Poll: The EU Referendum: How Will You Vote? (May Poll)

[Caged]

Finally got around to reading up about the EU…

…Now I'm a firm out. I realised its the most undemocratic system in the world!

Did you do all of your research by reading The Express and scorza's posts?

The effects on productivity and wages that come from having far fewer unskilled migration is never mentioned either.

You're going to have to explain this one to me. Why would productivity increase (I assume when you say it will change you mean increase) as the result of having fewer people available to fill each unskilled vacancy?

 

[datalol-jack]

Using the treasuries statistics, the only accurate thing to say is 6.2% smaller compared to staying in by 2030.

Doesn't make such a good headline though.

Thats without going into the flaws in the calculations itself, which are beyond complicated.
LSE data has estimates ranging from 1.5% to 9.5% smaller, and doesn't attempt to estimate the effects of a number of changes which the brexit campaign says will benefit the UK economy.

Most calculations assume that leaving the EU would lead to lower productivity growth, which forms a major part of the drop in GDP.
This is because they estimate that foreign investment would fall by a rather large amount. However there isn't much evidence to suggest that this is guaranteed to be the case. The effects on productivity and wages that come from having far fewer unskilled migration is never mentioned either.

Depending on what variables you plug into these models, you end up with GDP changes ranging from small-medium positive, to large negative. All major institutions assume a similar set of variables, as they come from the same schools of thought.

My take is that we'll see a small short term drop, and after a number of years we'll be growing faster than we would be inside the EU.

In an ideal theoretical world, you can plug in a lot of Brexit assumptions and come up with some interesting, magical things, such as some or all of the following:

• Tax adjustments, drops in public spending or borrowing to address the effects of Brexit
• Unilateral dropping of tariffs
• Attack on social security and worker rights to increase competitiveness
• Increased productivity
• Services in particular performing at the same or better level than they do now; especially if the economy isn't rebalanced any time soon post-Brexit
• Good and comprehensive trade deals with Europe, the USA, India, China and South Korea at the very least to even the keel
• Sustained economic migration levels (yes, contrary to common belief -- even just allowing skilled migration would still keep the levels at 200-250K net)
• Sustained population growth and demographic skew towards younger workers
• After an initial jump to ~10% unemployment, healthy job creation and decreasing unemployment and benefit payouts
• Sustained FDI
• Sacrifices in economic sectors which cannot be subsidised post-Brexit and in the face of new foreign competition
• Minor or eliminated current account deficit
• Same or slightly higher trade deficit
• No subsequent stagnation or further economic shocks
• Steady growth in Asia and the Americas, particularly without China stalling; and limited impact of Brexit on our erstwhile EU partners
• No change of the government's key economic policies, whatever party is in power, for a decade or more
• Favourable treatment of the pound, the nation's credit worthiness, general market confidence in us
• People taking the above with good cheer, stiff upper lip and for the greater good
• Periods of greater growth both outdoing the lost decades and being at a sufficient incidence and level to keep this up; you know, to actually make anyone materially better off
• Controlled inflation

Now the list does go on and grows increasingly more fanciful, without going into the calculations themselves, depending on whom you choose to be your Brexit economic guru.

Sure, some of these broad measures can be envisaged under a Tory government that has a secure majority and is united, but far from all, and the Brexit 8 is far from unequivocal on the subject. While you also have to account that when push comes to shove, without being facetious, 2/3 of the population would find such an economic offer a rather unpalatable dish if it were fully revealed as the plan for Brexit Britain before the poll.

 

[campbell]

Did you get that from the ridiculous Brexit the Movie

Just googled it. Will watch tomorrow.

 

[datalol-jack]

Just googled it. Will watch tomorrow.

If you do, take some of these for the road:

If you like discussions between the two camps: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/art...zWNBk9/the-big-questions-on-the-eu-referendum.

If you want fact-checks: https://fullfact.org/europe/.

If you want thoughtful research on Brexit: http://ner.sagepub.com/. Click on the cover.

And don't forget the select committees from Parliament directly:
http://www.parliament.uk/hleu
http://www.parliament.uk/business/c...iament-2015/uks-eu-referendum-evidence-15-16/

From the accused themselves:
https://bookshop.europa.eu/en/home/

 

[Tunney]

 

[ReltonBFD]

Again morons think we are leaving the continent, how many times its the ****ing forced political union.

