SNP to break up Britian?

[Biohazard]

You envisage?

Yes, and it's certainly what I'll be arguing for.

Sounds like a credible plan you are all voting for! Seriously, how can you vote in favour of something where there is no credible idea on how you are actually going to pay for stuff, other than we might stick with GBP, (The UK will still give us bailouts though! Won't they?) or we may join the Euro (Only problem is all the sane Scots don't want that, nor does the EU after bailing out Greece and Cyprus.) Or we'll print a Scottish quid when we can prove to the world its worth something in the next decade or two. (Can we still have a bailout?)

We are going to stick with GBP in the mean time, but we don't have to. I suspect it's to make it seem less of a risk, although we will have to deviate from Sterling in the long term.

Do you envisage getting the last 30 years of the oil tax revenue also?

No, but there have been debt calculations made that include past oil revenues. It would leave Scotland with around £50billion in debt, with about £1.5trillion in assets.

 

[Biohazard]

So do you want to be independent or not?

Lets say in 5 years the UK hits a bit of a growth boom and there is high pressure on the inflation rate and one of the Scottish banks gets in trouble and needs a few dozen billion printing to stop it collapsing, or vice versa?

What happens then? 8 years ago this stuff with have been magical mystical fairy stories, but we don't have to look far to see that it is not anymore.

It just seems like a money grab with the backup of a UK taxpayer bailout to me. Independence indeed.

Five years is long enough to prove Scotland's fiscal and economic might, it is unlikely that the quite comparable Scots-UK economy would have such tensions so soon. Nor is it likely the UK is going to encounter exception growth under current policy.

Scotland is faring better than the UK comparatively now, I don't see why that wouldn't be the case when we both macro and micro-economic control tailored to the movements of the Scottish, rather than UK, economy.

Independence isn't isolationism, but independence will bring about the advent of the Scots pound again one way or another. Quite simply, Scottish growth could end up being an issue for an otherwise depressed rUK economic zone.

 

[Biohazard]

It's not luck, its the sort of situation that can and does occur when you have no control over your monetary policy. It's one of the problems with the Eurozone - the correct monetary policy for Germany is not the same as the correct policy for say Spain, but because there is only one central bank there is only one policy decision.

Likewise, under current arrangements, what's good for London and parts of England in monetary policy don't automatically suit elsewhere.

The same would happen if Scotland used Sterling - they'd have no choice but to use English monetary policy which might be tailored towards specific English economy issues or circumstances.

No different to now. At least with independence, energy rich people rich Scotland would be able to prove itself as a nation of equals and would certainly be able to float a Scots pound against its assets.

 

[kitch9]

Yes, and it's certainly what I'll be arguing for.



We are going to stick with GBP in the mean time, but we don't have to. I suspect it's to make it seem less of a risk, although we will have to deviate from Sterling in the long term.



No, but there have been debt calculations made that include past oil revenues. It would leave Scotland with around £50billion in debt, with about £1.5trillion in assets.

Why do you have to argue for anything, why isn't it already spelt out and clear, this stuff is you know, uhm, a little bit important. Maybe.?

Why are you voting for something where there is no fixed long term plan other than we'll wing it and see, hopefully someone will help us after we've stuck two fingers up at them?

Did the debt calculations include the extra government spending per capita the Scots have had for the last few decades? Serious cloud cuckoo land stuff this referendum, but there's a chance the cuckoo might win!

Just to point out, the Bank of Scotland would not exist if not for the UK taxpayer and we'd be all stuck in a deep depression if it had sunk.... Who pays for that if it happens again in an independent Scotland?

Do SNP plan to set their tax levels higher, lower or the same as the UK?

When the Oil runs out in 30 years or so will there be a referendum to rejoin because all I keep seeing is vague plans based on oil revenue which will be volatile as hell.

 

[semi-pro waster]

There is a belief that AS is planning on retirement after the ordeal one way or another. Obviously if he wins, I would except him to be part of the transition stage, but I still think judging our competence based on him alone is folly.

Also it based on your feelings, which I disagree wth, both ends of that argument suck.

I'd ask you to point out where I've judged the competence of the entire Scottish political system but it would be futile because I've not done so, although I did note that I wasn't sure the SNP would transition well but they're not the only political party in Scotland. I initially queried whether Alex Salmond is the man to lead an independent Scotland (if it happens) but if he's retiring then it's a moot point anyway.

