Poll: The EU Referendum: What Will You Vote? (New Poll)

[datalol-jack]

neither side has - like I said you're asking for a crystal ball there

Not really.

The In campaign has:

• Treaties going all the way back to the EEC
• EU's current trade deals we have access to
• UK's special exemptions
• The newly negotiated deal with known text and process for ratification in the EUP
• Policy documents and proceeding of the EUP, recorded and available for access
• Our trade figures and forecasts for future trade
• Our estimated and historic contribution figures
• Our current and forecast migration figures
• Our Government's stance on the above
• Clear and legally binding exit protocol, with a non-negotiable time period and red-lines from the EC, which to take apart and rightly highlight as a big risk
• EC status on the above -- they want us in on the condition of the deal that was agreed

A pretty good idea of the status quo. Might get a Eurozone treasury set-up, might not. Might get an agreement on wider participation in the European battle group, might not. But the core is there, and it shall remain. What our government then gets up to in Europe is down to them, and the people who shall vote for them. I doubt Cameron will rock the boat much on his way out upon a successful In vote.

What does the other side have?

...

An economically illiterate promise -- their grand, fact-free charade:

• Wish for a plan that unfortunately cannot be given since too much is uncertain
• No firm comittments on stances re migration and trade, since they are hopelessly split
• No power to put anything they say into effect
• Some alarmist media claptrap, and more of the same from the old dinosaurs that lost in '72
• Politicians you would not take advice from even if your nation was purely in your head, and it was a mental asylum

Hmm. Which is the leap in the dark? In my view, the Leave campaign should start writing something down other than inane, regurgitated critique of the stuff that is easily checked and in the public domain already.

If they choose to fight ancient battles, blare megaphone propaganda and make wild claims against the status quo -- the burden of proof rests with them.

 

[Destination]

I did find that insidious vampric creature Michael Howard's POV interesting.

Vote, OUT, so after we vote OUT, Europe come crawling to us with a better deal.
WTF?
Madness, utter madness if he truly believes this is the way forward.

 

[dowie]

Not really.

yes really - neither camp knows for sure what trade would look like with non-EU nations if the UK was outside the EU. It is not know what trade would look like with the EU in that event either. There is just the trade with the EU in the event we stay in the EU and the proposal that that shouldn't change too much and would present a better scenario than the alternative (which has more uncertainty).

 

[Roar87]

Not sure why the UK leaving the EU is a risk, we have the Worlds 6th largest economy, I think some how we'll manage on our own.

 

[McPhee]

Can anyone point me in the direction of EU immigration figures in/out of the UK broken down by country?

I'm curious. Just trying to work out how net migration would realistically change after we negotiate new treaties with 'desirable' nations like Germany, France and the Netherlands.

 

[datalol-jack]

Can anyone point me in the direction of EU immigration figures in/out of the UK broken down by country?

I'm curious. Just trying to work out how net migration would realistically change after we negotiate new treaties with 'desirable' nations like Germany, France and the Netherlands.

Knock yourself out (these have been posted before, but few people cared till now):
http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statis...rant_population_statistics#Migrant_population
https://www.nomisweb.co.uk/census/2011/all_tables - CTRL+F; country of origin; click on the table ID of interest; select options from the drop-down menus, click generate table
http://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...erlyreport/february2016#immigration-to-the-uk - doesn't have a detailed breakdown, but has useful links to other ONS sources; can't give more detailed links atm since pages appear to be down :\ lots of people must be hitting them, lol; just go to the main site an search 'migration by country'
http://www.migrationobservatory.ox....migrants-living-uk-and-rest-eu-2011-eu-census - graph from the census; there're other reports where it came from

Not sure why the UK leaving the EU is a risk, we have the Worlds 6th largest economy, I think some how we'll manage on our own.

We went down one place already? Oh my!

yes really - neither camp knows for sure what trade would look like with non-EU nations if the UK was outside the EU. It is not know what trade would look like with the EU in that event either. There is just the trade with the EU in the event we stay in the EU and the proposal that that shouldn't change too much and would present a better scenario than the alternative (which has more uncertainty).

What's the difference between a reasonable forecast from the latest data and market indicators and an article of faith? One you can take to investors, the other will get you jailed for fraud!

The Out have the latter -- and it is a leap in the dark! They're not even pretending it isn't; they just hope the people 'trust' their politicians more.

I did find that insidious vampric creature Michael Howard's POV interesting.

Vote, OUT, so after we vote OUT, Europe come crawling to us with a better deal.
WTF?
Madness, utter madness if he truly believes this is the way forward.

He's still alive? *chews on a spider* Hisss, I sense it, master cometh! Lol He'll certainly need more than that in the debates.

