Poll: The EU Referendum: What Will You Vote? (New Poll)

Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?


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http://www.politico.eu/article/brus...button-uk-referendum-campaign-eu-legislation/

Brussels presses the hold button on Brexit
Ahead of referendum, EU seeks to avoid controversy.


European Union officials aren’t just determined to keep mum during the U.K.’s referendum campaign: They are refusing to move key legislation out of fear that they might fuel support for a Brexit. Officials and politicians said several EU initiatives have been put on ice or pushed off the agenda in an effort to avoid stirring up controversy before the June 23 referendum in Britain.

Among them are: a mid-term review of the bloc’s seven-year budget, which could result in a fight over a proposal to increase EU spending by €20 billion; the launch of the Commission’s labor mobility package, which would set out new guidelines for the freedom of movement of workers; and the EU’s accession to the European Convention on Human Rights, which the U.K. government strongly opposes, claiming it would infringe on the sovereignty of the British legal system. Even as they expressed relief this week that the U.K. and other EU countries reached a deal on reforms that British Prime Minister David Cameron said he needed in order to win the referendum vote, politicians in Brussels have resigned themselves to the fact that not much legislation will go through until after the British question is dealt with.

“There’s a kind of a deflection of attention to some issues,” said Mercedes Bresso, an Italian MEP from the Socialists and Democrats group, adding that the referendum was causing a “delay in some debates,” including on the EU’s budget. “Now is not the moment to create more problems.”

A French official called the decision to hold back on some legislative measures a “reasonable” one. “These proposals can be discussed after June without creating too many difficulties,” the official said. “In fact, it would be more problematic if we had to negotiate under the pressure of the U.K.. So, in a way, it protects the other member states as well.”


The slow lane


The Commission has until the end of 2016 to submit a review of its seven-year budget, known as the multi-annual financial framework. The European Parliament’s budgetary committee isn’t expecting to see the proposal for revisions until the autumn, to avoid a pre-referendum outcry from Euroskeptics over any proposal to give the EU more money.

“Everyone knows this is not a good time because of the problems with the U.K.,” said Pedro López de Pablo, spokesman for the center-right European People’s Party group in the Parliament. “The Commission has been very cautious on all of these things. Nowadays we’re in a public opinion environment that everyone attacks the European Union.”
But some MEPs on the budgets committee say the delay will make their oversight role more difficult by not giving them enough time to consider proposed revisions submitted by the Commission. They say they need to see the proposal now — and not in September after the referendum dust has settled and the summer break is over. “They don’t want to open the pandora’s box before the referendum,” said Polish MEP Jan Olbrycht, a member of the budgets committee. “We want the Commission to make their proposals as soon as possible. We need a serious debate about the review and the revision. There’s no time to waste.”

When it does come, that debate promises to be controversial. Siegfried Mureșan, vice chairman of the budgets committee, said MEPs are bracing for a “far reaching revision” of the remaining budget target to manage the migration crisis, which was not foreseen in 2013 when the current budget was planned. “We’re hoping for more flexibility and money in justice and home affairs, which includes security at the borders and the migration fund,” said Mureșan. “I’m hoping for more money in areas related to foreign policy, to improve the conditions on the ground of the origin of the refugees.”

EU budget fights can be counted on to stir up anti-Brussels sentiment in Britain. Cameron fought hard in 2013 to win a 3 percent cut in the EU budget — which he then touted back in the U.K. as a political victory against Brussels.

As part of this review, EU officials say the Commission and Parliament plan to ask for a €20 billion increase to the budget over its remaining three years, but they are not slated to make that announcement until July, after the referendum. Also in July, the budgets committee will present a report to the Commission on its needs. The Commission will then offer a counterproposal in the autumn.


Matching Cameron’s deal


A proposal for new EU guidelines on labor rules across the Union was supposed to have been introduced by Employment Commissioner Marianne Thyssen in December 2015, but was postponed while EU leaders debated measures on welfare benefits as part of the U.K. deal. According to a Commission spokesperson, certain elements of the so-called labor mobility package, which includes rules on social security benefits, will still be kept on hold until after the referendum. As for other measures in the package not related to the U.K. deal, the spokesperson said the Commission “reserves its possibility to come forward with such proposals as soon as they are ready.”
But on this measure, too, EU parliamentarians are complaining about the implications of the delay, even as they acknowledge the reasoning behind it. “I understand timing in politics is key, even though I’m eagerly waiting for the labor mobility package because there hasn’t been much legislative work,” said Danish MEP Ulla Tørnæs, from the ALDE group.