Dare I say that the civil service is quite another thing from party leadership, and thus national leadership.

I just struggle to accept your opinion on this, if he isn't good enough to lead an independent nation (ignoring valid comparisons to call me Dave) then who in Scottish politics is semi?

I think I'm beginning to appreciate that both you and aln disagree with me on this issue...

As for who is suitable, I'm afraid I've not got a name in mind. Before I'd want to suggest anyone I'd have to do some research and thinking on the issue, it may be that a good choice might not a politician currently in the Scottish Parliament but is currently representing a Scottish constituency in Westminster.

If he isn't capable, the most capable politician on these islands, who is?

You seem to be assuming that ability in one role means that the person must be capable at another role. I don't believe that's always the case, maybe it applies here and maybe it doesn't but just because you don't agree with it as an opinion doesn't mean that it ceases to be valid or worth consideration.

Agreed.

On that basis no one could lead an independent Scotland by mere virtue of no one having experience of it, yet plenty of inexperienced people swing through the doors of No 10 & 11.

It's just another false obstacle. It's fine for the UK, obviously not for Scotland. There is a lot of this in the so called debate.

That's not the point I've made, in fact I've specifically said I'd take ability over experience, but if it suits you to present it like that then crack on.

//edit I probably shouldn't bother here, it's not something we're going to agree on even as to whether it is worth considering or not.

 

[Biohazard]

Why do you have to argue for anything, why isn't it already spelt out and clear, this stuff is you know, uhm, a little bit important. Maybe.?

Some of my views deviate with Government policy on this at the present moment. White papers are still due, but it's already been announced that Scotland's intentions would be to retain Sterling. There has been no stated intention of a Scots pound as of yet, but much discussion over it. This is why I would, in the advent of Scots independence, argue for a floatation sooner rather than later.

Why are you voting for something where there is no fixed long term plan other than we'll wing it and see, hopefully someone will help us after we've stuck two fingers up at them?

I will be voting on a set of proposals, a framework, fixed long term plans come from elected Governments. The general direction will be proposed, it would be an analysis and voice on that before we had our first election manifestos setting out defined visions and options.

Why do you feel we would be telling anyone to **** off if we decided to be responsible for ourselves? Don't you think that's a little bit too much of an emotional response?

Did the debt calculations include the extra government spending per capita the Scots have had for the last few decades? Serious cloud cuckoo land stuff this referendum, but there's a chance the cuckoo might win!

Opinions like this further the impetus for Scots fiscal freedom, you do realise this?

Scotland has long contributed to the UK, unfortunately that is maligned so that a myth of dependency can be placed there instead of the reality.

Just to point out, the Bank of Scotland would not exist if not for the UK taxpayer and we'd be all stuck in a deep depression if it had sunk.... Who pays for that if it happens again in an independent Scotland?

HBoS, RBS and the other Scottish banks provided much money for centuries. Nor was it a Scottish phenomenon, and it's perfectly rational to assume that Scotland would be as well placed as any other small nation in dealing with the fallout of the Anglo-American capitalist crash.

Do SNP plan to set their tax levels higher, lower or the same as the UK?

The SNP see them as being broadly similar, at least in the immediate future, as any upstart cost will be offset by structural savings.

When the Oil runs out in 30 years or so will there be a referendum to rejoin because all I keep seeing is vague plans based on oil revenue which will be volatile as hell.

North Sea oil will continue to be economically viable for the next 50-100 years if the private investment and company statements are anything to go by. Fossil fuels are only part of Scotland's wealth of energy, and economic sectors. Oil will be volatile, as it has been in the past, that is not beyond the ability of Scotland to navigate. Particularly as a boom is starting to emerge and be predicted by everyone bar the OBR.

 

[Biohazard]

I think I'm beginning to appreciate that both you and aln disagree with me on this issue...

As for who is suitable, I'm afraid I've not got a name in mind. Before I'd want to suggest anyone I'd have to do some research and thinking on the issue, it may be that a good choice might not a politician currently in the Scottish Parliament but is currently representing a Scottish constituency in Westminster.

I wouldn't dismiss it as a possibility, but why is that your first stated inclination?

Do you think Westminster attracts better caliber or, provides better experience?

