Post and small multi drop firms are completely different to haulage. As to simplicity imagine running 50 units across Europe and all of them require a serious charging station within any 400 miles of road say. What if the next station is 200 miles and the one after that 300? You have to plan that into every route. What if on the way back you get a load to drop off in Spain and have to reroute but the nearest charging station means an extra night or to get to the collections you have to drive 200 miles out of the way to make another charge so the driver can then drive another 300 miles to the next charging point.
Tesla
- Thread starter blackmonday
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Post and small multi drop firms are completely different to haulage. As to simplicity imagine running 50 units across Europe and all of them require a serious charging station within any 400 miles of road say. What if the next station is 200 miles and the one after that 300? You have to plan that into every route. What if on the way back you get a load to drop off in Spain and have to reroute but the nearest charging station means an extra night or to get to the collections you have to drive 200 miles out of the way to make another charge so the driver can then drive another 300 miles to the next charging point.
Some significant charging infrastructure (which will be expensive, granted) is required. I'd imagine the charging infrastructure would be placed to ensure that the scenario you are describing wouldnt be an issue. You seem to be thinking that there might be like 3 chargers for the whole of Europe. There could be tens of thousands. For example you could put one at every warehouse door to top off the batteries while loading/unloading. That's where we could end up once this goes mainstream. 80% of journeys in the US (which is pretty big, let's face it) are less than 250 miles.
By simplicity, I meant not having to take vehicles off the road on frequent intervals for servicing things like transmissions, differentials, brakes, etc etc. That should equate to much reduced downtime. Just one example. Reduced breakdowns is another. And so on.
Agreed, 600 miles is a game changer. You could literally drive all day without stopping. It opens up a lot of possibilities not available wth even something with 300 mile range. Less important in the UK, sure but if you’re driving around in Europe or North America it may make a big difference. Being able to just pull over on a backroad and have a break by a stream or beautiful view, rather than following the main road and making that same stop at a large fuel stop is a big deal.
You could probably do it with a 300 mile car, but any range anxiety is gone.
The future of car buying is going to be about weighing up the additional cost of range vs amount youre going to use it.
Top speed is a pointless metric over about 100 and 0-60 is fast becoming irrelevant to.
On the range/performance question I’d be interested to know the how number of motors and efficiency relate for Tesla’s tech. The Roadster has 3 motors. Could you increase efficiency and reduce performance by just providing one? Or are three Tesla motors working at 30% more efficient than one working at 90%
Well all that will come at a cost somewhere to the buyer and then past to the customer. I think some firms will take chance on Tesla, but they would be pretty specific applications.
Electric wagons do look great in some aspects and amount of crap diesel HGV's pump out needs to stop. IIRC it can be as much as a 1Kg per kilometre.
It would be interesting to know if the current Semi can be upgraded to full auto driving with the hardware inside it, or if that will need to be V2. Get rid of the driver and that’s another 50% saved, eminently possibly on major routes within 5-10 years. The huge investment would pay for itself in a very short time period.
Something pretty much impossible with diesel lorries.
I don't see why not. I wouldn't get rid of the driver though. That would be a massive liability. TBH I don't think you could.
Yes it will be a cost. But it may well pay for itself quicker than you think. But its a necessity, as your next point indicates
Indeed.
Yes it will be a cost. But it may well pay for itself quicker than you think. But its a necessity, as your next point indicates
Indeed.
Honestly you don't need a lot of things to go wrong before a job turns into an exercise in loss limiting.
Buying bad wagons will put you out of business and offering a 20-30% fuel saving and working around the hard mileage limit probably won't convince too many firms to drop the likes of Volvo, Scania and Merc for an untested Tesla even if they liked the idea of greener trucks.
I'd imagine for a lot of fleet owners the Tesla will be a case of let someone else run them to million miles first. I can see some slowly bringing them in and for city use they would probably be ideal as long as the reliability is right.
It's not a 20-30% fuel saving - it's a 20-30% total cost saving (excl the driver I think). That's massive when it comes to haulage. Once one company goes for it then they will all follow pretty rapidly as they would not otherwise be able to compete.
