Poll: The EU Referendum: How Will You Vote? (June Poll)

Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?

  • Remain a member of the European Union

    Votes: 794 45.1%
  • Leave the European Union

    Votes: 965 54.9%

  • Total voters
    1,759
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Immigration is a net benefit to the exchequer. We would lose money by reducing immigration.
Based on what?

If you have in mind the usual source of that claim, that being Dustmann and Frattini's UCL paper, I'd suggest you go take a long, hard look at exactly what the paper says and in particular, the methodology used. It is not based on an accounting type exercise, like a P&L based on complete and accurate data, but on incomplete data, and based on a whole series of assumptions on what costs to include, how to assess, approximate or allocate costs, and for that matter, revenues.

It is an interesting academic exercise but it needs to be seen as exactly that - can academic paper, full of assumptions and artificial treatments. What it is not is an accurate accounting of either revenues or expenditures. If you change those assumptions, the justification for which is very brief where it exists at all, the can come to completely different results.

Moreover, it's worth looking at what the House of Lords said about immigration impact analyses -
Professor Rowthorn showed that the results of fiscal impact studies depend not only on the treatment of children but also on a range of other factors including, for example, whether a proportion of defence costs are attributed to migrants. Different treatment of these factors leads to various estimates for the net fiscal impact of immigrants, ranging from -£5.3 billion to +£2.6 billion for 2003–04.
That same criticism applies to the UCL paper, and indeed, the paper itself spends a fair bit of time in it's 50-ish pages pointing out the shortcomings, the limited data available, the assumptions made in allocations and so on.

And even if it were 100% accurate and 100% complete, it is still only looking at fiscal impacts and takes no account whatever of either overall impact on the economy or on the social impact. Thus, it ignores other reports suggesting, for example, that immigration impacts on the wages, and employment levels, of the poorest paid.

Let me put that another way. Even if the claim is true, and that overall the fiscal impact is beneficial, it would be prudent to look at the allication of the benefit. For instance, if big businesses, and their owners, benefit hugely from reduced labour costs, but the low-paid suffer from reduced employment levels and suppressed wages then overall there's a net benefit, but at considerable social impact on the poor while the rich get richer.

But hey, immigration must be good because an over-simplified one-line summary says "net benefit", right?

The House of Lords report concluded
the fiscal impact (of immigration) is small compared to GDP and cannot be used to justify large-scale immigration.
Yet, it's astonishing how often a one-line tabloid misinterpretation of Dustmann and Frattini is used to do exactly that.

Be very careful how you use simplified summaries from academic papers to justify real-world decisions because, far too often, those academic papers have assumed and allocated the reality out of the subject in order to make it workable at all. The picture from migration reports is nowhere near as clear as simplistic newspaper reporting would have us believe. Don't believe me either? You don't need to. Go read the actual reports, in full, and pay particular attention to the vast array of caveats they contain.
 
How can you be on the side about anything in agreement with Farage?

I think it's reasonable to believe a guy who is trying to get sacked from his nice £250,000 year job.

Nigel Farage is certainly not going for the popular vote. All the stick he has had to endure throughout the years from the left wing media. Slowly making it acceptable to question mass immigration.

I do trust what Farage says. Nick 'Media Training' Clegg will say anything to stay popular and whatever is trendy at the time.
 
I think it's reasonable to believe a guy who is trying to get sacked from his nice £250,000 year job.

Nigel Farage is certainly not going for the popular vote. All the stick he has had to endure throughout the years from the left wing media. Slowly making it acceptable to question mass immigration.

I do trust what Farage says. Nick 'Media Training' Clegg will say anything to stay popular and whatever is trendy at the time.

Absolutely, total man of his word that Farage, hence he is no longer leader of UKIP after he promised he'd quit if he didn't win Thanet in 2015

Oh wait....
 
Did he not tender his resignation?

So? He said they wouldn't accept it :rolleyes: .....I'm sorry but people are criticising Clegg for not keeping his word over something he had no control over - An election pledge if they won the election - which they didn't and he had to compromise over issues when in a coalition, which is perfectly normal. And then saying Farage is a man of his word when he didn't even resign when he promised he would, something he has full control over. No-one can 'stop' you resigning just by saying we don't accept your resignation.
 
If you look at it purely in terms of net monetary value, yes you are right - taking into account the figures in that source, every person in the UK will be 26p per day better off if we were no longer an EU member. The question is, do you think that it's worth paying 26p per day to remain a member of the EU? For you, obviously not. Personally, I suspect it might be a price worth paying to maintain a position as an influencing member of the union, especially given that even if we do leave, a large amount of our trade will still need to be conducted with EU member states. For me, 26p per day to maintain that influence doesn't really strike me as a bad deal at all.

What influence? We don't seem to have any within the EU as evidenced by the very thin gruel deal that David Cameron obtained prior to the referendum campaign. Previous examples of how much influence we have are giving up 20% of rebate in exchange for a reform of the CAP which subsequently never happened, and obtaining an opt-out on the Charter of Fundamental Rights which the ECJ later decided we didn't have after all.

We have less influence outside the EU too now, having transferred large swathes of it to Brussels. We aren't allowed to negotiate our own trade deals, the EU does that for us. How is that influence?
 
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An election pledge if they won the election - which they didn't and he had to compromise over issues when in a coalition, which is perfectly normal.

Compromising would have been keeping the student fees system as it was, not completely reversing his position to support an overhaul of the entire university funding system which, as it turns out, is going to end up costing both the taxpayer and the student even more in the long run.
 
