Poll: The EU Referendum: What Will You Vote? (New Poll)

Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?

  • Total voters
    1,204
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Zethor said:
But did you know that much more educated people believe an exit will be harmful to Britain?
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not true. some do, some don't.

there are many opinions - to believe that stupid people think we should leave and intelligent people think we should stay is wrong, patronising and frankly insulting to many people.
we need to deal in facts as this is a very difficult decision with pluses and minuses on both sides.
 
dowie said:
I'm not even sure what you're talking about now - I'm pointing out that neither side knows for sure whether we'd be better or worse off
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My rum-addled eye could've still been sighting Roar, but I think he's read it anyway and replied. :o But!

dowie said:
no we don't - you don't know how any trade talks would fare with the EU upon exiting the EU or what trade deals would be made with countries not in the EU... you're dealing with unknown events which can't realistically be estimated as they're dependent on all sorts of irrational and rational actions by numerous actors
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Unknown or uncertain? You can hardly claim that we have no clue what the default negotiating positions of the EC and our most significant non-EU partners are. Estimating for the rest of the non-EU group wouldn't even be necessary; they are what, like ~11% of our imports/exports?

What's making things more complicated than they should be is our stance on free movement. Might as well flip a coin on that one for now, based on the polling, and forecast both for the globalist stance (known association options) and the populist stance (EFTA or the magic free-movement-free deal based on the EFTA).

Now, you may be dismissive of uncertainty analysis and non-linear models, but still: why can't the Leave campaign prepare at least a draft of their rational responses to rational options only? Isn't this what a part of any credible manifesto should be composed of? It wouldn't be hard.

They have the same access to information as the other guys. For most of their supporters, a document at the level of a business plan would do. Saying nothing on the issue is what creates the black chasm into which they are asking us to leap in the first place. There's no agreement on anything, unknown or uncertain, in their ranks.

Would you give them any money or trust? I wouldn't. They are arguing on the point of political ideals. And that's indeed something you can't quantify to feed into any sensible model I know of.:o
 
Zethor said:
But did you know that much more educated people believe an exit will be harmful to Britain?
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Have you got anything to back that up? I have seen some very intelligent arguments for out, obviously if you are sticking to In echo chambers then you may just see the silly arguments you can all laugh at but a bit of wider reading can show intelligent arguments on both sides.
 
RDM said:
Have you got anything to back that up? I have seen some very intelligent arguments for out, obviously if you are sticking to In echo chambers then you may just see the silly arguments you can all laugh at but a bit of wider reading can show intelligent arguments on both sides.
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Look in the speakers corner? From what I vaguely recall in the early stages of this thread, we've had some polls showing social grades, income and educational levels; and the FT article talking about the 28 economists siding with Remain's argument vs 7-9 for Leave (FT's survey/request for comment). Oh, and there was concern about European research funding for our universities -- guess you can class it as a 'more educated' concern vs wider society.

But it's been a while.
 
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datalol-jack said:
Look in the speakers corner? From what I vaguely recall in the early stages of this thread, we've had some polls showing social grades, income and educational levels; and the FT article talking about the 28 economists siding with Remain's argument vs 7-9 for Leave (FT's survey/request for comment).

But it's been a while.
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Frankly the sanctimonious "all out voters are dim" rubbish is starting to make me think I am backing the wrong side with in.
 
datalol-jack said:
Unknown or uncertain? You can hardly claim that we have no clue what the default negotiating positions of the EC and our most significant non-EU partners are.
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What are they then? For example supposing the UK didn't want to join the EEA either and voted out what tariffs would we apply to vehicles from the EU and what tariffs would they apply to UK vehicles exported to the EU?

you don't even have the referendum result yet, you've got no idea what would emerge from it.

Estimating for the rest of the non-EU group wouldn't even be necessary; they are what, like ~11% of our imports/exports?
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this is again something that could very easily change depending on what trade deals are arranged - and we don't know for sure what trade deals the UK would arrange with either the EU or non EU countries whether they're current big trading partners or not
 
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aardvark said:
not true. some do, some don't.

there are many opinions - to believe that stupid people think we should leave and intelligent people think we should stay is wrong, patronising and frankly insulting to many people.
we need to deal in facts as this is a very difficult decision with pluses and minuses on both sides.
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Nationalists, isolationists, Empire melancholics, xenophobes, racists along with the ignorant/stupid pretty much covers the leave camp. Feel free to prove me wrong by showing us a serious analysis that favours Brexit.