What about someone who has been an MP, and an MSP? Alex Salmond fits that bill oddly enough.

You seem to be assuming that ability in one role means that the person must be capable at another role. I don't believe that's always the case, maybe it applies here and maybe it doesn't but just because you don't agree with it as an opinion doesn't mean that it ceases to be valid or worth consideration.

I don't disagree with you, I just don't see how there are no viable runners at the moment. I could cite several, subjectively of course.

That's not the point I've made, in fact I've specifically said I'd take ability over experience, but if it suits you to present it like that then crack on.

//edit I probably shouldn't bother here, it's not something we're going to agree on even as to whether it is worth considering or not.

But it's almost what you're saying, maybe I've made assumptions but I can't help feel that its old party allegiances that's making you take this sort of unconfident line with the prospects of Scotland being able to get hold of, post election I may add, a good leader.

It's hard to get a good grasps on your thoughts when it's normally relatively non committal, as you attack a position but are restrained in providing alternatives. It seems to happen more the older we get, and it can only lead me to make these sorts of assumptions.

 

[[TW]Fox]

I'm not sure I understand where this North Sea oil boom is supposed to be coming from?

Has somebody latched on to an oil bulls $150 price prediction and assumed it's a certainty or something?

 

[Superficial]

I'm not sure I understand where this North Sea oil boom is supposed to be coming from?

Has somebody latched on to an oil bulls $150 price prediction and assumed it's a certainty or something?

there has been record investment which is expected to come to fruition in the next few years.

imho the OBR is being prudent in under playing this because it's an unknown in many ways.

1) oil prices in general for the next few years.
2) the fact that the USA will be a net exporter of oil inside of 2 years due to fracking etc (this is massive and has not been seen since the 60's) - this will massivly effect and keep oil prices down.

3) Chinas economy - it's costing more year on year to make things in china - making fuel costs etc more of a factor as there is less benefit.

Also it's becoming common knowledge that china is creating a housing bubble (you've seen the empty towns/cities i imagine) - that construction was done purely to artificially inflate their growth figures.

point being that china and the USA are what keeps oil prices high.

4) fracking technology in general - e.g. England is sitting on massive gas reserves right now but fracking is new and we are not setup for it.

general rule of thumb is that if you have/had substantial coal deposits you probably have shale gas reserves.

 

[Biohazard]

I'm not sure I understand where this North Sea oil boom is supposed to be coming from?

Has somebody latched on to an oil bulls $150 price prediction and assumed it's a certainty or something?

$120 average iirc. OBR was the lowest estimate, but as it turns out it's useless at predicting anything anyway.

The boom is an investment boom, unprecedented amounts of money and commitment has come forth during the recession notwithstanding the technological advancements, revision of reserves, and new fields becoming economical.

Confidence is riding high on North Sea Oil.

 

[Defiant306]

Has there been any good figures on West coast of Scotland reserves yet? I had heard that they were talking about large amounts yet to be tapped.

 

[sports_brah]

I think it's a shame that Scottish people may want out, but it's hardly a surprise.

Personally I think that both sides will lose out, with the way the world economies are going, fracturing yourself doesn't help economically.

Not to mention that it would raise tensions between the places, especially if there were times of severe economic woes.


Purely my opinion.

 

[[TW]Fox]

Confidence is riding high on North Sea Oil.

And when it turns out to have been much exagerated it'll presumably be post 2014 and therefore too late to worry about it anyway

 

[Raumarik]

Has there been any good figures on West coast of Scotland reserves yet? I had heard that they were talking about large amounts yet to be tapped.

I thought a vast majority of it was in Irish waters, or at least NI waters - so IF Scotland goes, it'll have no claim to those as they'll be UKs waters still.

 

[Stretch]

This debate really hasn't moved on from a couple of years ago. And neither have people's opinions.

 

[Biohazard]

Has there been any good figures on West coast of Scotland reserves yet? I had heard that they were talking about large amounts yet to be tapped.

Scottish oil and natural gas will last for well over one hundred years

Let's dispel once and for all the myth that Scottish oil and natural gas reserves are declining and will run out for good in another forty years.

The Scottish North Sea has been 'pumping' out oil and natural gas for around forty years. The current projection is that there is around forty years of oil and natural gas reserves remaining in the Scottish North Sea, worth around £1 trillion in associated revenues.

