Tesla

Joe T said:
Sorry I wasnt clear - I meant when VW, Daimler etc announce an electric truck (along the lines of the ones they are currently working on). This is an electric to electric comparison, not an electric to diesel comparison. :)
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Ah, got you, on that we’all just have to wait & see if Tesla pull this off and if say VW/Scania don’t....

One thing for sure, whilst Tesla is shouting about it I don’t doubt for one second all the other players are at work on this and indeed have most likely been doing so for longer than Tesla as an entity has been in existence, we need them to show their hand next.
 
jigger said:
I honestly don't see that. @Scania What do you think? Swap whatever you're in for a eleccy Tesla? Fancy a round trip to Russia at -35 swinging back through Finland to pick up a return?
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Tesla’s domestic market is the US, a significant proportion of which has not dissimilar weather conditions to Russia in Winter. If the HGV they make can’t cope with working in much of the US then it’s pretty much useless.
 
Amp34 said:
Companies are already testing autonomous driving with drivers. I’m talking specifically without drivers. It’s going to happen a lot sooner than you (and many people) think. There’s a massive financial benefit to it as well, which is why it’s going to come fast.

A lorry being able to drive for 24 hours straight across europe, with just 2-3 half hour stops to recharge will save huge amounts of money for haulers as they can do more journeys with the same equipment. Add in the cost reduction from no driver and you can see why it’s such a money saver.

Setting the systems up would be relatively trivial as well. The roads can be scanned ahead of time (detailed lidar maps - it’s already being done in the US) and charging points installed at critical locations.

I’m not talking about bitty work, but depot to depot transportation along major roads. Pickup and drop off work where the lorry is driving through towns and along small roads, doing multiple stops will probably be the last vestiges of full automation, at least with HGVs.
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I don't see anyone sending out a wagon without a driver. 45 tone at 50Mph is packing a lot of energy. Not to mention you need someone to take responsibility for the load.
 
So at worst you hire a minimum wage operator to be there when/if needed to help unload. Probably not really needed for depot to depot runs anyway. He can be asleep in the cab until needed, so no stopping for the driver required (other than perhaps toilet breaks during refuel).

What you’re showing is the biggest issue companies are going to face. Not the technology any more, that’s coming along nicely. It’s the public perception. Once enough people are persuaded that autonomous vehicles actually are safer (as the stats show) then the bulk of the issue is removed.
 
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Amp34 said:
So at worst you hire a minimum wage operator to be there when/if needed to help unload. Probably not really needed for depot to depot runs anyway. He can be asleep in the cab until needed, so no stopping for the driver required (other than perhaps toilet breaks during refuel).

What your showing is the biggest issue companies are going to face. Not the technology any more, that’s coming along nicely. It’s the public perception. Once enough people are persuaded that autonomous vehicles actually are safer (as the stats show) then the bulk of the issue is removed.
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HGV's are dangerous. You'd want a driver just for the safety side. Driver plus Tesla aids not drivers mate along for rides.
 
jigger said:
I don't see anyone sending out a wagon without a driver. 45 tone at 50Mph is packing a lot of energy. Not to mention you need someone to take responsibility for the load.
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Autonomous driving as it is currently requires a driver present, but as the technology matures, that won't always be the case. Give it 5-10 years or quite possibly even less than that and there will be vehicles on our roads that do not have a driver present. You can almost guarantee that the first batch of autonomous driverless vehicles will be the large commercial trucks that trundle up and down the motorway every day. Give it 20-30 years and the entire logistics chain will be automated, the cost savings for companies are immense. For starters a robot doesn't have a "sick day" and they can operate 24/7.
 
Driving a lorry is not like driving a car. Maybe if the government tarmac the railways and armco can take 45 tonnes at 56Mph we'll see driverless lorries.
 
I'm pretty sure, that the people spending billions of research and development to bring autonomous vehicles (large and small) to market have thought of all the possible variables.

In our life time (assuming your mid to late 30's) our roads will become super highways for autonomous vehicles and possible even drones. The technology is already there, it just needs to mature enough to become cost effective. Just like robotics have had a massive impact on manufacturing, autopilot will have a drastic impact on the transport industry (be it lorry, taxi or bus).
 
jigger said:
HGV's are dangerous. You'd want a driver just for the safety side. Driver plus Tesla aids not drivers mate along for rides.
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Yes they are. But you need to prove to me that a driver is inherently more safe than a computer. It’s already been shown that cars are safer driven by computer than people, so you’re on a difficult mission there.

As an aside Phoenix (IIRC) has just got a fully autonomous taxi service. There is a “driver” currently, but they are sat in the back seat with no immediate access to controls.
 
