is that 5% GDP back based on the free trade or is that 5% of our gdp from trade with the EU? as if we lost 1% of that 5% through tariff, but we gain that % back from not paying fees then theres no net loss.
because putting tariffs on the uk could be equally devastating for the EU so shortly after losing such a massive net contributor to their funding, so we could possibly negotiate to keep that agreement or a similar one.
its not like a leave will be instant there will likely be an entire parliament of managed negotiations for the leave before we finally exit.
there's too much at stake on both sides for childish snap desicions
projected by who? given the recent failings in the EU economies we could be seeing fees go up massively to help deal with bailouts.
Fair enough re foreign aid. I'm looking into the bailouts etc. later in the week. Hopefully there will be more info soon. Although our present stance is not to get involved in anything outside our main contribution to the EFSM. PM was making similar noises regarding this issue too.
The trade benefit figure is quoted as the direct consequence of the free trade arrangements within the EU. You're also assuming that whatever trade deals we arrange with the EU during and after our exit would make an equivalent return. What's the source of your belief? To me it looks like a huge gamble.
Further, considering Germany, France and Italy are footing the majority of the bill for our rebate year-on-year, I'd be sceptical of what terms they offer post Brexit for the transition and final trade deal. How much goodwill and understanding of our situation will there be? If you have something reassuring to offer, please do share.
As for tariffs, if Germany and co. can hardball Russia, they can hardball us just as well economically on Brexit terms: as an island nation we want their goods, and can't do without them -- and no, not just the BMWs! Imposing tariffs won't hurt them as much as it will hurt us. Plus we might end up paying the banking fee we didn't want to, nor have to atm, on top of that, which would balance their trade losses, but it will leave us worse off.
In the EU we have a chance to avoid both of these disadvantages and press for more benefits when we finally diversify our economy (yeah, yeah, I know it's been slow going on this front) whilst retaining our traditional advantages in banking, financial services, research and high-tech industries (all four rely heavily on both the free movement of people and resources).
eh?
they?
They being the Leave campaign.
Britain’s contribution to the European Union budget is set to be £3.1 billion higher
That figure has been thrown about, sure, but a short-term variation in the
forecast doesn't a trend make in actual monies paid. It isn't representative of mid-term and long-term projections either. Treasury and the EU budget honchos expect it to fall overall. The OBR forecast is also frequently revised. Expect more from Osborne on this later on.
And finally, even according to a more populist source - DM, the variation is explained easily by OBR:
Much of the change in contributions for next year come because Britain will get a lower than expected rebate on money paid in 2014 because it received more from EU structural funds than anticipated.
They just don't highlight it all that much since it goes against their narrative, since structural funds are targeted at reducing regional income disparities.
More about the fund in question:
http://ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/en/funding/
You want to criticise them for wanting to actually decrease inequality? I wouldn't.
Should we keep reforming EU funding with our partners? Yes! Should we abandon ship just because things aren't perfect - no!
And they are quoted on both sides of the argument, being a large industry body and all. 