ENEGI OIL has developed an innovative, unmanned, oil production buoy system, which will transform the economics of a host of undeveloped discoveries in the Scottish North Sea, and could be used effectively in marginal and end of life fields to extend the life of these fields considerably. Extraction technology like this one could well extend significantly the life of the Scottish North Sea for another ten or twenty years (well beyond the forty years forecasted limit), giving a total oil and natural gas production life for the Scottish North Sea of close on one hundred years since the time extraction began.

Then, we have the massive Scottish North Atlantic sector oil and natural gas fields, off Scotland`s west coast, which is predicted to contain two or three times the amount of oil and natural gas as the Scottish North Sea sector. The Scottish 'Atlantic Frontier' for oil and natural gas goes way out beyond Rockall. London has earmarked over 2500 licensing blocks for sale in the Scottish North Atlantic sector.

Assuming oil and natural gas extraction rates in the Scottish North Atlantic sector will be similar to the Scottish North Sea, then it will take a very long time indeed to empty the Scottish North Atlantic sector of oil and natural gas. If it takes around 100 years to deplete the Scottish North Sea of oil and natural gas, and the Scottish North Atlantic sector is two or three times larger in oil and natural gas reserves, then work out the maths for yourself. It`s mind boggling in terms of sector life span, reserves and revenue.

Finally, we have Scottish mainland oil and natural gas reserves – a well kept secret – the oil and natural gas (not including methane) reserves right under Scottish feet.

Many years ago I read a report from an eminent Professor of Oil Economics who stated that the Scottish mainland oil and natural gas reserves were as large as (or more than) all of the Scottish North Sea reserves before extraction began in that sector. Assuming that report is correct, and I have no reason to doubt its integrity, then we have over 100 years of oil and natural gas right below us in Scotland.

The income from what remains in the Scottish North Sea, all of the Scottish North Atlantic sector, and all the Scottish mainland oil and natural gas, will come to trillions and trillions of pounds. This does not include the thousands of years of Scottish onshore and offshore coal-bed methane gas reserves.

We are talking about a lot of years, a lot of oil and natural gas, and a lot of revenues remaining. The Scottish oil and gas patient is far from dead and is, in fact, in very rude health. An independent Scotland could not only restructure its economy and create a Sovereign Scottish Oil Fund, but also achieve one of the most egalitarian and caring societies in the world.

Do the media and politicians in other oil producing countries moan and whine about their oil declining and its price volatility? Of course they don't. They get on with it and enjoy their oil revenues, and some invest the revenues wisely for posterity.

Hand wringing about Scottish oil and natural gas declining is the equivalent of winning millions on the Lottery Jackpot and moaning that it is declining after spending the first pound or that the volatility of the foreign exchange rate when you travel or invest abroad, decreases your spending power in some cases. It's all the more ironic when somebody stole your winning ticket.

Do NOT listen to the Unionist scaremongers – there is no 'sunset' on Scottish oil and gas – more like 'sunrise'. This vast wealth is only one revenue stream and Scotland is blessed with many more. Scotland is a very capable and very wealthy country.

Don't take my word for it – check out the asset data for yourself. Scotland is literally floating in oil and gas – the birth-right of every man, woman, and child in Scotland. Why on earth therefore, would anyone in their right mind, choose to give away this birth-right? A `NO` vote in 2014 will indeed do just that and continue to give away this super-massive Scottish wealth to London.

In years to come, when your children and grandchildren are old enough to ask you what happened to their birth-right, what will your reply be?

As President Roosevelt once said, "Do not tell me that it is impossible".

BP and partners announce $500m Clair field appraisal

A consortium of oil companies is to invest more than $500m (£330m) in an appraisal drilling programme which could lead to further development of a giant Atlantic field.

The BP-led consortium said drilling had already started on the first of five wells planned over the next two years at Clair, west of Shetland.

Up to 12 wells could be drilled, depending on initial results.

The news came as the UK government unveiled a new oil and gas strategy.

BP's partners in the appraisal drilling programme are Shell, ConocoPhillips and Chevron.

It is the latest in a series of announcements, aimed at transforming the Atlantic's role as an oil-producing region.

Clair is already known as a "monster" field, holding eight billion barrels of oil.

However, it has been technically difficult to bring ashore.

Although the field was discovered more than 35 years ago, production did not start until 2005.