Don't think scania could be further from reality.
Walmart are extremely interested in EVs. The Tesla truck was developed in conjunction with the industry, not just Tesla on there own.
Other companies just like in the car industry will struggle to catch up the latter they leave it. Not only do they have to source batteries they are miles behind on charger network.
Tesla will install mega chargers just like superchargers. Although I'm sure they'll be willing to install them at depots at a cost.
Tesla is also about to announce 4 more giga factories to ramp up battery production for expected demand.
Most trucks have a set and known route. The majority do not go to northern Canada etc. Its not a one size fits all, but it does suit a large portion of the market.

And driverless will come sooner or later. Although you'll probably have a minimum wage security person sat on there.
 
I can see the main hubs having autonomous lorries taking stuff up the motorways where the road markings etc are all to the required standard. Then a driver takes the lorries to and from the final destinations. Allowing localised electricity infrastructure in typically industrial zones.

You can imagine how this would allow a dramatic reduction in salary costs ontop of fuel costs reductions
 
It would be interesting to know what kind of battery size they are aiming for. To be able to charge a 800-1000kW battery to 80% in 30 minutes is going to need a significant amount of current and need a charger in excess of 1MW to have several of these in one location is going to need an upgrade of the local power grid. I imagine the UKs power grid is in need of a significant overhaul to charge 300,000 HGVs (rough figure I got from Google) and millions of cars overnight.
 
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Dangerous Dave said:
It would be interesting to know what kind of battery size they are aiming for. To be able to charge a 800-1000kW battery to 80% in 30 minutes is going to need a significant amount of current and need a charger in excess of 1MW to have several of these in one location is going to need an upgrade of the local power grid. I imagine the UKs power grid is in need of a significant overhaul to charge 300,000 HGVs (rough figure I got from Google) and millions of cars overnight.
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Nuclear.
 
It was an interesting event. I think you can read between the lines of the Tesla news over the last couple of months and conclude the delay was for the roadster 'one more thing' than issues with the semi.

Firstly the roadster. Love it, I just love the fact the only reason they have made it is 'because we can'. It is just a massive middle finger to Ferrari who are really the only mainstream car brand these days that are fully anti electrification. They wern't mentioned by name in the keynote but that jab was specifically at them and their attitude is something that will relegate them to the history books if they are not careful.

200kWh in a car like that is impressive but I can envisage how they have done it, as others have said they need the huge battery to get the power out of it. But lets not jump to any conclusions, it is still using the same tech as the s/x/3 inside. It is just essentially 2 P110D's in one car which frankly has impressive results. The one thing that is great for EV's is that you can make them faster and faster, yet it doesn't really effect efficiency at all. Has anyone looked at how a S/X is actually constructed? The battery is actually a structural element of the car, it is what makes them so safe, particularly on side impacts. The stats are just silly but that's what you get from a quick EV. Just look at the S, it is a huge lump of a car but can do 0-60 in 2.5, i'm not surprised the car that is smaller, lighter and twice as powerful can do it in under 2.

The Semi is an interesting concept and is something I can see only getting more and more ground as we move forwards. The drag coefficient was mightly impressive, to a point I am surprised that more is not being done on this in the ICE world. Do I see it initially as a big volume product? Hell no, but it will slowly gain momentum as more and more big companies get on board. Just take a look at the supercharger network, it didn't exist 5 years ago but now it covers most of western Europe and almost all of the USA. A truck version wouldn't need to be any where near as extensive. It would just need to be on all the major trunk roads, the depot's will put in their own chargers so do it when they are home. There would be very little need got inner city charger locations unlike with cars.

Did anyone notice that the bigger of the two trucks did not have any mirrors, how would that work in the EU?

The main issue that the incumbent manufactures have is not designing the vehicle, its actually getting enough batteries to build them in sufficient quantities to make it to market. Tesla are well ahead of the game here.
 
b0rn2sk8 said:
200kWh in a car like that is impressive but I can envisage how they have done it, as others have said they need the huge battery to get the power out of it. But lets not jump to any conclusions, it is still using the same tech as the s/x/3 inside. It is just essentially 2 P110D's in one car which frankly has impressive results. The one thing that is great for EV's is that you can make them faster and faster, yet it doesn't really effect efficiency at all. Has anyone looked at how a S/X is actually constructed?
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Yes looked at both and there is no way the roadster here has either the 18650 cells from the S or the 2070 from the 3. There just isn’t the energy density. The S pack is 500kg.

This is another kettle of fish and a move into solid state, especially as it even offers 2 rear seats and a folding roof!
 
If it was new tech, they would be bragging it was the first solid state car coming to market. The S/X pack also only uses the space between the wheels, they could utilise the space in the front, back and potentially double stack them under the rear seats etc. If the car has the potential to charge in 1 min they would have said but they didn't. It will just use the existing super charger network which is why we saw nothing on that front, a 200kWh car is going to take a very long time to charge.


Folding roof? Not sure on that, certainly removable but I can't see how it would fold, the rear looks like 1 piece.
 
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