http://whatukthinks.org/eu/opinion-polls/poll-of-polls/
Last 6 polls taken on average show dead level.
Poll: The EU Referendum: How Will You Vote? (May Poll)
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http://whatukthinks.org/eu/opinion-polls/poll-of-polls/
Last 6 polls taken on average show dead level.
Caporegime
I have never said that we can't trade without trade deals. None-the-less having trade deals does help us trade and my point was about the impact of uncertainty generated by on-going negotiations not the trade deals themselves so going "but we could trade anyway" is not much of a comeback.
I'm not really sure how you think this is a response to the line from my post you're quoted above it. Yeah, we'll carry on having our currency and we'll carry on having some influence; that influence will be less than it would be if we stay within the EU and retain our influence over the other countries inside the EU via EU mechanisms and across the world as magnified by the EU.
I don't think they're a "problem"; I think they're a huge benefit. While it is true that skilled workers can get work anywhere, this doesn't compare to the ease of the right to work. Visas are costly (for example, an Indian girl in my lab had to pay over a thousand pounds to gain the right to work in the UK and pay taxes to support our state), often tedious or difficult to obtain and - because of their conditional nature - provide no stability or security. Also, while skilled workers may obtain visas for themselves with relative ease, obtaining visas for your partner to work and for your family is typically an additional challenge. Finally, none of this helps any British people who don't count as highly skilled who currently enjoy the huge benefit of freedom to live and work.
Really? You don't think the Tories would get rid of it, given a chance. You do realise that it's listed by some of them as "Brussel's interference" and a reason some of them want to leave?
This may be so, but the establishment is basically implying that sticking with the EU won't be that great and that the alternative is a big gamble.
It makes people lean towards taking the gamble...."what if we win?" You need to tell people they are already winning if you want them to stay.
Caporegime
This is a classic example of a house effect. The Express is only reporting on it's own polls whereas the whatukthinks.org site is taking a range of polls. If you look at the Wikipedia page you can see that it's true that the last six ICM online polls show a Brexit lead but that the last six from any pollster listed show a 4-2 mix of Brexit or Bremain. More interestingly still, if you just look at ICM you can see their online polls showing a Brexit lead but their telephone polls still showing a solid Bremain lead.
The difference in telephone and online polls has been oft-commented upon and it suggests that polling may be unreliable.
On a lighter note I was amused by this from Newsthump: Germany vetoed Cameron but would definitely give us the deal we want, insists IDS
Iain Duncan Smith has claimed that Germany effectively vetoed David Cameron’s plans for an immigration ‘brake’, but would roll over and show it’s tummy when the time comes to negotiate a trade deal with an independent UK.
Duncan Smith told reporters that David Cameron chose to remove mention of an immigration brake because Germany would have vetoed it anyway, but that Germany will do precisely as it’s told when the time comes to negotiate a trade deal with the EU when we leave.
Duncan Smith told reporters that David Cameron chose to remove mention of an immigration brake because Germany would have vetoed it anyway, but that Germany will do precisely as it’s told when the time comes to negotiate a trade deal with the EU when we leave.
Soldato
I'm a Brexiter, but I do agree that the remain side are doing a pretty poor job, I think that its because they are always calling to "remain", instead of saying we should have increased engagement with the EU. The only argument that it leaves them with is that the status quo is ok, and that we will try to improve in the future - few people actually believe these things.
We should either go the whole hog, and get really involved in the EU so that we can actually have a say in its form and function (right now we don't, we are consistently outvoted and marginalised), or leave and do things ourselves.
There is no vision or inspiration to be derived from the status quo.
The article words it so as to say that IDS thinks Germany will roll over immediately, but thats not quite what has been said. A vote to leave gives the UK a strong position for negotiation.
In the last talks it was well known that Cameron wanted really to stay in the EU,and so it didn't really have many cards to play in the negotiation. A vote to leave puts us in a far stronger position.
Caporegime
On the question of polling: does anyone know if there's ever been a referendum in which the polls accurately predicted the result or favoured the side arguing for change? In the 2014 Scottish Referendum, the 2011 AV referendum, the 2015 Irish Gay Marriage referendum, and the 1995 Quebec referendum the polls all predicted a higher support for change and a lower support for the status quo than the actual polling returned. This effect has been around +/- 5% (i.e. a 10% swing to the status quo).
If we applied such a correction to the UK polls it would suggest that the Remain side has a solid lead of around 10%.
If we applied such a correction to the UK polls it would suggest that the Remain side has a solid lead of around 10%.
Caporegime
Eh, it's a Newsthump article, don't take it too seriously.
That said I find the idea that the UK will be in a strong position post-leave rather laughable. Our position will start weak and get weaker as our economy suffers from the uncertainty of the negotiations and we approach the two year mark.
Soldato
Just had to pay a customs fee charge of £11.47 on something worth $50 ordered from the states.I really hope that we stay in the EU.
But we ARE in the EU at the moment and you paid that anyway !
But everone knows that if we leave it would have been at least 100 quid.
Soldato
David Cameron has announced government backing for tinned Halal Pork to be sold in supermarkets to finance the building of more Mosques.
Quoting the PM
"Let me make this absolutely clear.. This is PRECISELY the kind of private initiative that we in the government completely support. Further more, if we exit the EU, they will impose a huge tariff on sunlight as the EU have claimed rights to the suns rays in a new treaty, that we were not privy to beforehand"
Quoting the PM
"Let me make this absolutely clear.. This is PRECISELY the kind of private initiative that we in the government completely support. Further more, if we exit the EU, they will impose a huge tariff on sunlight as the EU have claimed rights to the suns rays in a new treaty, that we were not privy to beforehand"
Quick question.
When are the debates on TV? Are there any?
The spectator one should have been on TV imo, was balanced had a very strong 6 debating, audience Q&A and Andrew Neil was hosting.
We have around 40 days left and. I haven't heard of any, I only heard about the spectator one by seeing a sponsored Facebook ad.
When are the debates on TV? Are there any?
The spectator one should have been on TV imo, was balanced had a very strong 6 debating, audience Q&A and Andrew Neil was hosting.
We have around 40 days left and. I haven't heard of any, I only heard about the spectator one by seeing a sponsored Facebook ad.
Soldato
Here's one (just posted on FB)
http://order-order.com/2016/05/09/crispin-blunt-comes-out-for-brexit-live-on-daily-politics/
[edit]
Haha.. love this comment from that link
http://order-order.com/2016/05/09/crispin-blunt-comes-out-for-brexit-live-on-daily-politics/
[edit]
Haha.. love this comment from that link
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Soldato
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I'd have to pay rip-off custom charges more often if we left the EU.
But you'd get to buy duty free products again on short trips to France or Spain. Swings and roundabouts
Buying some duty free fags, booze and perfume when I go on holiday is hardly comparable to having the whole EU trading block at my fingertips on the Internet where I can purchase any item I want duty free
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