Poll: The EU Referendum: How Will You Vote? (April Poll)

[Basher]

Maybe another option would be to look at leaving with a "we will assess the situation every 5 years!"

I think this would be a bad idea. Markets need a level of certainty or at least predictability. If we are also on the edge of staying/leaving, it would create a huge headache for lots of businesses and defer major projects/spending.

 

[Tunney]

Allow me to be the Leave equivalent of Moses for a moment:

One Moses is more than enough thanks.

 

[Mulder]

Anyone watched the Newsnight special on the referendum, or "Europe: Them or Us" or question time last night? All worth watching.

 

[Avenged7Fold]

Ruh roh, rolleyes!

There is equal uncertainty with either decision, I’m just sick of those who exaggerate the safety of staying and the danger of leaving.

Dont you think there has been pretty big exaggerations of the dangers of leaving as well?

Y'know like a few pages back when it was stated we will all be forcefully conscripted into the EU army to duke it out on their behalf if we stay?

 

[MookJong]

How do those in the remain camp feel about Turkey joining the EU?

 

[Dave M]

Everywhere I look, comments, online polls, social media. I don't see it.

I think it's related to how our brains work to obtain things we want - on the African savannah this may have meant hunting prey or finding food, it could save our lives so our brains bring it to our focus much more.

It's the same idea as when you are thinking about getting a certain model of car and suddenly you start seeing them everywhere, every advert is talking about them, every tv show has one passing. It's just been brought to the attention of your conscious mind.

This is why statisticians can get paid more than doctors, we just can't trust our own experience.

 

[Skunkworks]

How do those in the remain camp feel about Turkey joining the EU?

Nope nope never happen nope reasons nothing to see here.

 

[AHarvey]

Some pretty crazy optimism there, are there any numbers to go with it or was it just an ambitiously optimistic statement?

One guy knew exactly what he thought: “I did some maths on the back of an envelope as well. I should say I’m an economist and a financial adviser. And I took the £10 billion of net savings we would make if we left Europe and I multiplied these by 14, which is the number of years up to 2030.

“I then used the economic credit multiplier, because of course you have the benefit of spending that money, the taxes raised on it, some economic growth and so on. And do you know the figure I came up with?

“The figure I came up with was £1.5 trillion, which means if we leave the EU we’ll be able to fund and repay the national debt by the time 2030 comes.”

His economic takedown won support of the founder of Wetherspoon’s, Tim Martin, and panelist and keen Leave campaigner, who punched the air.

 

[joeyjojo]

But again this is just form filling, if the talent needs to move in the age of online application forms and automation is it really that big a deal? Enough to compromise our sovereignty over?

Basically what Avenged7Fold said, fewer barriers.

The University of Oxford released a statement today of "in" (emphasis added by me):

As a world-leading University, Oxford has for many years carried out research on the place of Europe in British public life (through the work of several of its academic departments and institutes such as its European Studies Centre). The University welcomes the opportunity to participate in the current debate on the EU Referendum through that research.

Membership of the EU currently benefits the University in a number of ways. The mobility that EU membership affords, which enables staff and students from across the EU to come to Oxford, and Oxford staff and students to work and study in Europe, is central to our Strategic Plan. This contains at its heart the exchange of ideas that strengthens our ability to contribute to society and to the national and local economy, and provides intellectual benefit in partner universities and research institutes. The EU facilitates our participation in pan-European research collaborations; enables us to contribute to the development of EU research policy to the benefit of the UK as a whole; and provides us with access to EU research funding (of some £66m in 2014/15). All this serves our vision of the University of Oxford as a global hub for intellectual engagement.

While recognising that individual members of the University will hold different views on the Referendum, and while encouraging open debate on the issue, the University’s Council wishes to affirm the value that the UK’s membership of the EU provides to the University.

http://www.ox.ac.uk/eu-referendum

 

[Mulder]

Some pretty crazy optimism there, are there any numbers to go with it or was it just an ambitiously optimistic statement?

The guy was in the audience of question time and was apparently an economist. He said he'd worked out that the £8bn or so we'd save every year from our net contribution to the EU, out to 2030 (when the Government's propaganda went out to) would equate to £112bn, which if you then added the economic multiplier effect, subsequent tax receipts etc would get to a much bigger number.

