodic shortages of Tahiti and Hawaii based Radeons, which were by far the most popular GPUs for Scrypt mining. As demand outstripped supply, we saw some price gauging, too.


The rise and fall of GPU mining

Cryptocurrency mining turned out to be very profitable for some individuals and hardware makers. We saw the same thing with bitcoin a couple of years ago, but it was much smaller at the time. Since then bitcoin miners migrated to powerful ASICs, rendering GPU mining rigs obsolete and uncompetitive.

Bitcoin uses the SHA-256 algorithm and there are already a number of different ASICs designed to hash much faster than any GPU would - and to use much less power in the process. Scrypt was designed specifically to be ASIC-resistant, so many bitcoin miners whose old GPU mining rigs were mothballed following the transition to ASICs simply chose to reuse their old hardware to mine Scrypt altcoins, such as litecoin and the meme-inspired dogecoin.


Many others joined the craze and bought heaps of Tahiti cards. They then moved to Hawaii-based R9 290 and R9 290X cards, causing shortages of both. Retailers and distributors told us that some people were buying them by the dozen, which is not usually the case as most gamers and enthusiasts buy one or two cards. After all these things don't come cheap and a Crossfire rig with two Hawaii cards is more than enough for practically any gamer.

However, it turns out that ASIC-proof Scrypt algorithm can be cracked using more elaborate ASICs. The first Scrypt ASICs are coming to market in a matter of months. KnCMiner and Alpha Technology appear to be leading the way. For example, KnCMiner is currently taking preorders for its $9,995 Titan miner, which promises to deliver 250GH/s while using less than 1000W. The R9 290X maxes out at about 1GH/s. As for power consumption - do the math.

As a result most miners have stopped buying Radeons.


Possible fallout for AMD and AIBs

Nvidia was concerned by the mining craze as it allowed AMD to sell more R290X and 290 cards than expected. When the cards were designed and introduced nobody was expecting such a spike in demand, as mining was always a relatively small phenomenon given AMD's overall volume. Once people figured out that they could buy a heap of Radeons that would practically pay for themselves in a matter of weeks, it all went wrong.

You'd think that AMD would be laughing all the way to the bank, but it's not that simple.

We were informed of a potential problem with these cards as our industry sources raised concerns that some of them might start dying and RMA earlier than they should, which might be bad news for AMD and its add-in-board partners.

When AMD and Nvidia design a high-end graphics card, they don’t expect it to run under full load for more than a few hours a day. Even diehard gamers have to eat, sleep and work, so they can't run their cards under full load for more than six to eight hours a day. Even professional cards aren't designed to run at full load all the time.

However, miner cards were running at the highest possible load 24/7 and in many cases they were overclocked. Our educated guess and some basic mathematics are telling us that these cards might be meeting their maker much sooner than their owners expect.


Watch out for second-hand mining gear

RMA (Return Merchandise Authorization) probably won’t apply to some of these cards, as manufacturers usually do not accept abused cards that have marks of overheating or other forms of abuse. But once again it's not that simple.

That dark side of GPU mining will probably become evident in the second hand market. Tens of thousands of Tahiti- and Hawaii-based cards will soon be rendered obsolete in their GPU mining role. Miners will have no use for them and if someone happens to have ten or twenty pricey cards that can't make money, chances are they will unload them on eBay or somewhere else. After months of running under full load and a hefty overclock, these bargain cards may prove to be lemons, so please watch out for them.

If you see a seller who is unloading more than one or two high-end Radeons, chances are the cards were indeed used in Scrypt mining rigs. They will probably go cheap, but even if they are still covered by warranties, it is probably best to stay away from them and avoid possible RMA issues.

Basically if you are in the market for used Radeon on the cheap, buy it from a gamer, not a miner.

Scrypt GPU mining will soon be a thing of the past. It remains to be seen whether a different ASIC-proof mining craze will happen again, but for the time being the worst is over.

http://www.fudzilla.com/home/item/34405-scrypt-mining-gold-rush-finally-ends

 

[snips86x]

RMA (Return Merchandise Authorization) probably won’t apply to some of these cards, as manufacturers usually do not accept abused cards that have marks of overheating or other forms of abuse. But once again it's not that simple.

That dark side of GPU mining will probably become evident in the second hand market. Tens of thousands of Tahiti- and Hawaii-based cards will soon be rendered obsolete in their GPU mining role. Miners will have no use for them and if someone happens to have ten or twenty pricey cards that can't make money, chances are they will unload them on eBay or somewhere else. After months of running under full load and a hefty overclock, these bargain cards may prove to be lemons, so please watch out for them.

If you see a seller who is unloading more than one or two high-end Radeons, chances are the cards were indeed used in Scrypt mining rigs. They will probably go cheap, but even if they are still covered by warranties, it is probably best to stay away from them and avoid possible RMA issues.

Basically if you are in the market for used Radeon on the cheap, buy it from a gamer, not a miner.

Scrypt GPU mining will soon be a thing of the past. It remains to be seen whether a different ASIC-proof mining craze will happen again, but for the time being the worst is over.

Something which I'd already pointed out. This was bound to happen!

 

[JamesM]

They need to get their facts right really.

Most miners will actually undervolt their cards to keep temps down and more often than not cards run better at lower, stock clocks than overclocking the nuts off them.

My 290s have been running for a few months, 24/7 with fans on 95% aswell as desk fans blowing on them and temps have never (note I say never) gone above 70 degrees.

 

[snips86x]

That doesn't stop the vendors refusing returns though.

