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*** The AMD RDNA 4 Rumour Mill ***

Exactly and AMD sales share is disintegrating:
PR_AIB_Q123_001.png

AMD-Intel-Nvidia-GPU-market-share-Q3-2024.png


The cards are not selling looking at objective numbers. Lot of people cherry pick numbers from some stores,but ignore JPR who are showing AMD sales share overall is collapsing. It's also seen in their own financials,where they are talking about soft demand for graphics products. Nvidia gaming revenue is going up as is share.

The RX7000 series overall was a disaster. AMD share has gone from 24% 3 years ago to 10% late last year.
Using the term 'objective numbers' is a bit misleading use of the term considering not all the information is available on those graphs you show. I'm not saying that your conclusion is wrong or right. However, I do take some issue with the data shown. Its very lacking no matter what the truth might or might not be.
 
And i don't think there is anything they can realistically do about that.
It's easy to increase market share in the short term: Release a good card at a low price. The number of users that would drop NV for a good card at a low price is bigger than most think. AMD just don't want to drop the price and that is what's going to end them. Intel will probably get most of AMD's market share.
 
Using the term 'objective numbers' is a bit misleading use of the term considering not all the information is available on those graphs you show. I'm not saying that your conclusion is wrong or right. However, I do take some issue with the data shown. Its very lacking no matter what the truth might or might not be.

Those are AIB shipment numbers available to JPR - the exact numbers are available in the paid for reports. Both AMD and Nvidia have used them and Mercury Research in their own marketing slides before,so they are trustworthy numbers in those reports. There are people on Twitter trying to use numbers cherry picked from German retailers as indications AMD sales are 100% perfectly fine.

Combine that with what they are saying in their earnings calls,it's quite clear AMD graphics sales are poor. Nvidia gaming revenue went up last year and AMD gaming revenue went the other way. They are taking sales away from AMD as the market itself is overall not expanding in total consumer volume IIRC(could be wrong on the total volumes).

The whole "we are not a budget brand" strategy hasn't work in any way for AMD. People want to keep batting for AMD because they are the underdog,but they are a large billion USD company.

ATI might have been a minnow,but being an old ATI user,they were 10X better at what they did. No wonder they sometimes beat Nvidia in actual sales.

You can't blame it all on consoles - Nvidia is also exposed to consoles via the Switch too which is ancient.
 
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It's easy to increase market share in the short term: Release a good card at a low price. The number of users that would drop NV for a good card at a low price is bigger than most think. AMD just don't want to drop the price and that is what's going to end them. Intel will probably get most of AMD's market share.
What happened to wanting to get market share?

I guess it turned into an overclockers dream.
 
Those are AIB shipment numbers available to JPR - the exact numbers are available in the paid for reports. Both AMD and Nvidia use them and Mercury Research in their own marketing slides before,so they are trustworthy numbers.

Combine that with what they are saying in their earnings calls,it's quite clear AMD graphics sales are poor. Nvidia gaming revenue went up last year and AMD gaming revenue went the other way. You can't blame that all on consoles - Nvidia is also exposed to consoles via the Switch too which is ancient.
I think you misunderstand what I said. You can give people 2 different conclusions using the same data set. It is all down to how you present that data. It's the presentation of the numbers I take issue with. Not your opinion or, at this point in time, the numbers themselves. Data is left out from those graphs, quarters are missing. Using the same data from those 2 graphs the AMD share went up 5% in 1 year but that data is split into 2 different graphs and is not visible when viewing the data on a graph by graph basis. Why are we not shown the effects of the holiday sales in 23 through to Q1 24? Those graphs are hiding something IMHO.
 
I think you misunderstand what I said. You can give people 2 different conclusions using the same data set. It is all down to how you present that data. It's the presentation of the numbers I take issue with. Not your opinion or, at this point in time, the numbers themselves. Data is left out from those graphs, quarters are missing. Using the same data from those 2 graphs the AMD share went up 5% in 1 year but that data is split into 2 different graphs and is not visible when viewing the data on a graph by graph basis. Why are we not shown the effects of the holiday sales in 23 through to Q1 24? Those graphs are hiding something IMHO.

Because I quickly looked at some figures - they were yearly quarter comparisons. Here are the missing months:
PR_AIB_Q23_001.png


AIB_PR_Q124_001.png
 
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This is so great, thanks for sharing!

Are you able to provide any data to back up your claim that "nobody bought" the 7800XT, and that "in the markets they sell they have way too much unsold inventory"...

I appreciate the narrative you are pushing, and would love to see the full spectrum of data that backs it up :)

@CAT-THE-FIFTH Helloooo?!

