Ok well I just watched Gove suggest that immigration could be brought down to the tens of thousands. In 2015 43,000 people came to the UK on the basis of family visa, ie children, wives etc of UK residents. The immigration from Non EU countries was nearly 200,000. How exactly is Brexit going to reduce immigration to the tens of thousands?
Your implied claim was that it wouldn't reduce net migration at all, the 10's of thousands figure is clearly unachievable and won't defend it but that wasn't what we were discussing so you're shifting the goal posts.
Immigration would drop by over a third if EU citizens had to face the same conditions as non-EU migrants.
I am not suggesting anyone has claimed immigration will be 0 but the clear implicit message of the Leave campaign is that immigration will be substantially reduced. In my view that is a fallacy.
I agree but my point was SOME remainers (not you) are putting forward that straw man to knock down in the same way it was alleged that some leavers (but not me) are using the "we'll still have trade" misrepresentation. That was the only point I was making....both are equally flawed arguments.
Umm no. No country in Europe has had a deal with the EU that didn't involve free movement.
There are non-EU countries that have agreed (or are close to agreeing) free or near-free trade agreement with the EU, some of whom have smaller economies and/or smaller trade surpluses than us, without the condition of the free movement of labour though.
Why you think geographical location would trump economic power in an economic-based agreement is baffling.
Switzerland tried to change it and had a referendum to change it in response the EU has sanctioned them in various ways eg expelling all Swiss students from the Erasmus program so they couldn't go to study in other EU countries under the scheme.
Yet this is a club you want to be part of?
All the evidence from other countries suggests that the UK will not be able to get a special deal on free movement.
No it doesn't because there is no apples with apples historical precedent.
No my assertion is that if one market undergoes a drop in demand then the seller will change behaviour. That might be seeking a different market or it might be reducing supply. Its not that German car producers will suddenly choose to move their supply but if the market conditions change and demand is reduced then obviously total cars sold will drop.
I've forgotten why we should give such a massive **** about a German Car Manufacturer's profits again?????
That is two member states out of 28. The decision will be subject to vote by all member states.
You genuinely believe that Germany have no more power in the EU than Slovenia? Good luck with that.
Without the UK, France and Germany the EU would be dead in the water and you know it.
If you think the large states always get their way then why is the UK leaving if as a large state we can mostly get what we want?
I didn't say they "always" get what they want, but they get things that would badly effect their economy otherwise. Besides, why would the other members care about an agreement that included free trade on cars when they don't make them anyway.
Why would a Romanian farmer who sells nothing to the UK want to impose tariffs on his French counterpart's ability to do so?
The ownership of the company is neither here nor there the issue is where the production occurs. That is why Japanese cars are made in Sunderland because then they are manufactured in the EU and not subject to any restrictions in the single market. The trading rules applied to those manufacturers are the EU ones not Japanese or American.
So all a UK company has to do to circumvent the trade barriers the EU put up against a post-Brexit Britain is set up a factory in the EU. Everyone's a winner then.
I don't and have not suggested that BMW will stop selling cars in the UK. The issue is how many at what cost. My assertion is that a UK outside the EU will probably have a Tariff regime that will increase the cost of BMW cars in the UK. Micro economic theory says that if the price goes up the demand goes down and the market will adjust to find a new equilibrium and clear itself. That means fewer BMW cars sold in the UK. The wider consequence of that change is varied but that is as far as my claim goes.
Do you have shares in BMW or something?