It's a lot easier to work through that than the Government's "look at how complex and complicated this is" finger in the air propaganda.

 

[Avenged7Fold]

None of these economists are including the huge costs involved that we will need to take care of when we leave the EU. They treat the money paid to the eu as if its money in a business to invest as it wishes and the EU just a bill that does not need to be paid.

If we include costs of migration control and all the other bits and bobs before we start multiplying by this and that, i would imagine the number vastly different. Doesnt matter if you are an economist or not, the calculations they stated is too simple and does not include and costs apart from the one we pay to the EU now.

 

[jasonmorris]

Switzerland, Iceland and Norway have to pay a large amount of money to trade with the EU - it ain't free and they have to accept plenty of the rules we already do. The big worry is that the Daily Mail & Express & Gove are convincing people that the promised land is just round the corner. We all believe the the number one reason people will vote to leave is immigration but they don't realise it will continue at the current levels if we wish to be a close trading partner. it's one of the regulations you have to accept like the countries above. We need to stay in so please vote with your brains and don't believe the crap spewing from the mouths of idiots like Boris who just wants to be like his idol Winston.

 

[Mr Jack]

There is equal uncertainty with either decision, I’m just sick of those who exaggerate the safety of staying and the danger of leaving.

Nonsense. There's vastly more uncertainty with leaving; we simply don't know what a post-Brexit Britain will look like. Maybe we'll rejoin the EFTA; maybe we won't. Maybe will get the trade deals we want with non-EU countries; maybe we won't. And on and on: we simply don't know.

 

[Mulder]

Nonsense. There's vastly more uncertainty with leaving; we simply don't know what a post-Brexit Britain will look like. Maybe we'll rejoin the EFTA; maybe we won't. Maybe will get the trade deals we want with non-EU countries; maybe we won't. And on and on: we simply don't know.

A vote to remain is not a vote for the status quo. Do you know what the EU will look like in 40 years?

 

[bayo000]

How do those in the remain camp feel about Turkey joining the EU?

That's a long time away. Turkey and Ukraine have to meet all the requirements for membership and it has to be approved by all EU state, UK included.

How do those in out camp feel about being in this Norway type agreement that includes free movement of people without any say over further EU expansion?

 

[Mr Jack]

A vote to remain is not a vote for the status quo. Do you know what the EU will look like in 40 years?

Things change. There is no 'stop' button to make the world stay as it is. Of this we can be sure; that doesn't mean that some scenarios are not more uncertain than others.

 

[Tefal]

That's a long time away. Turkey and Ukraine have to meet all the requirements for membership and it has to be approved by all EU state, UK included.

Yeah, just like Greece did...

 

[troops]

A vote to remain is not a vote for the status quo. Do you know what the EU will look like in 40 years?

Something similar to Turkey.

 

[Avenged7Fold]

Something similar to Turkey.

Oh, and what would turkey be like 40 years from now?

 

[silversurfer]

Nonsense. There's vastly more uncertainty with leaving; we simply don't know what a post-Brexit Britain will look like. Maybe we'll rejoin the EFTA; maybe we won't. Maybe will get the trade deals we want with non-EU countries; maybe we won't. And on and on: we simply don't know.

I think thats the common perception but the course with EU is more uncertain then it looks. We presume they know what they are doing but I think events will determine the EU more then the leadership is ready to handle and its future is uncertain is face of those challenges. Their reaction so far to quite small events like Greece corrupt debt and other failures has not been an effective solution long term and will drag on for decades still.
I would rather UK took a step back from the various negatives in the EU that are ongoing, mainly that is a gigantic government system of subsidies and regulations not especially conducive to encouraging business.

The UK is far better off just doing its normal business, regulating itself and if we mess that up we vote off the local MP and form a new government, its far more tangled and messy across state borders stretching into Asia and the baltic when we are tied to all the other failures ongoing.
If it worked I'd be for it but my judgement is they failed to deal with failures properly and solve/learn, we should leave and handle our own business

Im interested in the odds available for the vote either side, I think the result is fairly obvious