Last year, BP announced a further huge expansion.

The company and its partners hope the appraisal programme will lead to a third phase, taking production well beyond 2050.

New oil would continue to be pumped by pipeline to Shetland.

BP North Sea regional president Trevor Garlick said: "This is a major milestone and a further big commitment to the west of Shetland by BP and its co-venturers.

"If successful, the appraisal programme could pave the way for a third phase of development at Clair - this is now a real possibility."

Analysts believe that Clair - along with other developments in the area - could lead to the Atlantic overtaking the North Sea as the UK's biggest oil-producing region within 20 years.

Meanwhile, the new oil and gas strategy aimed at securing thousands of jobs and billions of pounds of investment was unveiled by UK Business Secretary Vince Cable in Aberdeen, which is known as the oil capital of Europe.

He addressed business leaders alongside Scottish Secretary Michael Moore and UK Energy Secretary Ed Davey.

The three secretaries of state outlined plans for "tax certainty", supply chain support and skills development.
Skills shortage

The government also announced a £7m commitment to help establish the Neptune offshore technology centre of excellence in Newcastle.

Mr Cable, who opened a facility at offshore specialists Expro in Aberdeen, said: "I want us to consider what barriers are stopping British companies bidding for and winning work in the North Sea. This is an expanding industry. We can either help create more jobs and opportunities across the UK if we get this right, or see work going overseas if not."

The oil and gas industry employs about 400,000 people and provides nearly half the UK's energy needs, the government said.

The strategy states that government will work with the industry to tackle a looming skills shortage, partly by re-training military leavers to fill some of the 15,000 new jobs expected to be created in the oil and gas sector over the next five years.

It also says that perceptions of the industry are "out-dated and inaccurate", and the government will back a campaign to highlight its significance.

It pledges to encourage more technological advancement through research and development, and also to improve the ability of small and medium-sized businesses to access finance.
'Strong collaboration'

Malcolm Webb, chairman of industry body Oil and Gas UK, said: "The strategy fosters strong and meaningful collaboration between the government and industry and will help to focus efforts on addressing particular areas such as skills, technology and exports.

"It will further strengthen the oilfield services sector across the country, boost investor confidence, safeguard jobs and help to maximise recovery of Britain's oil and gas reserves."

The future of the oil industry is key in the debate about Scottish independence.

The Scottish National Party, which forms the Scottish government, argues that the country can look forward to an oil boom in the early years of independence, assuming a Yes vote in September 2014.

Opponents warn against over-reliance on a volatile resource, prone to fluctuations in revenue.

Commenting on the publication of the strategy, Scottish Energy Minister Fergus Ewing said: "I am delighted that the UK government are following the Scottish government's lead in recognising the strength and importance of the oil and gas industry by launching their own oil and gas strategy.

"I am pleased that the UK government highlight the positive future of the industry for years to come, the extent of reserves, and the benefit to the balance of payments, and production taxes.

"I welcome their view that there will be a long term future for the oil and gas industry well beyond 2055."

I'm not sure about definitive estimates, but the fields are supposed to eclipse the East coast and it's expected that when production does wither it would move round as the initial developments are taking place now.

 

[[TW]Fox]

A consortium of oil companies is to invest more than $500m (£330m) in an appraisal drilling programme which could lead to further development of a giant Atlantic field.

Please tell me the fundamentals of the 'Yes' plan don't rely on this being a succesful appraisal?

 

[Biohazard]

And when it turns out to have been much exagerated it'll presumably be post 2014 and therefore too late to worry about it anyway

Only those who seek to diminish reality will be left wondering what's happened, if they really are that silly. It's clear that the record investment in the sector isn't on a whim, which successful international conglomerate or magnate acts on an impulse so heavily and costly?

Unfortunately I think you'll find yourself mistaken on this one, Fox.

 

[Biohazard]

Please tell me the fundamentals of the 'Yes' plan don't rely on this being a succesful appraisal?

They are based on the successful, strong diverse economy we have today. Part of the argument for independence is the future untapped potential of Scotland.

 

[eddiemcgarrigle]

Don't be believing the Unionist myths. They have been peddling their myths since the 70's fearing Scottish independence and the removal from the Treasury of the tax on Scotland's black gold. Just read the McCrone Report if you have any doubt to the duplicity of Westminster.