But my point was that Remainers are defeating the argument that immigration will stop completely...
Example 3:58....
"If we leave the EU and immigration is dramatically stopped..."
That is a strawman, no one is claiming immigration will go to 0.
As for the claim it will reduce immigration it almost certainly will. 80% of net EU migration into Europe would stop overnight if those people had to adhere to the same conditions of entry as non-EU citizens.
Ok well I just watched Gove suggest that immigration could be brought down to the tens of thousands. In 2015 43,000 people came to the UK on the basis of family visa, ie children, wives etc of UK residents. The immigration from Non EU countries was nearly 200,000. How exactly is Brexit going to reduce immigration to the tens of thousands?
I am not suggesting anyone has claimed immigration will be 0 but the clear implicit message of the Leave campaign is that immigration will be substantially reduced. In my view that is a fallacy.
Is there a reasonable possibility we'll end up signing a free movement deal anyway in order to gain free access to the single market? Yes. Is there a reasonable possibility the size of the UK's economy will get us a deal that has a more controlled version. Yes as well.
Umm no. No country in Europe has had a deal with the EU that didn't involve free movement. Switzerland tried to change it and had a referendum to change it in response the EU has sanctioned them in various ways eg expelling all Swiss students from the Erasmus program so they couldn't go to study in other EU countries under the scheme. All the evidence from other countries suggests that the UK will not be able to get a special deal on free movement.
Well you kinda did by suggesting if they lost access to our market they'd find someone else to fill the gap, as if it was no biggie or that much disruption.
Trading conditions would have to become extremely bad for you to give up on your current biggest market in favour of looking elsewhere.
No my assertion is that if one market undergoes a drop in demand then the seller will change behaviour. That might be seeking a different market or it might be reducing supply. Its not that German car producers will suddenly choose to move their supply but if the market conditions change and demand is reduced then obviously total cars sold will drop.
In theory yes. However we also have French farmers whose biggest market is at threat. With both of them needing a good deal you can pretty much ignore the smaller states' opinion.
That is two member states out of 28. The decision will be subject to vote by all member states. You might want to look up the trade deficits run by a number of EU members with the UK. Will those countries be as averse to blocking a free trade deal and tariffs?
If you think the large states always get their way then why is the UK leaving if as a large state we can mostly get what we want?
BMW can currently trade freely in the UK with no tariffs or import limits. Ford, Honda, Nissan etc can only trade by the rules set by their respective governments.
That gives them an advantage over non-EU car manufacturers doesn't it? If it doesn't then what is the point of being in the single market at all?
The ownership of the company is neither here nor there the issue is where the production occurs. That is why Japanese cars are made in Sunderland because then they are manufactured in the EU and not subject to any restrictions in the single market. The trading rules applied to those manufacturers are the EU ones not Japanese or American.
Because you are putting forward the implication that unless you're in a free trade area within another foreign car manufacturer then somehow it would put massive trade barriers up that would impact your ability to trade. The fact the best selling car in the UK is American owned shows that isn't the case.
You are missing the point. The question of nationality of the company is not relevant. The best selling car in the UK is from an American company but I sincerely doubt many of them were manufactured in the USA. If they are built in the EU then they can be traded within the EU single market without tariffs. If the UK leaves the EU then depending on what trade arrangement is agreed with the EU there may be tariffs. In fact as far as I am aware most car imports from outside the single market are subject to a tariff so odds are post Brexit cars made in the UK would be subject to tariffs.
If EU advatages were that great, BMW, Mercedes and Citroen would be noticeably ahead in terms of sales than the likes of Ford or Honda...but they're not.
Irrelevant, all Minis are build in the UK but you still think BMW will stop selling them to us if we pull out of the EU.
I don't and have not suggested that BMW will stop selling cars in the UK. The issue is how many at what cost. My assertion is that a UK outside the EU will probably have a Tariff regime that will increase the cost of BMW cars in the UK. Micro economic theory says that if the price goes up the demand goes down and the market will adjust to find a new equilibrium and clear itself. That means fewer BMW cars sold in the UK. The wider consequence of that change is varied but that is as far as my claim goes.
