Poll: The EU Referendum: How Will You Vote? (May Poll)

[Skunkworks]

Isn't it a school night, Zethor?

 

[NooBish AbbZ]

I think I'm out.

 

[Jokester]

The full abstract:

First, we find that market prices are far better predictors in the period without polls than when polls were available. Second, we find that market prices of the pre-poll era predicted elections almost on par with polls following the introduction of scientific polling. Finally, when we have both market prices and polls, prices add nothing to election prediction beyond polls. To be sure, early election markets were (surprisingly) good at
extracting campaign information without scientific polling to guide them. For more recent markets, candidate prices largely follow the polls.

If bookies are not good prediction tools how were they getting it right before polls? Magic? How do you interpret the last sentence?

It states, quite clearly, that before the days of polls bookies provided accurate predictions of results, but since polls were introduced market prices follow the polls... ie one drives the other.

Send him an email, maybe he will correct the whole thing?

I'm sure the guy is perfectly happy with his undergraduate degree thesis.

So we agree that bookies are a good prediction tool, although it's not clear if they better than polls.

There's plenty of empirical date in the other links. The only debate is whether bookies make better predictions than polls.

The only major study looking at historical data you posted is the one that states bookies follow poll predictions.

The other 2 relate to a single vote, where the author in one even states that the result might be due to the way bookies adjust their odds in relation to the amount of money placed, and the other states they can't even draw any conclusion at all, which given they were using poll data from 2015 when the polls notoriously failed to be accurate doesn't exactly paint the betting markets in a good light when they were marginally better that year.

I concluded, like the article above, that this was unsurprising given that both predictions were largely driven by the same opinion poll data.

From one of the comments on that article just to re-inforce the point that current betting markets do no more than reflect the reported polls - because ultimately punters have nothing more to go on than that information.

 

[[TW]Fox]

It's called social circles. One of the reasons anecdotal evidence is so unreliable. You associate and speak with people in similar circles and generally with similar viewpoints. many people on the remain side will have a similar feeling about leave voters, being surrounded by people that will be voting remain.

It's not some secret plot to hide the truth, it's just a normal effect of who you socialize with. It's a bit worrying though how many people are already starting to call "conspiracy" in this thread though!

Exactly this. Off the top of my head I can think of nobody that I know who is voting Leave. This doesn't mean that I think Remain has it in the bag - it means I recognise that we share views with those in our social circles.

This forum is the only place I've conversed with people who wish to vote Leave.

 

[Skunkworks]

Most right-wingers are typically thicko racists.

Am I doing this right?

I don't think all right-wingers are thicko racists before anyone takes my comment out of context.

The difference is that the hard left has become mainstream, even fashionable, whereas their equivalent on the right would be considered extreme.

 

[jas72]

Yes erosion of national sovereignty is well worth not having to fill out a form every time the plane lands.

fixed

it doesn't really matter anyway if the UK votes out the UK government will immediately sign up to the EEA in full

And NO you won't get a say in that because if you vote out it will be shown that the UK public can't be trusted with serious economic matters.

 

[Caged]

The difference is that the hard left has become mainstream, even fashionable, whereas their equivalent on the right would be considered extreme.

Again, it's a matter of perception. The hard left barely exists in the UK, let alone exists in the mainstream.

 

[The_Abyss]

Close friends and family who are voting Out:

Frontline police officer
Career NHS nurse
Tax lawyer
Self-employed graphic designer
Self-employed kitchen fitter
Career NHS midwife
Self-employed consultant
Retail regional manager
Network engineer
Self-employed builder
Motorcycle mechanic
Primary school teacher
Secondary school languages teacher
5 retired people

The people above have said that they also find it rare to know someone personally who will vote Remain.

The only close friend on the fence is a guy on benefits due to long-term illness. And he's one of those people who will just vote Labour because his parents did, and their parents did etc.

A little off-topic, but why do you feel the need to categorise people by profession apart from those who are retired, the latter being lumped into one single group?

People retire at different ages from different occupations on different incomes from different sources. The way you've defined them you might as well have said 'old people'. And even that would be incorrect.

People go through 40+ years of different skills and employment, and then can go through decades of retirement. Lumping retired people into the same category is just wrong.

 

[n111ck]

To be honest if the Remain campaign was so compelling why are they having to resort to such ridiculous scare tactics?

I predict a slim Remain win with a low turn out - essentially a big vote of no confidence for the EU and absolutely nothing will change.

 

[Caged]

Neither side is innocent in the scare tactics and it's frankly embarrassing that this is how our country decides to do politics. It's the sort of stuff that we'd ridicule if other nations did it.