Measures in the package related to social security will have to be brought into line with the terms of the U.K. deal reached last week, which include new restrictions on payments to EU migrants and their children living abroad. On some measures, the EU is under pressure to speed up, rather than slow down. Cameron made a focus on competitiveness one of his key renegotiation demands, and the Commission has in recent months already worked to accommodate it with proposals to cut regulatory red tape and improve rules for capital markets. That effort is now continuing. Sources said the U.K.’s ambassador to the EU, Ivan Rogers, has been putting pressure on leaders to finish trade deals like the EU-Canada trade agreement and to make progress on the EU-U.S. Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership before the referendum — to show that the EU works.

“Part of their ask is that you use the trade power that you’ve been given,” said Emma McClarkin, a Conservative MEP on the international trade committee. “David Cameron is for making sure we deliver Canada as quickly as possible. It’s been a bit slow.”


Off the agenda altogether


Another topic that’s been put on the back burner is the EU’s accession to the European Convention of Human Rights, an international treaty on human rights that includes several European countries but not the EU as a whole. The process of signing up to the Convention has been contentious in the U.K., where conservatives say its European Court of Human Rights would infringe on the sovereignty of the British legal system. The court, which rules on complaints from individuals or countries alleging violations of the treaty, has previously held against the U.K. on such questions as banning voting rights for prisoners and the ability to deport non-EU criminals with family members living in Britain.

Cameron has pledged to make sure the U.K. is exempt from the court’s rulings, so re-examining the issue has been pushed off the EU agenda for now. A Commission spokesperson said the EU was currently in a “period of reflection” over how to proceed with the accession. But some in the Parliament’s committee on human rights are eager to see the issue debated. “The agreement has to be negotiated again,” said Cristian Preda, a Romanian MEP on the committee. “The accession of the EU to the Convention was seen from the very beginning as a very long process.”


The EU is putting on hold a lot of things they have in the pipeline knowing it will adversely effect the outcome of the referendum.
 
Do you think the companies that want to trade will just accept barriers, such as tariffs?

They'll have to for the interim but that will have consequences. Not being part of a common market clearly isn't a great place to be, and as I quoted above, it's unlikely that getting free trade deals with other EU countries without having freedom of movement is highly unlikely.
 

Given that two of their CxOs signed Cameron's letter, they should not be regarded as independent in this debate. Like I said earlier, talking down or even devaluing sterling has been a favourite tool of the establishment for keeping the population in line. Would be a shame if cheap holidays were judged as more valuable than British sovereignty
 
Viktor Orban, Hungary’s Prime Minister, has told his parliament that Cameron got nothing and reassures them that Hungarians who have not paid contributions will still get UK benefits:

“the real debate was about there being benefits which workers do not pay for, but for which they are nonetheless eligible. The question was what should happen with benefits paid to third-country nationals, for which no contributions are paid in Britain. Here, too, we have succeeded in ensuring that these social benefits cannot be taken away… This means that we have even succeeded in protecting benefits which people working in the United Kingdom did not pay for in the form of contributions.”

Quite literally, Orban is boasting that Hungarians in Britain will get something for nothing…

 
I suspect most companies are in favour of staying in because they get a nice flow of cheap labour, and don't have to worry about paying more than the law says they have to.
I know because I haven't had a decent pay rise for years, and anyone who has left has been replaced with an eastern European.

I was a supporter of the EU years ago, but it's just gotten too big now. It was fine when all the members were on roughly the same playing field, financially speaking. But when you let less wealthy members into any economic club, the others will have to lose out. It's that simple.

For those reasons alone, I'll be voting out.
 
I suspect most companies are in favour of staying in because they get a nice flow of cheap labour, and don't have to worry about paying more than the law says they have to.

Like they'd have to worry about that if we left?

Do you think minimum wage jobs will suddenly pay 20 quid an hour because we've left the EU?
 
Quite literally, Orban is boasting that Hungarians in Britain will get something for nothing…
And this is one of my issues being in the EU...

I appreciate transferring wealth from western Europe across to the east makes sense in the "long term humanity plan" however in the short term e.g. my lifetime that doesn't look like a good thing.

