Poll: The EU Referendum: How Will You Vote? (June Poll)

[h4rm0ny]

It's indicative of how immigration is changing not only the look and feel of our towns and cities, but the sounds of them also. And as we all know, immigration is the main concern of huge numbers of British referendum voters.... I did try to sweeten the pill for the more sensitive with a touch of humour. As such it's totally relevant.

Our government wants immigration because half of our NHS and other vital services are filled with foreign workers as it's the only way our country can afford to maintain that level of service. Leaving the EU wont make any difference to our country's need for migrant workers.

Secondly, if we want to maintain any sort of common market access such as Norway does (the example many Leave campaigners keep throwing around) then we'd have to accept free movement as a condition of that. Otherwise we lose access. And yes, that is the way it is.

 

[Nate--IRL--]

All three enjoyed a big boost in GDP per capita when they first joined the EU, and another big boost when they joined the Euro. Yes, they suffered in the Great Recession and, yes, the Eurozone has spectacularly failed to deal responsibly with the aftermath but the overall picture of whether it has been good or bad for them is much more nuanced, which is probably why in Portugal, Italy and Spain more people have a positive view of the EU than negative, and even in Greece more people have an neutral view than negative (source)

Also, bit-by-bit, the problems in the Eurozone are being fixed. All of the PIGS nations now have positive growth, all have falling unemployment, and the Eurozone has begun to address its structural issues - not least by the ECB finally engaging quantitative easing.

Thanks for (source) It was an interesting read. It seems that the Irish are the EU's most enthusiastic citizens, despite being consistently exposed to the Anti-EU vitriol of the British Media.

It would suggest to me that the Media has less of an influence on the populaces gestalt than I'd thought.

Nate

 

[bayo000]

Somewhere with no internet?

That's a good idea, at least I won't have to read your smug posts.

 

[b0redj0rd]

Oh really? You guys really do some impressive mental gymnastics to twist theories into your own paranoid delusions.

If she was on the remain side all along, and wanted the 'ethnic vote' to go to the remain side as well, then here's a thought....

Why didn't she just campaign for remain from the start?



Of course there will be

"Meanwhile, Conservative MEP Daniel Hannan tweeted: "When I invited Sayeeda Warsi to join the Leave campaign, she declined." - Try and find something she's said about Leaving the EU before this weekend. I couldn't find ANYTHING. She's a plant, and was obviously intending on 'defecting' on the final week regardless of what happened.

Remain will stoop to any level. Look at the stuff going on with Jo Cox. Disgusting!

 

[balky12]

because its quite clear that your opinion isn't formed on what we know.
did I say anything 90% and no its not taken from any such leaflets.

just watch the video.

euro is massively different nd is unrelated to the eu referendum.

What do we actually know? 100%?

You are right it is. But the Pro-Euro camp was peddling a lot of information as fact back in the day, and none of it came to fruition.

 

[Mr Jack]

You referring to 90% of financial experts statement that has been thrown about? That was 90% of experts that replied to a Remain camp survey... not the same as 90% of all financial experts.

It was an IPSOS-Mori poll not a "Remain camp survey". It's not exactly surprising given that every major, independent, reputable economic body has come out saying Brexit would harm the UK economy.

Truth is that no one knows exactly what will happen. Both sides have presented twisted facts and figures. You can't read anything with any decent degree of certainty.

That no one knows exactly what will happen does not mean that it's impossible to predict what is likely to happen or give a good estimate of the likely impact.

Would have been interesting to know your view on adopting the Euro way back when.

This wasn't addressed to me but I'll answer it anyway: I favoured joining the Euro then and I'd favour joining it now.

 

[Glaucus]

What do we actually know? 100%?

You are right it is. But the Pro-Euro camp was peddling a lot of information as fact back in the day, and none of it came to fruition.

nice way to ignore everything.

we don't know anything to 100%
that doesn't mean we don't know likely outcome on many things, and it doesn't mean you can make up any scenario to support your view.

 

[McBain]

If the vote is Leave I'll probably be out of here as soon as possible.

Course you will.

That the Leave side really has nothing but lies that they pose as fact.

lol. 1/10.

One of the main elements for leave has been immigration figures. Nothing but fact there, no need to lie about it.

 

[balky12]

It was an IPSOS-Mori poll not a "Remain camp survey". It's not exactly surprising given that every major, independent, reputable economic body has come out saying Brexit would harm the UK economy.

That no one knows exactly what will happen does not mean that it's impossible to predict what is likely to happen or give a good estimate of the likely impact.

This wasn't addressed to me but I'll answer it anyway: I favoured joining the Euro then and I'd favour joining it now.

What is meant by harm? We will be worst off than we are today? Or we will be worst off against another simulation where Britain remains in the EU?

That is interesting. Despite all the scaremongering of what will happen if we didn't adopt the Euro? With none of it happening? Despite the only thing that kept us afloat during the crunch was the fact that we could devalue our own currency?