Can you see this buddy? No worries if it's taking a bit of time to find those sources - just let me know :)

Using the term 'objective numbers' is a bit misleading use of the term considering not all the information is available on those graphs you show. I'm not saying that your conclusion is wrong or right. However, I do take some issue with the data shown. Its very lacking no matter what the truth might or might not be.

Yup, the charts are only partially useful without know the bar totals, the dollar share & totals, and more nuanced breakdowns (model, region, etc.).

There are people on Twitter trying to use numbers cherry picked from German retailers as indications AMD sales are 100% perfectly fine.

Hi! Yes, I'm right here dude! We're civil adults, so you're allowed to quote me and respond directly :)

Personally, I am not at all making the point that "AMD sales are 100% perfectly fine"; that would be ridiculous.

I'm trying to address your assertions above that "nobody bought the 7800XT" and that "[AMD] have way too much unsold inventory".

Generally speaking, if you're unable to provide a source, people will assume you're making things up to create drama and attention :eek:
 
This is so great, thanks for sharing!

Are you able to provide any data to back up your claim that "nobody bought" the 7800XT, and that "in the markets they sell they have way too much unsold inventory"...

I appreciate the narrative you are pushing, and would love to see the full spectrum of data that backs it up :)
He’s ignoring you dude. I think you upset him somehow :p
 
He’s ignoring you dude. I think you upset him somehow :p

I am not,but I pointed out enough data to disprove their view AMD sales are doing fine and they never will read them.

The fact they picked sales from a German/Dutch retailer to show it was fine,when AMD sales share collapsed from 19% to 10% over the same 12 month period is obvious where it is heading.


@CAT-THE-FIFTH Helloooo?!

Can you see this buddy? No worries if it's taking a bit of time to find those sources - just let me know
:)




Yup, the charts are only partially useful without know the bar totals, the dollar share & totals, and more nuanced breakdowns (model, region, etc.).



Hi! Yes, I'm right here dude! We're civil adults, so you're allowed to quote me and respond directly
:)


Personally, I am not at all making the point that "AMD sales are 100% perfectly fine"; that would be ridiculous.

I'm trying to address your assertions above that "nobody bought the 7800XT" and that "[AMD] have way too much unsold inventory".

Generally speaking, if you're unable to provide a source, people will assume you're making things up to create drama and attention
:eek:

You have repeated tried to indicate AMD sales are fine in this thread. Yet JPR,who both AMD and Nvidia use showed AMD sales share collapsing from 19% to 10% in 12 months. AMD also has hardly any share on Steam either.

Cherry picking sales data from one German distributor of AMD cards,is what people have been trying for the last 12 months. Yet,AMD financials say otherwise - even their own earnings calls.

Nvidia gaming revenues and sales are up,in a stagnant/decreasing card market which means they are taking sales away from AMD. That can't be all consoles.

People need to stop covering for the repeated AMD failures. It's becoming a meme.
 
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He’s ignoring you dude. I think you upset him somehow :p

Oh dear. Too many difficult questions perhaps? :(

I am not,but I pointed out enough data to disprove his view AMD sales are doing fine and he never will read them.

Can you show me where I said "AMD sales are doing fine" please?

I am happy to (re)explain my position, since you clearly appear to have misunderstood things I have posted.

I have also been reading - in detail - every one of your posts :)

You have repeated trying to spin AMD sales are fine in this thread.

Is this "spin" in the room with us right now...?
 
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The whole market share thing is so myopic, specially from the steam survey as that includes old cards. I think a decent amount of the market share drop in the steam survey will be down to ending support for Polaris. There were a shed load of rx 470/480/570/580/590s kicking around. And those numbers are only dropping. And for the last few years the majority of those were reclaimed 2nd hand mining cards. So amd hasn't seen a penny of that money since 2019
 
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Do you have a source for that, buddy? Here's one I found that seems to contradict your assertion :)





Still waiting on a source for this as well, please :)
Where do you get these from? Is it possible to get these going back to Q3 2022? Want to see if this is typical results for this store or an outlier.

My guess is money.

They're waiting to see how the 5070 performs so they can price the 9070 XT accordingly.
I imagine it's greed. They're trying to maximise profit. An evil concept when Nvidia do it, but I'm sure it's fine when AMD do it.
 
They could if they stopped trying to play this 4D Chess jebait stuff and release stuff properly. Even with the RX7000 series,Nvidia gave them a huge chance with the horrendously overpriced RTX4070 which was a joke.