At the end of the day I care about my lifestyle for the next 50 years. Not the benefits of some family in a foreign country as is the standing of most individuals.
 
[TW]Fox;29213451 said:
Like they'd have to worry about that if we left?

Do you think minimum wage jobs will suddenly pay 20 quid an hour because we've left the EU?

If we do leave the EU then I think the most likely outcome will be that any EU citizens residing in the UK will be allowed to stay and there will be controls imposed on new migrants. In the short term it's unlikely that the supply of labour will change much, however in the medium term I'd expect that supply does drop and employers will have to offer increased pay and better terms and conditions if they want to attract and retain employees.
 
[TW]Fox;29213451 said:
Like they'd have to worry about that if we left?

Do you think minimum wage jobs will suddenly pay 20 quid an hour because we've left the EU?

This... all day...

I cannot Fathom why you think it will change if the Uk left.
 
If we do leave the EU then I think the most likely outcome will be that any EU citizens residing in the UK will be allowed to stay and there will be controls imposed on new migrants. In the short term it's unlikely that the supply of labour will change much, however in the medium term I'd expect that supply does drop and employers will have to offer increased pay and better terms and conditions if they want to attract and retain employees.

Who will impose the limits?

Why will employers have to offer higher wages when the NMW is written in to law?

It is so naive to think otherwise.
 
Who will impose the limits?

Why will employers have to offer higher wages when the NMW is written in to law?

It is so naive to think otherwise.

The Home Office will be responsible for imposing those limits.

Because there won't be such an oversupply of labour, employers will have to increase pay and conditions at the lower end of their workforce if they want to attract new employees and retain good existing employees.

There's nothing naive about the above lol. Why do you think it is?
 
The Home Office will be responsible for imposing those limits.

Because there won't be such an oversupply of labour, employers will have to increase pay and conditions at the lower end of their workforce if they want to attract new employees and retain good existing employees.

There's nothing naive about the above lol. Why do you think it is?

Because IN IN IN?
 

Probably will happen in the short term. 20% might be a bit drastic. Not a bad thing though;

Wouldn't that be good for British exports?

Exactly. Also could do wonders for domestic businesses.

If we come out I can see it going one of two ways. We get a new deal within the EU (I do believe that don't want us gone completely, so maybe a form of trade deal). Think this would happen pretty swiftly. Pound improves.

Or EU falls apart... Pound to the Euro would look quite nice then.

Either way it will only be a relative short term thing. We did just fine when we didn't adopt the Euro...
 
Its also worth considering, everyone looks at the fall the £ may take.

Anyone stopped to consider a brexit will cause the euro to faceplant into the abyss?
 
Wouldn't that be good for British exports?

I'd guess most companies that export products first have to import the materials in, maybe not directly but somewhere along the line there will be import involved. So not really if they can't effort to purchase from abroad in the first place or it will cost them more to purchase.

Its also worth considering, everyone looks at the fall the £ may take.

Anyone stopped to consider a brexit will cause the euro to faceplant into the abyss?

Euro will drop as well but doubt it will drop anywhere as much as pound. EU and Euro will still be considered fairly strong. UK and pound on other hand will be complete unknown, nobody will know how the country will be run and how business will cope with all the changes.
 
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Quite literally, Orban is boasting that Hungarians in Britain will get something for nothing…

At the end of the day I care about my lifestyle for the next 50 years. Not the benefits of some family in a foreign country as is the standing of most individuals.

But the majority aren't getting something for nothing for being a family in a foreign country. They are getting in work benefits for working here in the UK, just like the other UK workers get.

Ok, there is the Child Benefit issue, but's it's such a small issue it's hardly worth getting worked up about. Even paying it at the rate of the home country throws up odd quirks, that some people would end up getting more! Also, the amount it will take to administer would probably be more than any savings made.

[TW]Fox;29213451 said:
Like they'd have to worry about that if we left?

Do you think minimum wage jobs will suddenly pay 20 quid an hour because we've left the EU?

No, but saying £20 an hour is just being silly, but if locals aren't willing to work at some of the crappy jobs for NMW then the employers will have to raise wages to entice UK workers in. Even the reports that say immigration hasn't overall affected wages, do acknowledge there has been a small downward pressure on the low skilled manual labour end of the market, and this would be corrected if we didn't have the Eastern Europeans to do it.
 
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