Poll: The EU Referendum: How Will You Vote? (May Poll)

[Freakbro]

So you expect people who are seeing their wages lowered to vote for a system which contributes to that?

No? But if there are less of them then others, then they will lose the vote. If there's more, they win. That's democracy.

The free movement of labour within the EU, there is a limitless supply of cheap labour.

So why hasn't our unemployment rocketed, since you are saying the low skilled end of our native population can't get any work due to EU immigration?

 

[Danthus]

Because more jobs have been created?

 

[Freakbro]

Because more jobs have been created?

Then there isn't an oversupply of labour....so wages won't have been depressed by it, because by it's definition it means companies have a large pool of unemployed people to choose from to be able to leverage down pay

 

[Skunkworks]

Sargon of Akkad uploaded an good vid. 2 instances of the S word that I noticed.

 

[perky]

Just what exactly do our big firms get out of being in the EU other than the free trade deal? I'm sure there are numerous reasons but I don't have a clue. If we left then surely we would keep the free trade as with Norway?

There are harmonized standards, tariff free trade and a supply of workers to fill any skills shortage to name a few.

Norway may have full access to the internal EU market but not full access to all those the EU has done free trade deals with, only those that it has negotiated through the European Free Trade Association (in the main). Norway has to accept free movement of people and workers' rights, and potential future EU market rules, while having no say in what they are. It is also has to pay for this privilege and is the 10th largest contributor to the EU per capita. It also has significantly higher net migration levels than the UK.

Bear in mind the the Norwegians are actually very pro EU principles (they're even in the Shengen Group even though outside of the EU), but don't want to join the EU proper mainly because of fishing, farming and oil. What the people there would accept from a sharing of sovereignty point of view may completely different to what we would accept.

 

[V F]

Osborne can't get him numbers right year on year never mind predict 15 years ahead.

That report is rubbish.

He can't even get one quarter right let alone the entire year.

 

[izzop]

I work for a a global German company and they have told us they are not too concerned about Brexit.

"It's some additional shipping paperwork but no big deal" was what one of the board of directors said during a visit. I was really quite surprised.

I'm not that surprised by that.

It's not as if the company you work for are just going to up sticks because we're no longer in the EU. Likewise, I don't think that all foreign companies will stop investing in the UK should the out come be to leave.

 

[Tefal]

I know this is the general perception and is oft repeated, but apart from some small depression of wages at the bottom end of the scale, and in localised areas, the actual evidence doesn't seem to point to this effect happening in general.

"apart from the evidence its happening, the evidence doesn't show its happening"

 

[Freakbro]

"apart from the evidence its happening, the evidence doesn't show its happening"

Another person who doesn't understand 'overall effect' and averages then

 

[Tefal]

Another person who doesn't understand 'overall effect' and averages then

well what i found interesting was you used absolutes to describe the effect actually occurring but used the vague "doesn't seem to" to describe the effect not occurring.

so in your own words its definitely happening to low earners in specific areas.

But it may or may not be having an effect when averaged across the whole country.



for an analogy; i stamp on your little toe, it definitely hurts your little toe, but it doesn't seem to adversely affect your health in general.

Still doesn't mean you'd be happy with me stamping on your little toe though does it?

 

[Danthus]

Another person who doesn't understand 'overall effect' and averages then

But they don't mean anything to the people at the coal face.

"You might be worse off, but other are doing just fine!"

Doesn't really wash, this is where reality and academia don't always marry.

 

[Freakbro]

Or to use a better analogy, I will just look at the dataset that shows immigration has increased wages at the top end of the scale and then claim 'Immigration has increased wages'

Which would be equally as wrong a claim to make

 

[Danthus]

Or to use a better analogy, I will just look at the dataset that shows immigration has increased wages at the top end of the scale and then claim 'Immigration has increased wages'

Which would be equally as wrong a claim to make

But we would agree, for some people in may be better, for others, out maybe better?

 

[Freakbro]

But they don't mean anything to the people at the coal face.

"You might be worse off, but other are doing just fine!"

Doesn't really wash, this is where reality and academia don't always marry.

Then as already stated, they vote no at the referendum.

Not sure what you want the solution to be, every change always has individual winners and losers (just like in the yearly budget) it's the overall effect to the nation that is important.

 

[Freakbro]

But we would agree, for some people in may be better, for others, out maybe better?

In one narrow example, yes.

But our membership in the EU has many other facets than just that one effect on them, others with positive effects, even though they obviously will see that as an important one.


edit : anyway, I'm off to Devon, so will have to chew the cud with you another time

 

[Mr Jack]

But they don't mean anything to the people at the coal face.

"You might be worse off, but other are doing just fine!"

Doesn't really wash, this is where reality and academia don't always marry.

Let us suppose that immigration has the mild negative effect on the wages of the bottom quintile as you suggest, let us also suppose that the overall effect is positive on wages and positive on economic growth - as also suggested by the research you cite. Then I put it to you that the option of continued migration combined with policies to improve the wages and conditions of the low paid will have a better net outcome for the country and for the poorly paid, than abandoning the overall positive effects of immigration in order to prevent a negative pressure on the lowest quintile.

And, as I pointed out above, the overall negative impact of Brexit on wages and the economy is likely to have a greater negative effect on the wages and employment of the poorly paid than the mild negative effect suggested by some research anyway. So leaving the EU to reduce immigration is a poster child for "medicine worse than the disease".

 

[P4Clock]

that fact that they have lied i cheated to try and keep us in i will be voting out

 

[datalol-jack]

Let's sum this up in 47 seconds:

The BBC1 debate for young people appears to have been moved to the 26th now, but here's some more university level natter for ya to pass the time:

 

[Skunkworks]

Would we have more control over the numbers and quality of migrants In or Out?

 

[datalol-jack]

Would we have more control over the numbers and quality of migrants In or Out?

Very much debatable:
http://ner.sagepub.com/content/236/1/14.full.pdf+html
http://ner.sagepub.com/content/236/1/23.full.pdf+html

TL;DR: Since we don't have control over most push factors of skilled EU migration, and the skill base is high, higher indeed than the non-EU inflow we already have control over, the simple answer is -- no, under the most likely points based system we will put in place.

Though in the short term, 5-15 years, we may reduce the net number by 50,000 - 100,000 (under a deal that does not include free movement, so Canada-style or similar) by discouraging EU students, encouraging more emigration under recession conditions and putting up arbitrary income or legislation barriers to family re-unions.

If you think that's good enough, and that's what you're voting for -- then fair enough.