Also, some towns and cities might not let them in unless they can drive on zero-emissions power...
It will be interesting to see how this unfolds.
I honestly don't see that. @Scania What do you think? Swap whatever you're in for a eleccy Tesla? Fancy a round trip to Russia at -35 swinging back through Finland to pick up a return?
I'm quoting Elon's figures, which are in the US where fuel is considerably cheaper. So over here it could be more (assuming nothing else changes in the meantime).
While Scania's a great bloke I dont know if he's an expert (as none of us are) on electric trucks!
I'm quoting Elon's figures, which are in the US where fuel is considerably cheaper.
While Scania's a great bloke I dont know if he's an expert (as none of us are) on electric trucks!
Who is an expert on electric trucks? That's the problem Tesla are looking to overcome
Who is an expert on electric trucks? That's the problem Tesla are looking to overcome
Yes. There's a long way to go. Tesla, VW, Daimler are all working on this. It's coming.
I’m assuming Tesla has a Rabbit in the hat, the reason for this is on current technology a battery to give a 500mile range weighs roughly 14tons and that’s before you factor the weight of the motor/driveline chassis, cab, trailer and then of course you need a payload capacity that makes the vehicle viable for hauliers to operate.
As an example, a UK/European spec six axle artic and trailer is roughly 15tons unladen leaving a payload of 29tons - the overall weight limit for such a vehicle is 44tons due to bridge strength and other factors.
From what I understand it uses the brakes to help regenerate the batteries but, it doesn’t have much of a braking effect hence the Volvo’s use of conventional air brakes.
Who’s paying for this infrastructure in the start up phase though? Tesla?
I doubt the likes of Scania are going to feel too threatened by a truck that has ,at best , double the purchase price of a conventional rig but a lot less payload capacity due to its sheer weight, assuming Tesla hasn’t magically created a suitable battery that weighs much much less than current technology allows for, payload is what hauliers are paid by, no operator is going to drop say £500k to buy two electric HGV’s to carry the payload of a single conventional one costing under £100k
I think for a long while yet to the established heavy truck manufacturers Tesla will be little more than a distraction, I don’t see Tesla causing much disruption.
And this is why I don’t see them presenting a threat to the established manufacturers or a viable proposal to the industry, they seem hell bent on new ideas without sorting the ideas they already have first, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Tesla ultimately fail and the rest of the industry pick up their tech and make a success of it.
Sorry I wasnt clear - I meant when VW, Daimler etc announce an electric truck (along the lines of the ones they are currently working on). This is an electric to electric comparison, not an electric to diesel comparison.
Eventually (although long after I’m out of this game I imagine) all trucks will be this way, I really think it’s going to be many many years before you can trundle upto Murmansk for example in an environment that’s brutal to battery life with confidence, I very much doubt in that sort of scenario a diesel is going to be the more risky proposition.
Massively cheaper over there, I’m not sure what sort of weight limits the US has though, a truck is all about payload, the more it can carry within its weight limit the more viable it is to the operator.
We’ve clearly not met!
I’m not convinced Elton is either....I dont know if he's an expert (as none of us are) on electric trucks!
Companies are already testing autonomous driving with drivers. I’m talking specifically without drivers. It’s going to happen a lot sooner than you (and many people) think. There’s a massive financial benefit to it as well, which is why it’s going to come fast.
A lorry being able to drive for 24 hours straight across europe, with just 2-3 half hour stops to recharge will save huge amounts of money for haulers as they can do more journeys with the same equipment. Add in the cost reduction from no driver and you can see why it’s such a money saver.
Setting the systems up would be relatively trivial as well. The roads can be scanned ahead of time (detailed lidar maps - it’s already being done in the US) and charging points installed at critical locations.
I’m not talking about bitty work, but depot to depot transportation along major roads. Pickup and drop off work where the lorry is driving through towns and along small roads, doing multiple stops will probably be the last vestiges of full automation, at least with HGVs.