Using September as my sample month from last year, as it's likely less than say June or July would be, but is a good indicator of how life without Octopus Go might be.
Consumption for the month just over 500 kWh
Solar generation 375 kWh (75%):
162 kWh from the grid, though a lot is off-peak:
Exported 31 kWh:
According to my Octopus bill (data from website only goes back 4 months) I used:
123 kWh off-peak
15.4 kWh on-peak
For 01/09 - 26/09.
Based on all of this, I would say that in September, I'd still be taking some units from the grid, at least the delta between generation and usage. It would be 125 kWh here. A decent tariff like Agile with opportunity for low rates at times would allow me to force charge during the cheapest times of day, and a good export price means I could potentially not worry about over-filling if the import rates are good enough.
I don't expect to really be making anything from export though in September.
I guess in the prior 3-4 months I'd likely be exporting more, and using very little from the grid.
I'd want to switch back to a cheaper ToU tariff like Go by sometime in October probably (300 kWh last October generation) or the delta will slip too far the other way.