How about the UK's love for home owning (for better or for worse) compared to the rest of the EU? A small interest rate increase would have a much bigger effect on our economy than most of the EU. Aware that as it currently stands this isn't the case. ~0% ECB atm?

 

[balky12]

nice way to ignore everything.

we don't know anything to 100%
that doesn't mean we don't know likely outcome on many things, and it doesn't mean you can make up any scenario to support your view.

How have I ignored everything? Few in depth posts as to my reasoning over last couple pages. Just because my view differs from yours doesn't make me wrong or lack 'basic understanding' does it? C'mon dude.

Make up a scenario? That is exactly what everyone is doing? Future predictions are just that. Guesstimates.

Ok so the UK might be worst off if we leave and the EU goes on to be this perfect utopia. What if we leave and other EU members decide they want a referendum? What if there is then a Frexit? Or a Spaxit? have all these scenarios been accounted for?

What if we stay and the same happens? So now we are committed to a crumbling EU?

Too many variables for the experts to consider let alone the average Joe...

If you're some kind of super human and never wrong then hats off to you. Feel free to tell me 'I told you so' in the future.

 

[bayo000]

Course you will.

Yeah don't think it will go down well with other half.
Plus I've been there and done that so not sure I want to start from "scratch" again.

 

[One More Solo]

I see the thickening Baroness Warsi has done her disingenuous bit and made a dramatic last minute swap to supporting the Remain campaigners. Quite why parties haven't cottoned on to the fact a lot of these token ethnics they parade as unusual supporters of their cause often bite the hand that feeds them I don't know. Better to have mutterings of "racist party" than the ignominy of this dreadful woman having air time proclaiming you as such as she kicks you in the groin on her way out. They say there is no such thing as bad publicity at a certain stage in one's career...

"Token ethnics"? What an odious thing to say.

Leads fairly neatly to something I was thinking today, which is that the Leave campaign have totally failed to engage the moderate vote as polling day approaches. I was open to the arguments of both sides but Leave's constant pandering towards those who are seemingly afraid of brown people has made my mind up. I always thought calling Farage racist was a very lazy slur, but that picture of him in front of the bus suggests I was incorrect.

 

[FirebarUK]

because its quite clear that your opinion isn't formed on what we know.
did I say anything 90% and no its not taken from any such leaflets.

just watch the video.

euro is massively different nd is unrelated to the eu referendum.

The Euro (single currency) is not unrelated to the EU referendum, because on our current trajectory and with a remain vote this *will* continue to come up and I don't think anyone could dispute that entry into the single currency is more likely to occur in future given a "Remain" scenario.

 

[Nate--IRL--]

The future trajectory is tighter integration, no doubt about that. It is the only way for the EU to solve the infrastructural problems it has.

Nate

 

[kibblerok]

Is it possible to have a new poll to see where things currently stand?

 

[platypus]

You'll get the new poll early Friday morning .

 

[Arazi]

Oh really? You guys really do some impressive mental gymnastics to twist theories into your own paranoid delusions.

If she was on the remain side all along, and wanted the 'ethnic vote' to go to the remain side as well, then here's a thought....

Why didn't she just campaign for remain from the start?



Of course there will be

So you don't think an unusually quiet MP (Warsi) has just been rolled out to say what she has said to suddenly pull some more ethnic voters because the remain camp are getting scared?

It is politics smart arse, anything can and will happen and anything can and will be said by either side, especially today and the few days before voting.

Take your head out the sand.

 

[Six6siX]

In unrelated news, I went shopping at the weekend and almost everywhere had sold out of tinfoil.

 

[FirebarUK]

The future trajectory is tighter integration, no doubt about that. It is the only way for the EU to solve the infrastructural problems it has.

Nate

As the EU experiences more problems (a lot more financial issues to come, for example), they will undoubtedly see the solution as tighter integration and acceleration of the move towards a federal Europe. It's often asked "What problem is the EU solving?", this will be seen as self-fulfilling in the future, I expect.

 

[Mr Jack]

The Euro (single currency) is not unrelated to the EU referendum, because on our current trajectory and with a remain vote this *will* continue to come up and I don't think anyone could dispute that entry into the single currency is more likely to occur in future given a "Remain" scenario.

I actually think it's more likely in a "Leave" scenario because, as it stands, we have opted out of any requirement to adopt the Euro and there is no political will in the UK to join the Euro. This means there is no realistic prospect of it happening for decades and if it does it will be because there's a solid majority of the British people calling for it.

On the other hand, if we Leave and suffer the highly predictable economic consequences I think there will be a growing clamour for a re-entry in the coming years and that we will eventually do so, however I think we will find that the current host of opt-outs and special deals that the UK currently enjoys are not on the table. When this happens the EU will rightly view the UK as an unreliable partner and want to ensure that we are well bound in, I think this will involve requiring us to join the Euro.