So? He said they wouldn't accept it :rolleyes: .....I'm sorry but people are criticising Clegg for not keeping his word over something he had no control over - An election pledge if they won the election - which they didn't and he had to compromise over issues when in a coalition, which is perfectly normal. And then saying Farage is a man of his word when he didn't even resign when he promised he would, something he has full control over. No-one can 'stop' you resigning just by saying we don't accept your resignation.

Daniel Hannan is also trying to get booted out of his cushy number. Is he also untrustworthy?
 
You could equally argue the SNP who are pro Independence but massively pro-EU membership are the same.

They would have to be, and then kiss the pound goodbye. I'm talking about sovereignty, not economics, which is a big unknown anyway. Nobody can say for certain what will or would happen.

You can say the same about Ireland, culture, language, and whatnot. But when it comes to sovereignty and independence, 'we can, but you can't'.

Scotland being out of the deal would weaken what would remain of the UK greatly. It's not about economics, or Scotland's interests, it's about England not feeling so great.

Just saying, there's a lot of people running around being completely tone-deaf to what sovereignty and independence means, and what the consequences could mean if it turns sour. Don't think it will, realistically. England might even be better off. They don't have the Euro currency dilema anyway. Anyone else wanting out, could not do it so easily.
 
So? He said they wouldn't accept it :rolleyes: .....I'm sorry but people are criticising Clegg for not keeping his word over something he had no control over - An election pledge if they won the election - which they didn't and he had to compromise over issues when in a coalition, which is perfectly normal. And then saying Farage is a man of his word when he didn't even resign when he promised he would, something he has full control over. No-one can 'stop' you resigning just by saying we don't accept your resignation.

So tendering your resignation is resigning, he did what he promised to do. The UKIP NEC then unanimously rejected his resignation - there's no way Farage could have known for sure that was going to happen. This wouldn't be the first time a resignation was rejected and the resignee was persuaded to stay on.

As for Clegg - he did have control over the issue of tuition fees, he could have refused to join the coalition. The LibDems made tuition fees a cornerstone of their 2010 election campaign, and gave it up as soon as the Tories waved a few juicy ministerial briefcases under their noses. Feel sorry for the decent LibDem MPs who lost their seats, but collaborating with the Conservatives was a very poor decision that will consign that party to history imo.
 
So tendering your resignation is resigning, he did what he promised to do. The UKIP NEC then unanimously rejected his resignation - there's no way Farage could have known for sure that was going to happen. This wouldn't be the first time a resignation was rejected and the resignee was persuaded to stay on.

lol, he said he would quit, he didn't. It's extremely weak and lame to give the excuse 'they wouldn't accept it'

As for Clegg - he did have control over the issue of tuition fees, he could have refused to join the coalition. The LibDems made tuition fees a cornerstone of their 2010 election campaign, and gave it up as soon as the Tories waved a few juicy ministerial briefcases under their noses. Feel sorry for the decent LibDem MPs who lost their seats, but collaborating with the Conservatives was a very poor decision that will consign that party to history imo.

He could have refused to join the coalition, but fortunately some people see the bigger picture and know it's better to give up on some policies just so you can get other policies in. The main one being the meteoric rise in Personal Allowance bringing millions of low paid workers out of the tax regime.

The coalition (in my and lots of other peoples opinion) was the best Govt we have had in years and when in a coalition you work together and compromise. The Tories didn't get everything they wanted and nor did the Lib Dems.....that's democracy!
 
The rest of it that isn't a few cherry picked examples of things that didn't go our way to then extrapolate into saying we get nothing or have no influence.

We managed to stop the punitive tariffs on cheap Chinese steel....

Do you honestly think the Tories would have been able to resist putting punitive tariffs on cheap Chinese steel if Her Majesty's Government was responsible for policing trade in and out of the UK? If the Business Secretary had to stand up at the Despatch Box and explain to MPs why he'd taken the decision to allow the Chinese to undercut the British steel industry?
 
Do you honestly think the Tories would have been able to resist putting punitive tariffs on cheap Chinese steel if Her Majesty's Government was responsible for policing trade in and out of the UK?

Yep, absolutely, for exactly the same reasons they did anyway. Because China has all the money for investing and we are sucking up to them

If the Business Secretary had to stand up at the Despatch Box and explain to MPs why he'd taken the decision to allow the Chinese to undercut the British steel industry?

Then he would have done with the usual political ******** speak and you would have done what? Grumbled and done nothing. Or add it to the long list of other reasons you won't vote for them at the next election.....which all get wiped out by the electorate when they give the tax giveaway budget just before the election :p
 
lol, he said he would quit, he didn't. It's extremely weak and lame to give the excuse 'they wouldn't accept it'

lol no - at that level it's quite common to offer your resignation if you don't meet your targets. Gives the board a chance to consider your reasons for resigning, analyse why targets were missed and decide if there's anyone else available who could do a better job.

He could have refused to join the coalition, but fortunately some people see the bigger picture and know it's better to give up on some policies just so you can get other policies in. The main one being the meteoric rise in Personal Allowance bringing millions of low paid workers out of the tax regime.

The coalition (in my and lots of other peoples opinion) was the best Govt we have had in years and when in a coalition you work together and compromise. The Tories didn't get everything they wanted and nor did the Lib Dems.....that's democracy!

So good that the Lib Dems are now basking in the glory of an utterly brilliant 2015 general election campaign :D Goodwill towards Nick Clegg couldn't be higher amongst millennials.
 
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