 

[n111ck]

True but the Remain campaign are essentially the government and also responsible for creating the referendum.

 

[Caged]

Remain are bigger than the government. As far as I can tell the more outlandish claims from both camps are coming from Tory cabinet ministers as they seem to have decided this is a great time to have a full on power struggle.

 

[V F]

Neither side is innocent in the scare tactics and it's frankly embarrassing that this is how our country decides to do politics. It's the sort of stuff that we'd ridicule if other nations did it.

Listening to Cameron it is long past debates but nothing but threats. 3% food and 5% clothes bill rises if we leave.

 

[itchy]

All I have seen is projected fear from the in campaign, you are not doing yourself any favours at all.

Higher food costs.
Lower house prices.
Increased cancer as in no cancer treatments.
Higher inflation.
Devaluation of the pound.
War in Europe.
More terrorism.
More immigration.

How about the pro EU campaign show me why we need to be in Europe, what are the benefits, how will it effect us in the near and long term future?

Fear, fear, fear... It looks bad and makes the in campaign look like clowns.

 

[adam cool dude]

All I have seen is projected fear from the in campaign, you are not doing yourself any favours at all.

Higher food costs.
Lower house prices.
Increased cancer as in no cancer treatments.
Higher inflation.
Devaluation of the pound.
War in Europe.
More terrorism.
More immigration.

How about the pro EU campaign show me why we need to be in Europe, what are the benefits, how will it effect us in the near and long term future?

Fear, fear, fear... It looks bad and makes the in campaign look like clowns.

I mean shock horror look at Japan. They do it alone and get on just fine. Especially considering how much its neighbours hate them. Australia is another one. Ironically having been to those two places they are the two places I would most want to live and I have been all across mainland Europe and America. You stay in Europe you are always going to be in Germany's shadow as they are at the centre of mainland Europe. We are an island which is of no similarity apart from the fact we are closest to mainland Europe. We have more in common with Australia/America/Japan and they are thousands of miles away.

Immigration is not a bother to me. I live in Boston Lincolnshire which has its claim to fame of being the most diverse place culturally outside of London and I have gotten used to it. In fact I like some aspects of the diverse culture. For me it is a simple case of making decisions for our country by our people.

 

[scorza]

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...unless-power-self-serving-elite.html?ITO=1490

Thought this was quite interesting, former senior aide to the PM Steve Hilton confirms what many people have suspected for a long time:

A decision to leave the EU is not without risk. But I believe it is the ideal and idealistic choice for our times: taking back power from arrogant, unaccountable, hubristic elites and putting it where it belongs – in people’s hands.

Interestingly he also raises the prospect of the EU punishing Britain if we vote to stay in. One of the cornerstones of the remain argument is that they'll punish us if we vote to Leave. Personally I think as much as they'd like to punish us if we Leave (Juncker basically confirmed this on Friday) they'll have a reduced capability to punish us if we are no longer subservient to them.

 

[Tunney]

I mean shock horror look at Japan. They do it alone and get on just fine.

Japan's economy has been stagnating for a long time. They're on the cusp of a serious crisis thanks to their ageing population.

We are an island which is of no similarity apart from the fact we are closest to mainland Europe. We have more in common with Australia/America/Japan and they are thousands of miles away.

We have more in common with Japan than Germany?

 

[[TW]Fox]

I mean shock horror look at Japan. They do it alone and get on just fine.

They've presided over the longest period of economic stagnation in modern history and are a very different economy - far more manufacturing than us.

Australia is another one.

Huge natural resource reserves.

 

[Metallifux]

You'd think this guy had been reading this forum, but it's obviously just a remainer trait.

https://benredsell.co.uk/2016/05/23/eu-ref-why-ive-changed-my-mind/

 

[bayo000]

All I have seen is projected fear from the in campaign, you are not doing yourself any favours at all.

Higher food costs.
Lower house prices.
Increased cancer as in no cancer treatments.
Higher inflation.
Devaluation of the pound.
War in Europe.
More terrorism.
More immigration.

How about the pro EU campaign show me why we need to be in Europe, what are the benefits, how will it effect us in the near and long term future?

Fear, fear, fear... It looks bad and makes the in campaign look like clowns.

Pretty sure the last 2 are Biggest points on Leaves project fear. Millions of Turks, criminals and terrorists will come here was the message from one of main leave campaigners only a day ago. Keep up.

Other than the war and cancer the other points are quite likely to happen at least in short term. Hell the pound is already devalued due to referendum.