 

[ReltonBFD]

Competition over Country.

 

[Insanties_birth]

Assuming you mean meps, how much less do they do than Westminster mps?

I think the main problem is knowledge of the system, most people don't even know who there english MEP's are never mind the foreign ones. It's like expecting quality democracy if we had a 1 or 2% voter turnout in national elections. The flaw with the EU accountability argument is that they could be just as accountable but it's no where near as approachable or understood by your regular person so scrutiny, voting and all the other parts are marred. We could chalk it down to the usual 'oh but it's there fault for not being informed' but the EU has been around for a while nwo so it begs the question why they are so blended into the background rather than upfront.

Democracy typically works on public opinion and consensus (not entirely of course but it should reflect public opinion somewhat) with issues being raised and political figures contacted where needed for input on local issues but I can honestly say that I think at least 8 / 10 people I'd ask wouldn't know any of the processes, MEP's or whatnot. Democracy in the shadows (regardless of a few being aware of the processes) is usually not real democracy. Lack of visibility, lack of public backlash (as the public don't know who they are or what they are doing to be able to voice concerns) and the distance away from most voters (operating in other countries of course) makes it difficult to expect the same quality of democracy. Think of it like a tax that you can get a rebate or benefit to help reduce the cost of, if that is then poorly explained, difficult to apply for, not known to the majority of the public etc. then sure, the system is in place but the system is not working as intended and lacks effectiveness based sheerly on other factors. MEP's are less accountable as they are not in the view of the public and there policies had in the past been less visible on the media and whatnot.

Again morons think we are leaving the continent, how many times its the ****ing forced political union.

It's easy to see how the in camp has relied on pure lies and propaganda just to make the EU sound better and confuse some of the ultra liberal idiots of society Oh no, gonna have to sail away from Europe but that will help save us from all the wars in Europe with Putin and Al Baghdadi along with trade stopping instantly in our isalationist and suddenly racist and powerless island lol.

 

[Tunney]

Again morons think we are leaving the continent, how many times its the ****ing forced political union.

It's slippery slope though. First we'll be out of the EU, then the European Court of Human Rights, then the Europa League, then Eurovision, then our kids will be stopped from visiting Euro Disney. Arron Banks isn't going to stop until Britain is physically dragged away from the continent.

Have you considered that the banner is a joke?

 

[Mr Jack]

Again morons think we are leaving the continent, how many times its the ****ing forced political union.

The term 'Europe' has been used in common parlance as shorthand for the European Union for many years, and on both sides of the argument. Objecting to its use is pointless pedantry.

 

[thenewoc]

I don't think anyone knows for sure what the future holds. We've had examples of the government not being able to successfully forecast growth or prevent banks from playing fast and loose. Also, no one building this EU beast thought that they would need to have secure borders or a refugee process in place to manage this at these borders? If your intention for building the EU was success and it's hard to see how it wouldn't be then it seems astounding some of the stuff that seems to get completely overlooked. Same goes for the whole Greek debacle. Once opened up to weaker countries for the sake of more export territories rather than good financial due diligence etc then it's doomed just like the ERM was.

Whilst I can't predict the future my instinct tells me we need less layers of government and will benefit in the longer term from having a flatter organisation that can make decisions quicker and focus on what's in the UK's best interests.

Bad enough we now have all these devolved parliaments or assemblies on top of local councils and authorities. Have we seen any reduction in westminster MP's? All these layers have to be paid for from taxes! Do all these extra layers get the job done quicker or better or just protract things whilst more bickering over how the cake gets sliced?

Basically governments look to get bigger or bureaucracy breeds bureaucracy. Probably why nationalisation of industries never works as it's incompatible with a fiscally responsible business model. When in doubt look to the private sector and cut the fat, eg the EU.

I just think people should follow their gut instinct in what they think will be best for the UK in the longer term since we don't know if we'll get another chance of a referendum.

 

[MookJong]

I'm in complete limbo now that I have done more research. I think it's very difficult for the average person to not only get clear and impartial facts but also actually understand the inner workings of the EU and where it is heading.

The topic is almost too big and wide reaching. I imagine those working for the EU don't know exactly what the future holds never mind us.

The only logical option is a third way where the EU is reformed. Clearly this is not on the cards but that is the only option I am interested in. So does that mean I should vote to stay in the very slim chance there will be reform. Or should I leave to escape the negative aspects of the EU.