What did AMD do? Wait to launch the RX7800XT four months later,which by the street price of the RTX4070 had dropped and it was easier to get. RX7800XT availability was patchy for a month or two. The same goes with the RX7900XT series. Instead of launching it as an RX7800/RX7800XT at a reasonable price,they looked at the RTX4080 12GB and thought we could do the same. Then Nvidia trolled them by relaunching it as the overpriced RTX4070TI 12GB for $50 less.
Then you had the tepid RX7600 8GB which was only slightly cheaper than an RTX4060.

By the time last year they had dropped prices it was too late. If people on this forum can see how bad this is,then the average buyer is going to care even less. AMD then has to deep discount cards,which they would have needed to do if they launched their products properly.



They were awesome cards - some were as cheap as £250!

I waited quite a long time for the 7800 XT and yes the moment they launched it Nvidia relaunched the 4070, 4070 Ti and 4080 as supers dropping the price of the vanilla 4070 by $50, they did this to pee on AMD's camp fire....

So what was it all for? They waited for the 4070 before launching the 7800 XT, they made those of us wanting it wait many months, once Nvidia launched the 4070 at $600 they responded a few weeks later at $500 and with in days Nvidia did that ^^^ so all they achieved was to frustrate people by making them wait, Nvidia made sure they won as they always will.

Now AMD are doing exactly the same thing again expecting a different outcome.
 
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Where do you get these from? Is it possible to get these going back to Q3 2022? Want to see if this is typical results for this store or an outlier.


I imagine it's greed. They're trying to maximise profit. An evil concept when Nvidia do it, but I'm sure it's fine when AMD do it.
No its !"#!"# no matter who does it.

Side note: More GRAPHS!!
 
Where do you get these from? Is it possible to get these going back to Q3 2022? Want to see if this is typical results for this store or an outlier.

Source at bottom of the original post here. I believe they do either monthly or quarterly reports, so you could in theory download them all and build a pretty good view over time.

As I stated in that post though, I wouldn't take this as gospel. It is just one retailer's view, in one country, and they may have vendor relationships that skew their sales data vs. the rest of the market.

I imagine it's greed. They're trying to maximise profit. An evil concept when Nvidia do it, but I'm sure it's fine when AMD do it.

Assume you're joking, but "greed" is not greed when it's fiduciary duty :)
 
The whole market share thing is so myopic, specially from the steam survey as that includes old cards. I think a decent amount of the market share drop in the steam survey will be down to ending support for Polaris. There were a shed load of rx 470/480/570/580/590s kicking around. And those numbers are only dropping. And for the last few years the majority of those were reclaimed 2nd hand mining cards. So amd hasn't seen a penny of that money since 2019

That makes it even worse! :(
Where do you get these from? Is it possible to get these going back to Q3 2022? Want to see if this is typical results for this store or an outlier.


I imagine it's greed. They're trying to maximise profit. An evil concept when Nvidia do it, but I'm sure it's fine when AMD do it.

It's one German or Dutch retailer IIRC - they also seem to be the one store which also stocks the most AMD cards in Germany/Holland from what I gather on Twitter and Reddit. Which only says AMD is popular in that country.
I waited quite a long time for the 7800 XT and yes the moment they launched it Nvidia relaunched the 4070, 4070 Ti and 4080 as suppers dropping the price of the vanilla 4070 by $50, they did this to pee on AMD's camp fire....

So what was it all for? They waited for the 4070 before launching the 7800 XT, they made those of us wanting it wait many months, once Nvidia launched the 4070 at $600 they responded a few weeks late at $500 and with in days Nvidia did that ^^^ so all they achieved was to frustrate people by making them wait, Nvidia made sure they won as they always will.

Now AMD are doing exactly the same thing again expecting a different outcome.

I'll just put this here https://www.jonpeddie.com/news/ship...n-boards-increase-for-third-quarter-in-a-row/ . People can go read and make up their own minds.

Looks to me AMD has sold through a fair bit of inventory in Q3 and Q4 23. 7800XT was released september 2023. Coincidence?
AMD delaying the 7800XT for 4 months lost them sales IMHO,when the RTX4070 was so overpriced.

The 7800XT was a great product,but look what happened in Q1 2024:

AMD share collapsed from 19% to 12% - that co-incides with the Super refresh from Nvidia.

This is the latest one:

Desktop card sales decreased YoY and AMD still lost share to Nvidia.

But to put those numbers in context,AMD with Polaris had around 30% share with only two models,both under £300:

AMD hasn't reached 30% share for a few years with a more complete line-up!:(
 
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If distributors and retailers already have stock,is AMD going to pay them for the next 6 to 8 weeks for storage? I can't imagine a lot of companies wan't shelf space filled with stock they cannot sell yet.
That's a good point. How does that conversation even go?

- Here's our new stock for you to sell.
- Great!
- But you can't sell it.
- Wot?
 
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