 

[Roar87]

What's the difference between a reasonable forecast from the latest data and market indicators and an article of faith? One you can take to investors, the other will get you jailed for fraud!

The Out have the latter -- and it is a leap in the dark! They're not even pretending it isn't; they just hope the people 'trust' their politicians more

I don't see what why we need to trust anyone or why it's a "leap in the dark!!!111", the UK is a large 1st world economy, we're not strapping Britain to a rocket and aiming for Mars, we would be absolutely fine on our own.

 

[datalol-jack]

I don't see what why we need to trust anyone or why it's a "leap in the dark!!!111", the UK is a large 1st world economy, we're not strapping Britain to a rocket and aiming for Mars, we would be absolutely fine on our own.

Sound plan, fellow, sound plan!

 

[dowie]

What's the difference between a reasonable forecast from the latest data and market indicators and an article of faith? One you can take to investors, the other will get you jailed for fraud!

forecasting is dubious under many circumstances even when you've got good data, in this instance there isn't any good forecast either way to show how better or worse we'd be in or out of the EU - to argue otherwise is naive and silly as the data simply doesn't exist

 

[Roar87]

Sound plan, fellow, sound plan!

I don't need a plan, I'm not paid to make a plan. That's the job of people much more educated on those specific issues. On the face of it though, the UK is a rich country with a large economy, it's not likely to change because we decide we don't want our laws being decided by people from Europe

 

[datalol-jack]

forecasting is dubious under many circumstances even when you've got good data, in this instance there isn't any good forecast either way to show how better or worse we'd be in or out of the EU - to argue otherwise is naive and silly as the data simply doesn't exist

So, you would walk into a debate without any plan, and hope anyone believes you? Do try. What we have is fine for a forecast, more so than the Out's Malaysian/Australian hybrid country model. Fermi estimation at worst vs a unicorn fantasy? I'll take a Fermi estimation.

 

[Zethor]

I don't need a plan, I'm not paid to make a plan. That's the job of people much more educated on those specific issues. On the face of it though, the UK is a rich country with a large economy, it's not likely to change because we decide we don't want our laws being decided by people from Europe

But did you know that much more educated people believe an exit will be harmful to Britain?

 

[datalol-jack]

I don't need a plan, ...

Glad you finally admit to your life's creed, Roar! At least your are more honest than the Leave lot who proclaim they have something... A VISION, in fact!

Rich countries go bust too. I'm not expecting Dawn of the Dead, or would forecast it, but it's fun to poke at this side of Out.

 

[Outcast]

But did you know that much more educated people believe an exit will be harmful to Britain?

Bull****

 

[dowie]

So, you would walk into a debate without any plan, and hope anyone believes you?

I'm not even sure what you're talking about now - I'm pointing out that neither side knows for sure whether we'd be better or worse off

Do try. What we have is fine for a forecast, more so than the Out's Malaysian/Australian hybrid country model. Fermi estimation at worst vs a unicorn fantasy? I'll take a Fermi estimation.

no we don't - you don't know how any trade talks would fare with the EU upon exiting the EU or what trade deals would be made with countries not in the EU... you're dealing with unknown events which can't realistically be estimated as they're dependent on all sorts of irrational and rational actions by numerous actors

 

[Nate--IRL--]

no we don't - you don't know how any trade talks would fare with the EU upon exiting the EU or what trade deals would be made with countries not in the EU... you're dealing with unknown events which can't realistically be estimated as they're dependent on all sorts of irrational and rational actions by numerous actors

That kind of uncertainty can't possibly be good for the UK.

Nate

 

[dowie]

That kind of uncertainty can't possibly be good for the UK.

which is why it is perhaps better to have the referendum sooner rather than later

 

[Nate--IRL--]

which is why it is perhaps better to have the referendum sooner rather than later

Rock and hard place really.... Personally I'd only have a referendum after the concessions won from the negotiations are in law, and not as nebulous as they are now.

I realise that won't happen though.

Nate

 

[scorza]

Rock and hard place really.... Personally I'd only have a referendum after the concessions won from the negotiations are in law, and not as nebulous as they are now.

I realise that won't happen though.

Nate

Speaking of the thin gruel deal - it's looking increasingly likely that Gove was correct when he said it wasn't legally binding and was open to challenge in the ECJ. We've also got the leader of the second largest group in the European Parliament (Socialists) stating that they'll never accept the emergency brake. Source

I'll tell you something else as well - if we do vote to stay in the EU, and then the thin gruel deal gets watered down some more or even poured straight down the drain, they're not going to let us re-run the referendum.

 

[Nate--IRL--]

Are there treaty changes required to accommodate the Deal?

Nate