Very difficult...

 

[Freakbro]

The term 'Europe' has been used in common parlance as shorthand for the European Union for many years, and on both sides of the argument. Objecting to its use is pointless pedantry.

And who are they calling the idiots?

 

[Hades]

I'm in complete limbo now that I have done more research. I think it's very difficult for the average person to not only get clear and impartial facts but also actually understand the inner workings of the EU and where it is heading.

The topic is almost too big and wide reaching. I imagine those working for the EU don't know exactly what the future holds never mind us.

The only logical option is a third way where the EU is reformed. Clearly this is not on the cards but that is the only option I am interested in. So does that mean I should vote to stay in the very slim chance there will be reform. Or should I leave to escape the negative aspects of the EU.

Very difficult...

Similar position here. But I feel that an IN vote won't lead to reform. We have been through the economic bailouts, bear Grexit, migration problems, Britain trying to renegotuate before our own vote and nothing material has changed. It won't do. A vote for IN is to continue on the current path. A vote for OUT is into the unknown. Neither are desirable.

 

[thenewoc]

I also think if the EU didn't think we'd make a success being out they wouldn't be campaigning so hard for us to stay. Imagine we break free and not only do well from it but escape whatever EU disaster happens next. How many countries in the EU will see it as their cue to get out too.

 

[Naff8000]

Just what exactly do our big firms get out of being in the EU other than the free trade deal? I'm sure there are numerous reasons but I don't have a clue. If we left then surely we would keep the free trade as with Norway?

 

[thenewoc]

Just what exactly do our big firms get out of being in the EU other than the free trade deal? I'm sure there are numerous reasons but I don't have a clue. If we left then surely we would keep the free trade as with Norway?

Lower wage bills from free movement in the EU resulting from an over supply of workers.

 

[Danthus]

Using the treasuries statistics, the only accurate thing to say is 6.2% smaller compared to staying in by 2030.

Osborne can't get him numbers right year on year never mind predict 15 years ahead.

That report is rubbish.

 

[teejay73]

Just what exactly do our big firms get out of being in the EU other than the free trade deal? I'm sure there are numerous reasons but I don't have a clue. If we left then surely we would keep the free trade as with Norway?

It wouldn't work like Norway though. A big part of leaving is so that we can have control over immigration. If we followed Norway's example then we would have to adopt the single market, which would mean accepting the freedom of movement.

We would have to negotiate with the EU on different terms and accept tariffs on our exported goods, which would make them less desirable to consumers. That said how much of our current export to the EU is actually sold there is an unknown due to the Rotterdam effect. I would guess it's a lot less than the 46% suggested.

 

[izzop]

I'm in complete limbo now that I have done more research. I think it's very difficult for the average person to not only get clear and impartial facts but also actually understand the inner workings of the EU and where it is heading.

The topic is almost too big and wide reaching. I imagine those working for the EU don't know exactly what the future holds never mind us.

The only logical option is a third way where the EU is reformed. Clearly this is not on the cards but that is the only option I am interested in. So does that mean I should vote to stay in the very slim chance there will be reform. Or should I leave to escape the negative aspects of the EU.

Very difficult...

Unfortunately I feel this is very much the case, that the future of the EU is an unknown. Possibly not so much in the short term, but very much so in the mid to long term and my gut feel is based on the way things are and look at present is that it certainly won't be for the better.

Similar position here. But I feel that an IN vote won't lead to reform. We have been through the economic bailouts, bear Grexit, migration problems, Britain trying to renegotuate before our own vote and nothing material has changed. It won't do. A vote for IN is to continue on the current path. A vote for OUT is into the unknown. Neither are desirable.

A lot of people feel that a reform would be to the benefit of the EU, however, I strongly feel that this just won't happen and those at the heart of the EU certainly wouldn't want it to.

Normally to bring on change or reform you're better off doing so from within, unfortunately for the UK I feel this is a lost cause. Yes, there would be plenty of carrot dangling, false promises and the right noises coming from the EU, but nothing would change. Just look at what Cameron came back with as a case example.

Also, voting IN is a vote to fully adopt all that is EU and what it stands for. The UK can't expect to vote IN and then turn around afterwards to the EU and expect them to entertain anything but.