 

[mmj_uk]

If the cards aren't designed to run GPGPU (which was a major selling point) for long periods then it's bad design, it's not the first time AMD have clocked their CPU/GPU's way too aggressively though. Intel and NVidia both tend to clock their parts much more conservatively compared to AMD presumably for long term reliability reasons.

 

[JamesM]

That doesn't stop the vendors refusing returns though.

I don't see why?

AMD/Nvidia produce graphics cards to be used, i've never seen a sticker on the side of the box before saying "This card should only be used a maximum of 5 hours a day"

I'd much rather buy a 2nd hand card that has been run 24/7 at lower volts and stock clocks than a gaming card which has been overclocked to the moon and back with increased volts to boot.

Bare in mind also that most miners run their cards in open framed cases so they would run cooler anyway than sitting inside an enclosed case.

 

[Kaapstad]

My 290s have been running for a few months, 24/7 with fans on 95% aswell as desk fans blowing on them and temps have never (note I say never) gone above 70 degrees.

I think you have just made their point for them.

I only benched mine on air for a few hours with the fans at maximum and they did not give me the impression that they would last long flat out.

 

[JamesM]

I think you have just made their point for them.

I only benched mine on air for a few hours with the fans at maximum and they did not give me the impression that they would last long flat out.

Why not?

So you'd rather a fan run at slower speeds and the card be hotter? Not sure I agree with that tbh

 

[Sin_Chase]

Why not?

So you'd rather a fan run at slower speeds and the card be hotter? Not sure I agree with that tbh

Does not matter if you undervolt, over cool or otherwise. Nobody cares what your temps are/were - You have mileage.

Your cards have been used FAR more in that period of time than any regular user would have used theirs. Statistically you are closer to failure and your cards, rightly so - are worth less.

 

[Kaapstad]

Why not?

So you'd rather a fan run at slower speeds and the card be hotter? Not sure I agree with that tbh

No, I put waterblocks on mine.

What I am saying is the reference cooler running flat out 24/7 does not give me or my ears the impression that it will last long.

 

[Lex1970]

It doesn't matter what you do with the Graphics Card they all have a running time shelf life as mentioned by the manufacturers I can't remember what this is of the top of my head 50,000 hours approx.

 

[triss]

Does not matter if you undervolt, over cool or otherwise. Nobody cares what your temps are/were - You have mileage.

Your cards have been used FAR more in that period of time than any regular user would have used theirs. Statistically you are closer to failure and your cards, rightly so - are worth less.

+1 one to this ,, eg a car with 50,0000 miles on the clock driven slowly, or one with say 10,000 miles thats had a few hoons thrash it for 10 min stints

 

[JamesM]

Does not matter if you undervolt, over cool or otherwise. Nobody cares what your temps are/were - You have mileage.

Your cards have been used FAR more in that period of time than any regular user would have used theirs. Statistically you are closer to failure and your cards, rightly so - are worth less.

So what your saying is that all graphics cards only have x amount of hours of use before they just stop working?

I'd be more worried about constant power cycling, hot cold hot cold etc

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=183279.0

But... GPUs aren't cars?

 

[Overlag]

Does not matter if you undervolt, over cool or otherwise. Nobody cares what your temps are/were - You have mileage.

Your cards have been used FAR more in that period of time than any regular user would have used theirs. Statistically you are closer to failure and your cards, rightly so - are worth less.

heat kills silicon, some gamers will be running at 90+ c in a closed case while they game, then when they sit on FB or whatever the card will drop back into the 30s. These wild swings of temps do more damage than constantly running at 70c.

People have been mining with CPU's for like 15 years, and with GPU's for about 10, i dont think we've had a problem before? All my CPU's that run seti 25/7 for 2-3 years still work today, as does my Nvida cards that run some number crunching for 2+ years. Cryptocoin mining is no different.

 

[snips86x]

So what your saying is that all graphics cards only have x amount of hours of use before they just stop working?

I'd be more worried about constant power cycling, hot cold hot cold etc

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=183279.0

But... GPUs aren't cars?

^^ +1

There is a massive difference in design and usage!

 

[tom_e]

No, I put waterblocks on mine.

What I am saying is the reference cooler running flat out 24/7 does not give me or my ears the impression that it will last long.

So you're basing your opinion on the fact that the stock cooler sounds a bit rough?

 

[Sin_Chase]

So what your saying is that all graphics cards only have x amount of hours of use before they just stop working?

The component parts will have a MTBF yes.

At the end of the day, argue all you want. If I have a choice between a Cryto ragged GPU and one that was used for regular gaming I know which one I would choose.

If you want to sell me your crypto GPU then it better well be bloody cheap.

Saying temps is the only thing that matters and all other factors are irrelevant to the value of a card is pure balls.

heat kills silicon, some gamers will be running at 90+ c in a closed case while they game, then when they sit on FB or whatever the card will drop back into the 30s. These wild swings of temps do more damage than constantly running at 70c..

I'm sure this makes crypto GPU miners sleep better at night. But consider this - Your supposed heat "temp swings" is exactly what the design brief of a GPU is built around and EXACTLY what the typical usage scenario entails, NOT static constant temperatures.

 

[Overlag]

Are you really going to be using a 280x in 10 years time?

 

[Kaapstad]

So you're basing your opinion on the fact that the stock cooler sounds a bit rough?

Those coolers were never designed to run 24/7 @95% for months on end.

Even the most dedicated AMD user can not game for that long and endure that much noise.

 

[tom_e]

Those coolers were never designed to run 24/7 @95% for months on end.

Even the most dedicated AMD user can not game for that long and endure that much noise.

Indeed, but the stock cooler breaking and having to be replaced <> bin time for the card.