RDM said:
Have you got anything to back that up? I have seen some very intelligent arguments for out, obviously if you are sticking to In echo chambers then you may just see the silly arguments you can all laugh at but a bit of wider reading can show intelligent arguments on both sides.
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http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/EA022.pdf
http://www.global-counsel.co.uk/sys...Global_Counsel_Impact_of_Brexit_June_2015.pdf
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/1a86ab36-afbe-11e5-b955-1a1d298b6250.html#axzz41J7rJ892
 
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RDM said:
Frankly the sanctimonious "all out voters are dim" rubbish is starting to make me think I am backing the wrong side with in.
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They are not all dim; it's just that if you're dim and poor, you are more likely to vote out as a form of protest against the establishment, from the data released so far. Why pollsters care? Well, they always provide these breakdowns of their samples, which are supposed to be representative of and weighted to the general population. Media on the left and the right then spreads what it spreads.

Ask them.
 
dowie said:
What are they then? For example supposing the UK didn't want to join the EEA either and voted out what tariffs would we apply to vehicles from the EU and what tariffs would they apply to UK vehicles exported to the EU?

you don't even have the referendum result yet, you've got no idea what would emerge from it.

this is again something that could very easily change depending on what trade deals are arranged - and we don't know for sure what trade deals the UK would arrange with either the EU or non EU countries whether they're current big trading partners or not
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We've thought about this since 2013, if not earlier; here's a parliamentary brief on the subject: http://www.parliament.uk/briefing-papers/sn06730.pdf; perfect -- no? complete -- no? estimated in many parts, from known data only -- yes; hard to do to a high standard given the uncertainty now -- possibly, depends on what news comes out during the referendum itself re our partners' and business plans; good enough for a Fermi estimation at least? Sure.

So, taking the default position, and the rational option that the EU do not wish to hurt us:
~10% for cars by the EU.
~6.5% by us.

I'll eat my hat if it's significantly out beyond these, in the event we do end up with the worst possible, tariff-laden deal.
 
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doesn't matter how much you 'think' about it - you've got no way of knowing for sure... trying to forecast predictions for individual tariffs is futile. You've also got no idea how trade will change with countries outside the EU who'd be quite happy to try and replace certain EU expeorts
 
dowie said:
doesn't matter how much you 'think' about it - you've got no way of knowing for sure... trying to forecast predictions for individual tariffs is futile. You've also got no idea how trade will change with countries outside the EU who'd be quite happy to try and replace certain EU expeorts
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Not a fan of simulation? Okay. You have to give people 'good enough' at least, not 'knowing for sure' in this referendum on the Leave side, I'm afraid. The time frames are what they are.

Permit me a tipsy analogy: If, in the worst case, you had some idea that the chasm you're leaping over wasn't likely to be deep enough to kill you, you might commit. Especially if your personal best and personal worst for a running jump gave you some confidence of your success. And you also knew the people you were with would look for you and notify the emergency services -- they planned for the worst.

As an In supporter, however, I'll take our EU membership -- the equivalent of going back home, getting more people and tools, and starting on the construction of a proper bridge to span the gap instead. Not as exciting? Sure. But miles more worthwhile!:)
 
Zethor said:
Nationalists, isolationists, Empire melancholics, xenophobes, racists along with the ignorant/stupid pretty much covers the leave camp. Feel free to prove me wrong by showing us a serious analysis that favours Brexit.
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Yeah the 636 who voted in the poll of this thread are all racist. It can only be that!
 
Call me whatever you want, I will be voting to leave the EU. Brexit is the only moral option we have left. The EU has become a joke of an organisation which far from protect Europe has overseen it's demise.
 
RDM said:
Frankly the sanctimonious "all out voters are dim" rubbish is starting to make me think I am backing the wrong side with in.
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Well that argument has been offered by the "out" camp as well. Can't remember who, but someone posted along the lines of "How dense do you have to be want to stay in the EU?"

Would expect nothing less here :)
 
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