I know this is the general perception and is oft repeated, but apart from some small depression of wages at the bottom end of the scale, and in localised areas, the actual evidence doesn't seem to point to this effect happening in general.
Poll: The EU Referendum: How Will You Vote? (May Poll)
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I know this is the general perception and is oft repeated, but apart from some small depression of wages at the bottom end of the scale, and in localised areas, the actual evidence doesn't seem to point to this effect happening in general.
Caporegime
Soldato
Yeah agree but the number of people available that are happy working on NMW means any new jobs can be offered out at that and be filled so wages don't increase. In a world of supply/demand if there was a shortage at the lower pay levels people would increase wages to fill places where needed
Are the LSE impartial given they have received EU funding?
Stuart Rose, the leader of BSE is on camera saying limiting immigration would boost wages.
The idea that immigration doesn't lower wages is questionable.
Does supply and demand not apply to the labour market?
Stuart Rose, the leader of BSE is on camera saying limiting immigration would boost wages.
The idea that immigration doesn't lower wages is questionable.
Does supply and demand not apply to the labour market?
No of course they can't be, they would be unlikley to bite the hand that feeds them.
Caporegime
Every reputable university in the UK receives EU funding; ignoring all academic opinion because of that is stupid. In any case:
CEP’s Brexit work is funded by the UK Economic and
Social Research Council. As a whole the CEP, receives
less than 5% of its funding from the European Union.
The EU funding is from the European Research Council
for academic projects and not for general funding or
consultancy.
Social Research Council. As a whole the CEP, receives
less than 5% of its funding from the European Union.
The EU funding is from the European Research Council
for academic projects and not for general funding or
consultancy.
He's wrong. The NIER review estimates that Brexit would lead to wages being 3.1-3.8% lower in real terms under a FTA arrangement and 4.6-6.3% lower under a WTO arrangement by 2030.
Not naively applied, no. The reason for this is very simple: people in employment create demand for more people in employment. As always, empirical evidence trumps theorising and the empirical evidence is emphatic: immigration has not lowered wages.
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Competition over Country.
You cannot draw any conclusions from that photo, for all you know it's just humour. But I guess people want it to play to the dumb scouser stereotype.
Mr Jack answered that one days ago, if you look at the % of EU funding they get compared to their overall budget, it's tiny, so not really the hold over them you are inferring.
But it wouldn't be like you to be disingenuous with the facts now to support your agenda would it....
Soldato
Its not so simple. Skilled immigration tends to increase productivity, and consequently wages, as it is easier for companies to fill positions like you say.
The challenges come when you have a large labour supply, and particularly when you have a large supply on low skilled labour.
When company a company wants to scale up or become more efficient, it has a choice between investing in skills of existing staff; getting new technology; other productivity improvements such as process overhaul; or hiring more staff to pick up the slack.
A large labour supply means that this equation is more often slanted towards hiring a new person.
This has the effect of companies delaying investments that would improve productivity.
This effect is particularly acute when talking about low skilled labour, as the labour is cheaper in general, and the technology investments tends to be very expensive in comparison with the cost of staff.
This means that a large amount of immigration, and unskilled immigration in particular, depresses productivity growth and wages. This suppression is not uniform, it effects those on low incomes much more than those on higher incomes - who may in fact still be experiencing the positive effects of immigration.
http://restud.oxfordjournals.org/content/80/1/145.abstract
Taking a macro view of wages doesn't tell the whole picture.
@ Judgeneo
Yes, that's what the LSE report says as well iirc, and what I said above, there is some depression in the lower end of the wage scale but overall there is little effect positively or negatively.
To be fair, as an unintended consequence I would say the NMW has had an effect on depressing wages at the lower end of the scale as well, as a lot of employers use it as the maximum wage rather than the minimum.
Yes, that's what the LSE report says as well iirc, and what I said above, there is some depression in the lower end of the wage scale but overall there is little effect positively or negatively.
To be fair, as an unintended consequence I would say the NMW has had an effect on depressing wages at the lower end of the scale as well, as a lot of employers use it as the maximum wage rather than the minimum.
Overall it doesn't...there is some depression at the low end and some increase at the top end....so on average, no it doesn't.
And the caveat of the lower end wage depression has been admitted many many times on here when talking about this issue
Caporegime
There is some research that find a small negative effect of immigration on the wages of lower skilled workers - this is true - however the literature is hardly uniform on this (see pages 9-12 of the report I linked above) and the larger scale empirical studies have generally found no effect.
Moreover, even if the effect is real the predicted damaging effect of Brexit on real wages is much larger than the largest negative effects found in any reputable study so choosing Brexit to limit immigration is very likely to have a negative affect on wage levels.
Anyway Oldcoals, where is your evidence for this term 'over supply of labour' ?
If we had an oversupply of labour that is depressing wages, then we would have a rising unemployment figure, which we don't have.
So it might be a great soundbite, but can you back it up as it doesn't seem to have any actual basis.
If we had an oversupply of labour that is depressing wages, then we would have a rising unemployment figure, which we don't have.
So it might be a great soundbite, but can you back it up as it doesn't seem to have any actual basis.
Caporegime
No, the LSE study finds that there is no significantly significant correlation between levels of local immigration and changes in wages among the low skilled UK born population and what correlation there is points to wages actually being increased by immigration.
But those people who are seeing their wages depressed, your statement isn't much comfort.
But when making national decisons, you have to look at the bigger picture, no? Not just 1 part.
Also, in case you missed it (as I lost connection) on what basis are you determining we have an over supply of cheap labour?
Cameron should have held to his word and told the EU it's bye bye unless he got what he went to negotiate. I could understand the EU not bending to the will of the UK because then anyone could start making demands. However it would have set a chain of events into action allowing other countries to call out what they see wrong with the EU and actually get some change.
Cameron could win this ballot no problem if he positioned himself that the EU still has a long way to go and we will fight for change, but need to stay in. He has been far too forgiving of it since he went to make those negotiations.
Cameron could win this ballot no problem if he positioned himself that the EU still has a long way to go and we will fight for change, but need to stay in. He has been far too forgiving of it since he went to make those negotiations.
I work for a a global German company and they have told us they are not too concerned about Brexit.
"It's some additional shipping paperwork but no big deal" was what one of the board of directors said during a visit. I was really quite surprised.
So you expect people who are seeing their wages lowered to vote for a system which contributes to that?
The free movement of labour within the EU, there is a limitless supply of cheap labour.
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